News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

It’s like we’re handing out bus tickets and the bus is already full

Perry Pugno, vice president for medical education at the American Academy of Family Physicians

 

USDA announced 140K US beans sold to unknown for ‘13/14 delivery.

 

Overnight closes

  • SX up 5 ¼ at 1317 ¾
  • CZ up 2 ¼ at 451
  • WZ up 4 ½ at 662 ¾
  • KC WZ up 6 at 711
  • SMZ up 3.10 at 415.40
  • BOZ up 1 at 4210
  • RRX down 4.50 at 1544

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 13,360
  • CZ 8,501
  • WZ 8,057
  • KC WZ 1,185
  • SMZ 5,706
  • BOZ 5,621
  • RRX 6

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 4-6 higher
  • Corn 1-3 higher
  • Wheat 4-6 higher
  • KC wheat 5-7 higher
  • Meal 3-4 higher
  • Bean oil steady better
  • Rice 3-5 lower

 

Crude, gold, silver, and stock market higher. Dollar lower.

 

Nikkei down .761%

Hang Seng up .132%

Shanghai Index down .408%

 

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday

  • Crude a draw of 54,000 expecting a draw of 1.1 MB
  • Gas a build of 341,000 expecting a build of 100,000
  • Distillates a build of 485,000 expecting a draw of 600,000

 

China grain market closes – beans up 7, corn down 7, meal up 4, palm oil unchanged, bean oil down 8

 

Palm oil down 6.

 

Intertek Agri Services estimated Malaysia’s Sept 1-25th palm oil exports at 1.24 MMT up 6.5% from a month ago

 

SGS estimated Malaysia’s Sept 1-25th palm oil exports at 1.21 MMT up 6.4% from a month ago

 

Hearing China bought 3 cargoes of US and South American soybeans on Monday

 

Hearing China was eyeing US and South American bean cargoes yesterday

 

Good Chinese wheat demand – Chinese wheat prices hit record high

 

JC Intelligence Co. said China may increase wheat imports for reserves. Estimated ‘13/14 wheat imports at 7.5 MMT vs. USDA estimate of 9.5 MMT

JC Intelligence Co. said China may sell wheat from reserves

 

TALK Sinograin bought 4 cargoes of new crop Argentine beans this week

 

TALK Brazil was seeking US HRW wheat for Nov-Dec shipment yesterday

 

TALK Brazil has bought 1-2 cargoes of Canada wheat and 2 cargoes of wheat from Poland

 

TALK private Chinese importers are seeking new crop US corn for Jan shipment

 

TALK continues China eyeing new crop Australian wheat

 

Taiwan BSPA bought 60K tons of Brazilian beans for March shipment

 

Taiwan Sugar Corp bought 23,000 tons of US corn and 12,000 tons of US beans for Nov shipment

 

Bangladesh canceled tender for 50K optional origin wheat for Oct-Nov shipment due to high prices

 

Oil World estimates

  • EU  ‘13/14 sunflower oil output estimated at 2.9 MMT (record) up 16% from ‘12/13
  • EU ‘13/14 olive oil output expected to be up 40% from a year ago
  • EU ‘13/14 total veg oil output estimated at 22.69 MMT up 3.6% from ‘12/13
  • EU ‘13/14 domestic veg oil consumption  at 29.8 MMT up .2% from a year ago
  • EU ‘13/14 palm oil imports estimated at 6.3 MMT
  • EU ‘13/14 veg oil imports estimated at 9.98 MMT vs. last record imports of 10.1 MMT
  • ‘13/14 global sunflower oil output estimated at 15.0 MMT up 12% from ‘12/13
  • ‘13/14 Russia sunflower oil output estimated at 3.59 MMT up 11% from a year ago
  • ‘13/14 Russia sunflower oil exports estimated at 1.4 MMT up 29% from ‘12/13
  • ‘13/14 global oilseed crushing estimated at 401.8 MMT(record) vs. 387.07 MMT in ‘12/13
  • ‘13/14 global seed oil production expected to be up 3.7 MMT from ‘12/13 production
  • ‘13/14 global meal output expected to be up 10.1 MMT from ‘12/13 production
  • ‘13/14 China crushing estimated at 90.72 MMT up 1.6% from ‘12/13
  • ‘13/14 Brazil crushing estimated at 41.08 MMT up 10% from ‘12/13
  • ‘13/14 Argentine crushing estimated at 40.2 MMT up 9.8% from ‘12/13
  • Oil World expects 2013 palm oil for biodiesel use to reach 6.34 MMT up 11% from 2012

 

The Nation (Argentine newspaper) said Argentine farmers are still holding about 17.5 MMT of ‘12/13 beans (‘12/13 bean crop was 49.3 MMT) , based on a FyO.com survey . Headline read “ Producers retain 35% of soybeans, waiting for an accelerated devaluation”

 

Better than expected yields being seen in  US corn

 

TALK of quality problems in Russian wheat.

 

Dryness concerns in South America

 

Manitoba canola harvest about 65% complete , some rains are slowing down harvest

 

Record spring wheat yields being seen in Manitoba, Canada (4 – 5 BPA above record).

 

Record canola yields being seen in Saskatchewan Canada

 

Analysts expect Canada’s 2013 canola crop to be above 17.0 MMT

 

Rains in southern Russia and Ukraine delaying winter wheat planting and summer crop harvesting.

 

Worries about Argentine wheat crop

 

Brazil needs wheat for Dec.

 

Nonthreatening US weather forecast

 

Dec corn contract low is 446.

 

Dec wheat 50 day moving average is 655

 

Dec KC wheat 50 day moving average is 703 ¾

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CZ 726,132 open, up 4,159
  • Total corn 1,147,692 open, up 5,056
  • SX 340,552 open, down 1,447
  • Total beans 621,055 open, up 181
  • SMV 22,618 open, down 1,311
  • SMZ 158,429 open, up 3,353
  • Total meal 271,236 open, up 3,611
  • BOV 19,512 open, down 1,884
  • BOZ 169,539 open, up 1,972
  • Total bean oil 297,192 open, up 3,294
  • WZ 247,655 open, down 25
  • Total wheat 359,967 open, up 1,191
  • KC WZ 96,308 open, down 334
  • Total KC wheat 147,700 open, up 79

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly DOE numbers come out today at 930 am CDT expecting
    • Crude a draw of 1.0 MB
    • Gas a draw of 750K
    • Distillates a draw of 925K
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out today at 930 am CDT
  • China will auction 500K beans from reserves tomorrow
  • UK and US GDP comes out tomorrow
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT
  • Rogers roll begins on Friday and lasts 3 days they will be rolling long Nov bean positions into Jan.
  • Friday is position day for Oct meal and bean oil. First notice day is Monday Sept 30th
    • There are 0 meal receipts registered – early expectations for deliveries are 0
    • There are 8,380 bean oil receipts registered – early expectations for deliveries are 500-1,500
  • USDA quarterly stocks report is on Sept 30th at 11 am CDT
  • China is on holiday Oct 1st – Oct 7th.
  • Elections in Argentina in October
  • FC Stone comes out on Oct 1st after the close with their US 2013 crop estimate updates
  • Deutsche Bank roll begins Oct 2nd. They will be rolling long Nov 2013 bean positions to Nov 2014. Traders expect they will roll 3,000- 4,000 contracts a day usually on the close. DB roll ends Oct 8th
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins Oct 7th and lasts for 5 days they will be rolling long Nov positions into Jan
  • USDA crop report comes out Oct 11th

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg