News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

…how do you intimidate me?  I’ve lined up against Lawrence Taylor!

Brian Holloway

 

USDA announced 180K tons of US corn sold to Colombia for ‘13/14 delivery

 

Overnight closes

  • SX up 10 ¾ at 1318 ½
  • CZ down a ½ at 452 ¾
  • WZ down 2 at 651 ½
  • KC WZ down 2 ½ at 695 ¼
  • SMZ up 4.60 at 413.80
  • BOZ down 3 at 4221
  • RRX down 8.50 at 1545

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 18,208
  • CZ 10,216
  • WZ 4,793
  • KC WZ 715
  • SMZ 5,284
  • BOZ 6,849
  • RRX 21

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 9-11 higher
  • Corn steady mixed
  • Wheat 1-3 lower
  • KC wheat 1-3 lower
  • Meal 3.50-4.50 higher
  • Bean oil steady to 10 lower
  • Rice  7-10 lower

 

Crude, gold, and silver lower. Dollar and stock market higher.

 

Nikkei down .067%

Hang Seng down .824%

Shanghai Index down .611%

 

Palm oil down 9.

 

Chinese grain markets – beans up 21, corn down 1, meal up 41, pal oil up 64, bean oil up 56, rapeseed unchanged, rapeseed oil up 46, rapeseed meal up 18

 

Hearing China- Sinograin bought 2 Argentine bean cargoes for May shipment yesterday

 

Hearing Chinese crusher bought 2 US bean cargoes yesterday for Jan shipment

 

TALK from yesterday China eyeing new crop Brazilian bean cargoes

 

Taiwan bought 92,350 tons of US wheat for Nov-Dec shipment (dark northern spring, HRW, and western white wheat)

 

Tunisia bought 59K optional origin durum wheat for Oct –Nov shipment

 

Egypt FIHC bought 20K sunflower oil for Oct-Nov shipment

 

CNGOIC estimated China’s ‘13/14 wheat imports at 7.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 6.5 MMT

 

CNGOIC said China has already bought 3.7 MMT of wheat from the US, bought 2.2 MMT from Australia, and bought 220,000 tons from France.

 

CNGOIC estimated China’s ‘13/14 rapeseed imports at a record high 3.59 MMT up 54% from a year ago .

 

China to allow crushers to import 200,000 tons of Russian rapeseed in ‘13/14

 

TALK of good demand for US wheat from Brazil for December shipment , due to poor crops in Argentina

 

Bean planting has started in Parana and Mato Grosso 1% complete vs. five year average of 1%

 

Russia to start intervention grain auctions in the first 10 days of October

 

Russia’s state statistics office said Russia exported 7.872 MMT of grain between 7/01/13-9/18/13 up 14.2% from a year ago

 

Russia’s Ag Min said as of 9/23/13 Russia harvested 74.0 MMT of grain on 33.4 MH (72.3% of total area) with an average yield of 2.22 TPH. A year ago Russia harvested 63.9 MMT of grain on 34.9 MH with an average yield of 1.83 TPH

 

Kazakhstan Ag  Min said as of Sept 24th Kazakhstan has harvested 14.562 MMT of grain on 11.596 MH (73.6% of total area) with an average yield of 1.26 TPH. A year ago Kazakhstan harvested 13.0 MMT of grain, 95.2% of total area with an average yield of .89 TPH

 

Kazakhstan Ag Min said Kazakhstan exported 1.39 MMT of grain between July 1st – Sept 20th vs. 1.87 MMT a year ago

 

Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine exported 5.3 MMT of grain between July 1st – Sept 20th up 14% from a year ago

 

Ukraine Ag Min estimated Ukraine’s September grain exports at 2.5-2.6 MMT vs. 2.46 MMT in August

 

Ukraine Ag Min estimated Ukraine’s ‘13/14 grain exports at 26-30 MMT vs. 23.0 MMT in ‘12/13

 

Ukraine Ag Min said as of Sept 23rd Ukraine has harvested 35.125 MMT of grain on 11.17 MH (71% of total area) with an average yield of 3.14 TPH. A year ago Ukraine harvested 30.688 MMT of grain on 11.39 MH with an average yield of 2.69 TPH

 

India’s Ag Min estimated ‘13/14 total summer crop at 129.3 MMT up .9% from ‘12/13

 

India’s Ag Min said India’s ‘13/14 edible oil crops will be up 15% from ‘12/13

 

India’s Ag Min estimated India’s ‘13/14 rice crop at 92.3 MMT vs. 92.8 MMT a year ago

 

India’s Food Min said total ‘13/14 food grain output may hit record high

 

India’s Food Min estimated winter food grain output at 128.25 MMT

 

Pakistan Edible Oil Refiners Association said Pakistan has not imported any palm oil this year due to high import taxes of 28-30%

 

Pakistan Edible Oil Refiners Association said Pakistan imported 1.9 MMT of edible oils in 2012 and estimated 2013 edible oil imports at 2.1 MMT

 

Pakistan Edible Oil Refiners Association estimated Pakistan bean imports at 1.0 MMT unchanged from 2012

 

UK government said ‘12/13 wheat ending stocks at 2.19 MMT up 46% from ‘11/12 and vs. previous estimate of 1.94 MMT

 

UK government said UK imported 2.94 MMT of wheat in ‘12/13 vs. 908,000 tons in ‘11/12

 

UK government said ‘12/13 domestic wheat consumption was 14.78 MMT up 8% from a year ago

 

Concerns over Russia’s wheat quality

 

253 rice deliveries with the date at 9/06/13

 

253 new rice receipts registered yesterday afternoon

 

Dec wheat 50 day moving average is 655 ½

 

Dec KC wheat 50 day moving average is 704

 

Dec corn contract low is 446.

 

Weekly US export inspections report from yesterday

  • Wheat 42.319 MB expecting 35-45 MB
  • Corn 17.916 MB expecting 15-22 MB
  • Beans 16.793 MB expecting 2-4 MB

 

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday

 

Corn

  • Condition 55% good to excellent up 2% from a week ago (expecting steady to up 1%) and vs. 24% a year ago
    • IL up 2% from a week ago
    • IA up 2% from a week ago
    • MN down 1% from a week ago
    • NE unchanged from a week ago
    • IN unchanged from a week ago
    • OH up 1% from a week ago
    • KS unchanged from a week ago
    • MO unchanged from a week ago
    • MI unchanged from a week ago
    • SD unchanged from a week ago
    • ND up 3% from a week ago
    • WI unchanged from a week ago
  • Dented 91% vs. 81% a week ago and vs. 93% 5 year average
  • Mature 40% vs. 22% a week ago and vs. 55% 5 year average
  • Harvested 7% (expecting about 10%) vs. 4% a week ago and vs. 16% 5 year average
    • IL 5% vs. 51% a year ago and vs. 24% average
    • IN 6% vs. 25% a year ago and vs. 14% average
    • IA 3% vs. 35% a year ago and vs. 9% average
    • KS 16% vs. 62% a year ago and vs. 34% average
    • MN 0% vs. 27% a year ago and vs. 6% average
    • MO 16% vs. 78% a year ago and vs. 36% average
    • NE 4% vs. 34% a year ago and vs. 10% average
    • OH 3% vs. 7% a year ago and vs. 6% average

 

Beans

  • Condition 50% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago (as expected) and vs. 35% a year ago
    • IL unchanged from a week ago
    • IA up 1% from a week ago
    • MN up 2% from a week ago
    • NE down 1% from a week ago
    • IN up 2% from a week ago
    • OH up 3% from a week ago
    • KS down 4% from a week ago
    • MO down 1% from a week ago
    • MI up 1% from a week ago
    • SD down 3% from a week ago
    • ND unchanged from a week ago
    • WI down 1% from a week ago
  • Dropping leaves 47% vs. 26% a week ago and vs. 56% 5 year average
  • Harvested 3% (expecting 3-5% complete) vs. 21% a year ago and vs. 9% 5 year average
    • IL 1% vs. 7% a year ago and vs. 6% average
    • IN 4% vs. 9% a year ago and vs. 9% average
    • IA 1% vs. 21% a year ago and vs. 7% average
    • NE 3% vs. 17% a year ago and vs. 5% average
    • OH 3% vs. 7% a year ago and vs. 7% average

 

Spring wheat

  • Harvested 93% vs.90% a week ago and vs. 93% 5 year average

 

Winter Wheat

  • Planted 23% vs. 12% a week ago and vs. 24% 5 year average

 

Rice

  • Condition 71% good to excellent down 2% from a week ago
  • Harvested 45% vs. 35% a week ago and vs. 53% 5 year average

 

Cotton

  • Condition 44% good to excellent up 1% from a week ago and vs. 43% 5 year average
  • Bolls opening 47% vs. 36% a week ago and vs. 62% 5 year average
  • Harvested 5% vs. 4% a week ago and vs. 10% 5 year average

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CZ 722,374 open, down 1,557
  • Total corn 1,142,971 open, up 2,214
  • SX 342,281 open, down 6,370
  • Total beans 621,380 open, down 5,410
  • SMV 23,715 open, down 2,406
  • SMZ 155,272 open, up 879
  • Total meal 267,889 open, up 349
  • BOV 21,396 open, down 3,575
  • BOZ 167,706 open, down 95
  • Total bean oil 294,072 open, down 287
  • WZ 247,784 open, down 1,233
  • Total wheat 358,863 open, up 635
  • KC WZ 96,784 open, up 254
  • Total KC wheat 147,756 open, up 963

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CDT
  • Weekly DOE numbers come out tomorrow at 930 am CDT expecting
    • Crude a draw of 800K
    • Gas a draw of 250K
    • Distillates a draw of 1.05 MB
  • China will auction 500K beans from reserves on Thursday
  • UK and US GDP comes out on Thursday
  • Rogers roll begins on Friday and lasts 3 days they will be rolling long Nov bean positions into Jan.
  • Friday is position day for Oct meal and bean oil. First notice day is Monday Sept 30th
  • USDA quarterly stocks report is on Sept 30th at 11 am CDT
  • FC Stone comes out on Oct 1st after the close with their US 2013 crop estimate updates
  • Deutsche Bank roll begins Oct 2nd. They will be rolling long Nov 2013 bean positions to Nov 2014. Traders expect they will roll 3,000- 4,000 contracts a day usually on the close. DB roll ends Oct 8th
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins Oct 7th and lasts for 5 days they will be rolling long Nov positions into Jan
  • USDA crop report comes out Oct 11th

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg