News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

“Time heals what reason cannot”

– Seneca

 

Deutsche Bank roll begins today. They will be rolling long Nov 2013 bean positions to Nov 2014. Traders expect they will roll 3,000- 4,000 contracts a day usually on the close. DB roll ends Oct 8th .

 

Overnight closes

  • SX up 7 at 1275
  • CZ down a ½ at 438 ½
  • WZ up 2 ¼ at 683 ½
  • KC WZ up 3 ¾ at 748 ¾
  • SMZ up 4.10 at 407.40
  • BOZ down 8 at 4019
  • RRX down 4.50 at 1493

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 15,885
  • CZ 22,817
  • WZ 5,907
  • KC WZ 722
  • SMZ 9,519
  • BOZ 14,874
  • RRX 75

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 6-8 higher
  • Corn mixed
  • Wheat 1-3 higher
  • KC wheat 2-4 higher
  • Meal 3.50 -4.50 higher
  • Bean oil  steady to 10 lower
  • Rice 3-5 lower

 

Dollar and stock market lower. Gold, silver, and crude higher.

 

Nikkei down 2.169%

Hang Seng up .545%

 

ECB leaves interest rates unchanged at .5% as expected

 

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday

  • Crude a build of 4.5 MB expecting a build of 2.3 MB
  • Gas a build of 3.3 MB expecting a draw of 600K
  • Distillates a draw of 1.6 MB expecting a draw of 800K

 

China markets closed through Monday. There will be no Chinese bean auction tomorrow due to holiday

 

Palm oil down 17

 

Hearing some Chinese importers were pricing US soybeans yesterday

 

Egypt Meditrade canceled tender for 20K sunflower oil for Oct/Nov shipment

 

Egypt FIHC seeks 40K bean oil for Nov shipment

 

Brazil still eyeing US HRW wheat for Oct/Nov shipment

 

Brazil also seeking Canadian wheat for Nov-Dec shipment

 

South Korea NOFI canceled tender for 140K optional origin corn for March shipment due to high prices

 

South Korea NOFI bought 52K Black Sea origin corn for March shipment

 

South Korea FLC bought 63K optional origin corn for March shipment

 

South Korea millers bought 11K US DDGS for Nov / Dec shipment

 

South Korea MFG bought 55K South American soymeal for Nov-Dec shipment

 

South Korea KFA bought 20K Indian soymeal for Dec shipment

 

South Korea KFA bought 24K US meal for Dec-Jan shipment

 

South Korea millers have bought 209K tons of meal over the past 2 days

 

Japan seeks 55,640 feed wheat and 36,320 barley via SBS tender for Jan-March shipment

 

TALK of good demand for US soymeal for Jan 2014 forward

 

Kazakhstan Ag Min said Kazakhstan July 1- Oct 1 grain exports by rail at 1.59 MMT vs. 2.06 MMT

 

Analysts estimating India’s ‘13/14 bean crop at 10.5-11.5 MMT vs. USDA estimate of 12.3 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 crop of 11.5 MMT

 

Argentina has no wheat to offer in the short term.

 

Better than expected US bean yields being reported.

 

EU rapeseed futures up 2.7% – EU proposed higher import taxes on Argentina and Indonesian biodiesel

 

Asian rice harvest has started

 

Analysts said Thailand rice stocks are at 17.0 MMT , record for this time of year

 

Vietnam exported 5.48 MMT of rice between Jan – Sept down 12.3% from a year ago

 

Good corn harvest weather through tomorrow. Rains in the forecast Thursday – Saturday, next week forecast dry.

 

Wet weather in Russia and the Ukraine causing winter grain planting delays

 

Improving soybean planting weather in Mato Grosso, Brazil

 

Somar said September Brazilian rainfall below normal

 

Argentine major soybean , corn , and northern wheat areas need rain

 

Rains in southern Argentina wheat areas

 

Nov bean 100 day moving average is 1282

 

Nov bean 200 day moving average is 1274 ¼

 

Dec wheat 100 day moving average is 679 ¼

 

Dec corn low overnight 435 – lowest since Aug 2010

 

Oil World from yesterday

  • Said Argentina and Brazil farmers are delaying corn and bean planting due to dry weather
  • Said Argentine corn planting is 5% complete vs. 10% a year ago
  • Said Mato Grosso, Brazil needs more rain in the next 2-4 weeks
  • Said Parana Brazil corn planting is 25% complete
  • Said Rio Grande do Sul corn planting is 40% complete
  • Estimated Global ‘13/14 sunflower output at 39.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 40.2 MMT due to harvest delays in Ukraine and Russia
  • Said Russia Volga valley (Russia’s main growing area) sunflower harvest is 2% complete vs. 33% a year ago
  • Estimated Spain’s ‘13/14 sunflower production at 880K tons vs. previous estimate of 1.03 MMT
  • Estimated EU ‘13/14 sunflower production at 8.4 MMT vs. previous estimate of 8.6 MMT
  • Estimated Argentina’s ‘13/14 sunflower production at 3.2 MMT vs. 3.5 MMT previous estimate
  • Estimated ‘13/14 global canola crop at 66.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 65.0 MMT due to improved crop in Canada
  • Estimated ‘13/14 EU canola production at 20.9 MMT higher than previous estimate

 

Rabobank price forecasts

  • Corn 4th quarter forecasted at $4.35
  • Corn 1st quarter forecasted at $4.45
  • Bean 4th quarter forecasted at $12.25
  • Bean 1st quarter forecasted at $12.50
  • Wheat 4th quarter forecasted at $6.35
  • Wheat 1st quarter forecasted at $6.40

 

FC Stone 2013 US corn and bean estimate updates from yesterday

  • FC Stone estimated 2013 US corn crop at 14.15 BB vs. their September estimate of 13.942 BB and vs. USDA September estimate of 13.843 BB
  • FC Stone estimated 2013 US corn yield at 158.7 BPA vs. their September estimate of 156.4 BPA and vs. USDA September estimate of 155.3 BPA – expecting 157-158 BPA

o    Estimated IL 2013 corn yield at 178.0 BPA vs. previous estimate of 172.0 BPA and vs. USDA September estimate of 165.0 BPA

o    Estimated IA 2013 corn yield at 163.0 BPA vs. previous estimate of 161.0 BPA and vs. USDA September estimate of 162.0 BPA

o    Estimated IN 2013 corn yield at 174.0 BPA vs. previous estimate of 176.0 BPA

o    Estimated MI 2013 corn yield at 167.0 BPA vs. previous estimate of 157.0 BPA

o    Estimated WI 2013 corn yield at 143.0 BPA vs. previous estimate of 137.0 BPA

  • FC Stone estimated 2013 US bean crop at 3.163 BB vs. their September estimate of 3.146 BB and vs. USDA September estimate of 3.149 BB
  • FC Stone estimated 2013 US bean yield at 41.4 BPA vs. their September estimate of 41.2 BPA and vs. September USDA estimate of 41.2 BPA – expecting about 42.0 BPA

o    Estimated IL 2013 bean yield at 48.5 BPA vs. September estimate of 45.0 BPA vs. September USDA estimate of 46.0 BPA

o    Estimated IA 2013 bean yield at 41.7 BPA vs. September estimate of 40.0 BPA and vs. USDA September estimate of 43.0 BPA

o    Estimated IN 2013 bean yield at 49.5 BPA vs. September estimate of 51.0 BPA

 

Brazil Trade Ministry – Brazilian September exports from yesterday

  • Beans 3.47 MMT vs. 5.38 MMT in August and vs. 1.68 MMT in Sept 2012
  • Meal 1.41 MMT vs. 1.25 MMT in August and vs. 1.39 MMT in Sept 2012
  • Bean oil 177,500 tons vs. 92,800 tons in August and vs. 110,700 tons in Sept 2012
  • Corn 3.45 MMT vs. 3.05 MMT in August and vs. 3.15 MMT in Sept 2012

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CZ 725,242 open, down 2,624
  • Total corn 1,182,948 open, up 12,507
  • SX 321,773 open, down 5,924
  • Total beans 617,159 open, down 5,351
  • SMV 5,996 open, down 1,255
  • SMZ 154,161 open, down 1,672
  • Total meal 259,411 open, up 547
  • BOV 5,023 open, down 780
  • BOZ 179,296 open, down 1,450
  • Total bean oil 305,668 open, up 388
  • WZ 236,358 open, down 3,097
  • Total wheat 356,899 open, down 2,434
  • KC WZ 95,493 open, down 1,026
  • Total KC wheat 151,709 open, down 1,035

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly DOE #s come out today at 930 am CDT expecting
    • Crude a build of 2.5 MB
    • Gas a draw of 700,000
    • Distillates a draw of 1.0 MB
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out today at 930 am CDT
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT – may be delayed due to US government shutdown
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT – may be delayed due to US government shutdown
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT
  • Informa should be coming out later this week with their 2013 US crop estimate updates . There previous estimates were
    • US corn crop at 13.889 BB
    • US corn yield at 157.6 BPA
    • US bean crop at 3.224 BB
    • US bean yield at 42.4 BPA
  • US unemployment comes out on Friday at 730 am CDT – Unemployment may be delayed due to US government shutdown
  • Stats Canada comes out on Friday at 730 am CDT with 2013 Canadian crop estimates. Expecting
    • All wheat average estimate 32.9 MMT vs. Stats Can previous estimate of 30.56 MMT and vs. 2012 crop of 27.21 MMT
    • Durum average estimate 5.7 MMT vs. Stats Can previous estimate of 5.12 MMT and vs. 2012 crop of 4.63 MMT
    • Canola average estimate 16.6 MMT vs. Stats Can previous estimate of 14.73 MMT and vs. 2012 crop of 13.87 MMT
    • Oats average estimate 3.2 MMT vs. Stats Can previous estimate of 2.91 MMT and vs. 2012 crop of 2.81 MMT
    • Soybeans average estimate 4.9 MMT vs. Stats Can previous estimate of 4.798 MMT and vs. 2012 crop of 4.93 MMT
    • Corn average estimate 13.2 MMT vs. Stats Can previous estimate of 13.08 MMT and vs. 2012 crop of 13.06 MMT
    • Barley average estimate 9.5 MMT vs. Stats Can previous estimate of 8.81 MMT and vs. 2012 crop of 8.01 MMT
    • Flaxseed average estimate 668,000 tons vs. Stats Can previous estimate of 615,000 tons and vs. 2012 crop of 489,000 tons
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins Oct 7th and lasts for 5 days they will be rolling long Nov positions into Jan
  • CONAB comes out on Oct 8th with their first estimates for Brazil’s ‘13/14 crops.
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board comes out on Oct 10th with their September palm oil data report. In August
    • Palm oil output was 1.74 MMT
    • Palm oil exports were 1.52 MMT
    • Palm oil stocks were 1.67 MMT
  • USDA crop report comes out Oct 11th – if US government shutdown continues this report may be delayed.
  • Last trading day for Oct futures is Oct 14th. Futures expire at noon CDT
  • NOPA September crush report comes out on Oct 15th at 11 am CDT
  • Elections in Argentina in October

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg