News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

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USDA announced 113K tons of US beans sold to China for ‘13/14 delivery

 

FC Stone comes out today after the close with their 2013 US crop estimate updates. Previous estimates from FC Stone were

  • 2013 US corn crop estimated at 13.942 BB vs. USDA estimate of 13.843 BB
  • 2013 US corn yield estimated at 156.4 BPA vs. USDA estimate of 155.3 BPA
  • 2013 US bean crop estimated at 3.146 BB vs. USDA estimate of 3.149 BPA
  • 2013 US bean yield estimated at 41.2 BPA unchanged from the USDA estimate

 

Today is the beginning of a new month and a new quarter

 

Overnight closes

  • SX down 15 ¼ at 1267 ½
  • CZ down 1 at 440 ½
  • WZ down 1 ¾ at 676 ¾
  • KC WZ down 2 ½ at 737
  • SMZ down 5.90 at 399.50
  • BOZ down 20 at 4090
  • RRX down 7.50 at 1505.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 26,233
  • CZ 21,209
  • WZ 9,267
  • KC WZ 1,844
  • SMZ 10,814
  • BOZ 8,750
  • RRX 131

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 13-16 lower
  • Corn 1-2 lower
  • Wheat 1-3 lower
  • KC wheat 2-4 lower
  • Meal 5.50-6.50 lower
  • Bean oil  15-25 lower
  • Rice 6-8 lower

 

USDA offices shutdown due to US government partial shutdown

 

Crude, gold, silver, and dollar lower. Stock market higher

 

Nikkei up .200%

Hang Seng down 1.496%

 

September mfg PMIs

  • China 51.1 expecting 51.5 and vs. 51.0 in August
  • Eurozone 51.1 vs. flash of 51.1 and vs. 51.4 in August
  • German 51.1 vs. flash of 51.3 and vs. 51.8 in August
  • UK 56.7 expecting 57.3 and vs. 57.2 in August
  • France 49.8 vs. flash of 49.5 and vs. 49.7 in August
  • Spain 50.7 vs. 51.1 in August
  • Greek 47.5 vs. 48.7 in August

 

German jobless claims +25K expecting – 5K and vs. +9K in August

 

Chinese markets are closed through October 7th

 

Palm oil up 9

 

South Korea FLC bought 25K tons of Indian soymeal for Jan shipment

 

South Korea FLC bought 55K tons of US soymeal for Feb shipment

 

Israel seeks 40K optional origin corn for Dec – Jan shipment

 

Bangladesh seeks 50K optional origin wheat for Oct-Nov shipment

 

Societe Generale said corn prices may recover to above $5 , due to good demand from lower prices

 

State farm and ranch federation Famato said as of Sept 27th Mato Grosso, Brazil bean planting is .8% complete vs. 1.7% complete a year ago

 

Hearing Cordonnier left his Brazilian ‘13/14 bean crop estimate unchanged at 88.0 MMT

 

Hearing Cordonnier left his Brazilian ‘13/14 corn crop estimate unchanged at 72.0 MMT

 

Hearing Cordonnier left his Argentine ‘13/14 bean crop estimate unchanged at 55.0 MMT

 

Hearing Cordonnier left his Argentine ‘13/14 corn crop estimate unchanged at 25.0 MMT

 

Argentine corn planting is about 5% complete

 

Hearing Cordonnier left his US 2013 bean yield estimate unchanged at 40.5 BPA, but said he may raise his estimate

 

Hearing Cordonnier left his US 2013 corn yield estimate unchanged at 152.0 BPA, but said he may raise his estimate

 

Kazakhstan Ag Min said as of Oct 1st 17.163 MMT of grains have been harvested on 13.327 MH (84.6% of total area) with an average yield of 1.29 TPH. A year ago Kazakhstan harvested 13.584 MMT of grain, 97.5% of total area with an average yield of .91 TPH

 

Russia’s Ag Min said as of Sept 30th Russia harvested 77.5 MMT of grain on 35.3 MH (76.6% of total area) with an average yield of 2.19 TPH. A year ago Russia harvested 66.9 MMT of grain on 36.2 MH with an average yield of 1.85 TPH

 

SovEcon estimated Russia’s September grain exports at 2.6-2.8 MMT vs. 3.53 MMT in August

 

USDA attaché in Russia estimated 2013 grain exports at 22.0 MMT

 

USDA attaché in Russia estimated 2013 grain crop at 90.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 91.0 MMT

 

Thai Rice Exporters Association said Thailand exported 545,789 tons of rice in August up 7.4% from a year ago

 

Some rains in the forecast for Midwest later this week , could delay harvest . Forecast is drier next week

 

Ukraine and Russia winter grain planting is delayed due to rains

 

There were 82 bean oil deliveries with the date at 9/03/13

 

Today is the last day of the Rogers roll.

 

Nov bean 200 day moving average is 1274 ½

 

Nov bean 100 day moving average is 1281 ½

 

Dec wheat 100 day moving average is 679 ¾

 

Dec meal 50 day moving average is 400.60

 

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday.

 

Corn

  • Condition 55% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago and vs. 25% a year ago
  • Dented 96% vs. 91% a week ago and vs. 97% 5 year average
  • Mature 63% vs. 40% a week ago and vs. 70% 5 year average
  • Harvested 12% vs. 7% a week ago and vs. 23% 5 year average (expecting about 15% complete)

 

Beans

  • Condition 53% good to excellent up 3% from a week ago and vs. 35% a year ago
  • Dropping leaves 67% vs. 47% a week ago and vs. 74% 5 year average
  • Harvested 11% vs. 3% a week ago and vs. 20% 5 year average (as expected)

 

Spring wheat

  • Harvested 95% vs. 93% a week ago and vs. 96% 5 year average

 

Winter wheat

  • Planted 39% vs. 23% a week ago and vs. 40% 5 year average
  • Emerged 12% vs. 12% a year ago and vs. 15% 5 year average

 

Rice

  • Condition 71% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago
  • Harvested 58% vs. 45% a week ago and vs. 62% 5 year average

 

 

Cotton

  • Condition 42% good to excellent down 2% from a week ago and unchanged from a year ago
  • Bolls opening 59% vs. 47% a week ago and vs. 71% 5 year average
  • Harvested 7% vs. 5% a week ago and vs. 14% 5 year average

 

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CZ 728,237 open, up 4,892
  • Total corn 1,171,028 open, up 13,544
  • SX 327,706 open, down 8,305
  • Total beans 622,627 open, down 3,160
  • SMV 7,251 open, down 2,089
  • SMZ 156,164 open, down 3,381
  • Total meal 259,209 open, down 4,325
  • BOV 5,803 open, down 2,188
  • BOZ 181,325 open, up 3,348
  • Total bean oil 305,864 open, up 4,465
  • WZ 239,758 open, down 1,647
  • Total wheat 359,680 open, down 205
  • KC WZ 96,729 open, up 3,419
  • Total KC wheat 152,958 open, up 4,555

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CDT
  • ECB announcement on Wednesday
  • ECB president press conference on Wednesday
  • Weekly DOE #s come out tomorrow at 930 am CDT expecting
    • Crude a build of 2.5 MB
    • Gas a draw of 600,000
    • Distillates a draw of 1.25 MB
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT
  • Deutsche Bank roll begins on Wednesday. They will be rolling long Nov 2013 bean positions to Nov 2014. Traders expect they will roll 3,000- 4,000 contracts a day usually on the close. DB roll ends Oct 8th
  • Informa should be coming out later this week with their 2013 US crop estimate updates
  • US unemployment comes out on Friday at 730 am CDT
  • Stats Canada comes out on Friday at 730 am CDT with 2013 Canadian crop estimates. Expecting
    • All wheat average estimate 32.9 MMT vs. Stats Can previous estimate of 30.56 MMT and vs. 2012 crop of 27.21 MMT
    • Durum average estimate 5.7 MMT vs. Stats Can previous estimate of 5.12 MMT and vs. 2012 crop of 4.63 MMT
    • Canola average estimate 16.6 MMT vs. Stats Can previous estimate of 14.73 MMT and vs. 2012 crop of 13.87 MMT
    • Oats average estimate 3.2 MMT vs. Stats Can previous estimate of 2.91 MMT and vs. 2012 crop of 2.81 MMT
    • Soybeans average estimate 4.9 MMT vs. Stats Can previous estimate of 4.798 MMT and vs. 2012 crop of 4.93 MMT
    • Corn average estimate 13.2 MMT vs. Stats Can previous estimate of 13.08 MMT and vs. 2012 crop of 13.06 MMT
    • Barley average estimate 9.5 MMT vs. Stats Can previous estimate of 8.81 MMT and vs. 2012 crop of 8.01 MMT
    • Flaxseed average estimate 668,000 tons vs. Stats Can previous estimate of 615,000 tons and vs. 2012 crop of 489,000 tons
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins Oct 7th and lasts for 5 days they will be rolling long Nov positions into Jan
  • CONAB comes out on Oct 8th with their first estimates for Brazil’s ‘13/14 crops.
  • USDA crop report comes out Oct 11th
  • Last trading day for Oct futures is Oct 14th. Futures expire at noon CDT
  • NOPA September crush report comes out on Oct 15th at 11 am CDT
  • Elections in Argentina in October

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg