News From The Grain Floor

Good morning.

 

The more that Congress experiences the laws it passes, the better

Senator Chuck Grassley

 

USDA quarterly grain stocks and wheat production report . Report comes out today at 11 am CDT . See below for estimates

 

Today is first notice day for October meal and bean oil

  • 0 meal deliveries as expected
  • 196 bean oil deliveries with the date at 9/03 , expecting 500-1,500

 

Today is month end and end of the quarter

 

Overnight closes

  • SX down 6 ¼ at 1313 ½
  • CZ up 2 ¼ at 456 ¼
  • WZ down a ¼ at 682 3/4
  • KC WZ up 1 at 732 ¾
  • SMZ down .50 at 417.80
  • BOZ down 23 at 4158
  • RRX down 3.50 at 1536.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 14,243
  • CZ 8,347
  • WZ 3,976
  • KC WZ 1,378
  • SMZ 5,500
  • BOZ 8,872
  • RRX 16

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 5-7 lower
  • Corn 2-3 higher
  • Wheat steady lower
  • KC wheat  steady better
  • Meal steady – 1.00 lower
  • Bean oil 15-25 lower
  • Rice 3-5 lower

 

Crude , gold, silver, stock market, and dollar lower this morning.

 

Nikkei down 2.061%

Hang Seng down 1.496%

Shanghai Index up .673%

Most world stock markets are lower

 

Concerns about a US government shutdown.

 

Japan Sept mfg PMI at 52.5 vs. August PMI of 52.2

 

China Sept HSBC Sept mfg PMI at 50.2 vs. HSBC flash of 51.2 and vs. HSBC Aug PMI of 50.1

 

Palm oil up 10.

 

Chinese grain market closings – beans up 32, corn down 8, meal up 13, palm oil up 6, bean oil down 42.

 

Surveyors SGS estimated September Malaysian palm oil exports at 1,504,803 tons up 1% from August

 

Surveyor Intertek Agri Services estimated September’s Malaysian palm oil exports at 1,530,292 tons up 2.1% from August
TALK EU bought 200K tons of US soymeal last week

 

TALK continues China eyeing US spring wheat

 

South Korea millers bought 78,600 tons of US wheat for Jan-Feb shipment

 

South Korea millers bought 80K Australian wheat for Jan shipment

 

South Korea KFA canceled tender to buy 55K optional origin soymeal for Jan shipment

 

South Korea bought 20K non-GM soybean for Nov-Dec shipment

 

Australia to start harvesting wheat in October

 

Talk Brazilian farmers have been pricing US HRW wheat almost daily and been booking several cargoes each week for shipment before year end.

 

Tunisia seeks 75K milling wheat and 50K barley optional origin for Oct-Nov shipment

 

Mauritius seeks 53,100 tons of optional origin wheat flour for Jan-Dec 2014 shipment

 

Soybean Processors Association of India estimated 2013 bean crop at 12.98 MMT up 2.4% from a year ago

 

Soybean Processors Association of India estimated India’s 2013 bean area at 12.22 MH up 14.3% from a year ago

 

India’s government estimated India’s 2013 bean crop at 15.68 MMT

 

Other analysts estimated India’s bean crop at 11-14 MMT

 

Prestige Foods Ltd said India has sold 800,000 tons of new crop soymeal for Oct-Dec shipment and may export 200,000 tons more in the next few weeks
Prestige Foods Ltd estimated India’s ‘13/14 soybean crop at 11.5 MMT

 

Prestige Foods Ltd said India’s 2013 soybean area is up 1.5 MH from 2012

 

Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine has exported 5.7 MMT of grain including 3.5 MMT of wheat, 1.6 MMT of barley, and 640,000 tons of corn between July 1st – Sept 27th up 10.3% from a year ago

 

Today is the second day for the Rogers roll. Roll ends tomorrow. Rogers is rolling long Nov bean positions into Jan.

 

No cold weather threats in the Midwest

 

Good US harvest weather the next 5-10 days

 

Reports of better than expected US bean yields

 

Some light rains in Brazil this week

 

Argentina southern wheat areas received rains , rains are needed in corn and bean areas

 

Wet cold weather in Ukraine and Russia delaying summer crop harvest and delaying winter wheat planting

 

10 wheat canceled Friday afternoon out of ADM Toledo OH

 

Dec wheat 100 day moving average is 680 ½

 

KC Dec wheat 100 day moving average is 726 ¾

 

Weekly COT supplemental report from Friday. Large spec positions as of 9/24/13 futures and options combined

  • Wheat short 73,219
  • KC wheat long 938
  • Corn short 195,491
  • Beans long 94,718
  • Meal long 32,402
  • Bean oil short 46,780

 

Open interest as of Friday’s close

  • CZ 723,427 open, down 3,251
  • Total corn 1,157,553 open, up 1,163
  • SX 336,221 open, down 4,722
  • Total beans 626,159 open, down 2,726
  • SMV 9,340 open, down 4,510
  • SMZ 159,640 open, up 1,381
  • Total meal 263,640 open, down 2,766
  • BOV 7,990 open, down 2,783
  • BOZ 178,017 open, up 4,747
  • Total bean oil 301,438 open, up 3,274
  • WZ 241,924 open, down 883
  • Total wheat 360,492 open, up 2,013
  • KC WZ 93,553 open, down 1,074
  • Total KC wheat 148,753 open, up 1,317

 

Estimates for today’s USDA report

 

Estimates for US quarterly grain stocks

  • Wheat – (18 analysts surveyed) average estimate 1.913 BB, range of estimates are 1.819 – 1.999 BB. USDA Sept 1, 2012 wheat stocks were 2.105 BB and June 1, 2013 wheat stocks were .718 BB
  • Corn – (19 analysts surveyed) average estimate .681 BB, range of estimates are .552-.750. USDA Sept 1st, 2012 corn stocks were .989 BB and June 1st, 2013 corn stocks were 2.764 BB.
  • Beans – (19 analysts surveyed) average estimate .124 BB, range of estimates are .106-.155 BB. USDA Sept 1, 2012 bean stocks were .169 BB and June 1, 2013 bean stocks were .435 BB

 

Estimates for 2013 US wheat crop

  • All wheat crop – (16 analysts surveyed) average estimate 2.108 BB, range of estimates are 2.016-2.137 BB. USDA August estimate was 2.114 BB and 2012 US all wheat crop was 2.269 BB
  • All winter wheat crop – (16 analysts surveyed) average estimate 1.541 BB, range of estimates are 1.510-1.550 BB. USDA August estimate was 1.542 BB and 2012 US all winter wheat crop was 1.645 BB.
  • Hard red winter wheat crop – (16 analysts surveyed) average estimate .788 BB, range of estimates are .770-.800 BB. USDA August estimate was .791 BB and 2012 US HRW wheat crop was 1.004 BB.
  • Soft red winter wheat crop – (16 analysts surveyed) average estimate .544 BB, range of estimates are .535-.561 BB. USDA August estimate was .542 BB and 2012 soft red winter wheat crop was .420 BB
  • White winter wheat crop – (16 analysts surveyed) average estimate .208 BB, range of estimate are .205-.210 BB. USDA August estimate was .209 BB and 2012 white winter wheat crop was .222 BB
  • Other spring wheat – (15 analysts surveyed) average estimate .512 BB, range of estimates are .487-.530 BB. USDA August estimate was .511 BB and 2012 other spring wheat crop was .542 BB.
  • Durum wheat – ( 15 analysts surveyed) average estimate .060 BB, range of estimates are .050-.063 BB. USDA August estimate was .060 BB and 2012 durum wheat crop was .082 BB

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly US export inspections come out today at 10 am CDT
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes today at 3 pm CDT . Expecting corn harvest at 12-17% and expecting bean harvest at 8-14% complete
  • China is on holiday starting tomorrow through Oct 7th. Trading will resume Tuesday Oct 8th.
  • China’s official mfg PMI comes out tomorrow
  • US mfg PMI comes out tomorrow
  • German mfg PMI comes out tomorrow
  • Eurozone mfg PMI comes out tomorrow
  • France mfg PMI comes out tomorrow
  • Spain mfg PMI comes out tomorrow
  • Italy mfg PMI comes out tomorrow
  • UK mfg PMI comes out tomorrow
  • Eurozone unemployment report comes out tomorrow
  • German unemployment report comes out tomorrow
  • FC Stone comes out tomorrow after the close with their US 2013 crop estimate updates
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CDT
  • ECB announcement on Wednesday
  • ECB president press conference on Wednesday
  • Deutsche Bank roll begins on Wednesday. They will be rolling long Nov 2013 bean positions to Nov 2014. Traders expect they will roll 3,000- 4,000 contracts a day usually on the close. DB roll ends Oct 8th
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins Oct 7th and lasts for 5 days they will be rolling long Nov positions into Jan
  • USDA crop report comes out Oct 11th
  • Elections in Argentina in October

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg