News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

“Beer is like Pouring Smiles On Your Brain”

Anon

 

I apologize for the abbreviated report this morning. I had a busy morning.

 

Thank you – Kate Rosenberg

 

Overnight closes

  • SX down 5 ½ at 1316 ¼
  • CZ down 2 ¼ at 452 ½
  • WZ up 2 at 672 ½
  • KC WZ up 3 ¼ at 721 ½
  • SMZ down 1.00 at 416.10
  • BOZ down 30 at 4179
  • RRX up .50 at 1548.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 12K
  • CZ 11K
  • WZ 6,597
  • KC WZ 1,500
  • SMZ 5,327
  • BOZ 6,597
  • RRX 8

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 4-6 lower
  • Corn 1-3 lower
  • Wheat 1-3 higher
  • KC wheat 2-4 higher
  • Meal .50-1.50 lower
  • Bean oil 25-35 lower
  • Rice steady better

 

Palm oil down 26.

 

China sold 250,002 tons of beans at today’s auction. 49.9% of total offered

 

Egypt Meditrade bought 10,500 tons of sunflower oil and bought 30K tons of bean oil for Oct Nov shipment

 

China seeking Australian and Canadian wheat

 

Brazil may have to buy more US HRW wheat due to Argentine crop issues

 

104 bean oil receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of Cargill Ackley IA

 

Chinese industry analysts – Chinese crush breakdown

  • For the week Sept 14-20 total crush volume at 1,421,500 tons down 2.72% from a week ago
  • For the week Sept 14-20 total crush capacity utilization at 52.92% down 1.63% from a week ago
  • Total crush volume between Oct 1st , 2012 – Sept 20, 2013 at 60,651,640 tons nationwide up 3.65% from a year ago
  • Total crush volume between Jan 1st, 2013 – Sept 20, 2013 at 45,089,060 tons nationwide up 6.33% from a year ago
  • As of Sept 20th total imported soybean stocks at 5.96 MMT down 106,100 tons from a week ago and down 7.91% from a year ago
  • Estimated September soybean imports at 4.914 MMT
  • Estimated October soybean imports at 4.8 MMT
  • Estimated Nov soybean imports at 6.0 MMT

 

Weekly US export sales report

  • Wheat 620,200 tons (expecting 500-700K)
  • Corn 640,100 tons (expecting 400-600K)
  • Beans ‘13/14 2.82 MMT ‘14/15 9,500 tons (expecting 2.3-2.8 MMT)
  • Meal ‘12/13 – 60,400 ‘13/14 307,100 (expecting 95-230K)
  • Bean oil ‘12/13 2,800 ‘13/14 – 3,100 (expecting 10-20K)
  • Cotton ‘13/14 66,500 ‘14/15 9,900

 

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 620,200 MT for delivery in the 2013/2014 marketing year were down 12 percent from the previous week, but up 1 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for China (171,400 MT, including 115,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 6,600 MT), Mexico (106,100 MT), Indonesia (77,500 MT, including 10,400 MT switched from Vietnam and 10,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Brazil (74,800 MT, including 25,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 3,500 MT), Japan (71,900 MT), and South Korea (54,500 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (85,500 MT). Exports of 1,028,500 MT were down 15 percent from the previous week, but up 6 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (238,500 MT), Brazil (114,300 MT), Nigeria (98,200 MT), Mexico (97,000 MT), Indonesia (87,500 MT), and the Philippines (76,600 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 640,100 MT for 2013/2014 were reported for Mexico (390,600 MT), China (130,500 MT, including 55,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Guatemala (31,200 MT, including 17,700 MT switched from unknown destinations), Japan (17,600 MT, including 12,800 MT switched from unknown destination and decreases of 7,100 MT), and Honduras (13,300 MT). Exports of 479,100 MT were primarily to Mexico (189,600 MT), China (118,600 MT), Japan (63,600 MT), Venezuela (36,500 MT), and Guatemala (17,700 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales of 2,816,800 MT for 2013/2014 were reported for China (2,293,100 MT, including 60,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 15,300 MT) unknown destinations (214,500 MT), Indonesia (104,200 MT, including 72,500 MT switched from unknown destination and decreases of 5,000 MT), and Egypt (60,000 MT). Exports of 442,500 MT were primarily to China (295,100 MT), Indonesia (83,500 MT), Japan (29,200 MT), and Mexico (24,900 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales reductions of 60,400 MT for 2012/2013 resulted as increases for Guatemala (7,700 MT, switched from unknown destinations), Canada (6,000 MT), El Salvador (5,500 MT, switched from unknown destinations), Venezuela (5,000 MT, including 4,000 MT switched from Colombia), and Mexico (2,500 MT), were more than offset by decreases for unknown destinations (70,700 MT), Nicaragua (8,000 MT), Jamaica (5,000 MT), and Colombia (4,000 MT). Net sales of 307,100 MT for 2013/2014 were primarily to unknown destinations (153,700 MT), Colombia (48,400 MT), Venezuela (26,000 MT), and Egypt (25,000 MT). Decreases were reported for the French West Indies (400 MT). Exports of 94,400 MT were up 4 percent from the previous week, but down 9 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were the Dominican Republic (26,100 MT), Canada (19,800 MT), Venezuela (16,500 MT), Mexico (12,700 MT), and Guatemala (7,700 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 2,800 MT for 2012/2013 resulted as increases for Venezuela (3,000 MT) and Mexico (100 MT), were partially offset by decreases for Canada (500 MT). Net sales reductions of 3,100 MT for 2013/2014 were reported for Venezuela (3,000 MT) and Mexico (100 MT). Exports of 10,000 MT were down 36 percent from the previous week and 23 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Venezuela (6,000 MT), Canada (1,000 MT), Guatemala (1,000 MT), and Haiti (1,000 MT).
  • Cotton – Net Upland sales of 66,500 RB for 2013/2014 were down 36 percent from the previous week and 43 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Vietnam (22,900 RB), Turkey (18,900 RB), South Korea (9,300 RB), Thailand (6,100 RB, including 300 RB switched from Japan), and Japan (2,800 RB). Decreases were reported for China (1,800 MT). Net sales of 9,900 RB for 2014/2015 were for Indonesia (5,500 RB) and Turkey (4,400 RB). Exports of 97,000 RB were down 14 percent from the previous week and 28 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Vietnam (21,500 RB), Turkey (13,900 RB), Mexico (13,700 RB), China (12,100 RB), and Indonesia (6,800 RB). Net American Pima sales of 20,900 RB for 2013/2014 were up noticeably from the previous week and 89 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for India (9,700 RB), China (6,400 RB), Egypt (2,200 RB), and Germany (1,300 RB). Exports of 10,500 RB were primarily to China (3,800 RB), Indonesia (2,000 RB), and India (2,000 RB).

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,152,811 open, up 5,513
  • Total beans 624,287 open, up 3,908
  • SMV 19,469 open, down 3,109
  • Total meal 272,499 open, up 1,385
  • BOV 14,561 open, down 4,941
  • Total bean oil 296,482 open, down 711
  • Total wheat 362,106 open, up 2,166
  • Total KC wheat 148,050 open, up 487

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CDT
  • Rogers roll begins on Friday and lasts 3 days they will be rolling long Nov bean positions into Jan.
  • Friday is position day for Oct meal and bean oil. First notice day is Monday Sept 30th
    • There are 0 meal receipts registered – early expectations for deliveries are 0
    • There are 8,276 bean oil receipts registered – early expectations for deliveries are 500-1,500
  • EIA July Biodiesel report comes out tomorrow
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CDT
  • USDA quarterly stocks report is on Sept 30th at 11 am CDT
  • China is on holiday Oct 1st – Oct 7th.
  • Elections in Argentina in October
  • FC Stone comes out on Oct 1st after the close with their US 2013 crop estimate updates
  • Deutsche Bank roll begins Oct 2nd. They will be rolling long Nov 2013 bean positions to Nov 2014. Traders expect they will roll 3,000- 4,000 contracts a day usually on the close. DB roll ends Oct 8th
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins Oct 7th and lasts for 5 days they will be rolling long Nov positions into Jan
  • USDA crop report comes out Oct 11th

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg