News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

When you look back on your life, you’ll regret the things you didn’t do more than the ones you did

H. Jackson Brown, Jr.

 

USDA announced 197,200 tons of US corn sold to Mexico for ‘13/14 delivery

 

Overnight closes

  • SX down 1 at 1314 ¼
  • CZ down 2 ½ at 448 ½
  • WZ up 1 ½ at 647 ¾
  • KC WZ unchanged at 692 ¾
  • SMZ up .50 at 412.10
  • BOZ down 26 at 4208
  • RRX up 4.50 at 1559

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 17,000
  • CZ 15,000
  • WZ 3,482
  • KC WZ 157
  • SMZ 5,399
  • BOZ 11,000

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 2-4 lower
  • Corn 1-3 lower
  • Wheat 1-2 higher
  • KC wheat steady
  • Meal steady better
  • Bean oil 20-30 lower
  • Rice 3-5 higher

 

1,054 Oct corn 450 out of the money puts were exercised on Friday. Friday Dec corn settled at 451

 

Crude , gold, silver, stock market, and dollar lower.

 

Nikkei down .161%

Hang Seng down .557%

Shanghai Index up 1.328%

 

Flash mfgs PMIs

  • China HSBC flash 51.2 (six month high) expecting 50.9 and vs. August PMI of 50.1
  • Eurozone flash 51.1 expecting 51.8 and vs. 51.4 in August
  • Germany 51.3 expecting 52.2 and vs. 51.8 in August
  • France 49.5 expecting 50.1 and vs. 49.7 in August

 

Palm oil up 9

 

China beans up 1, corn up 2, meal down 36, palm oil down 70, bean oil down 66, rapeseed down 3, rapeseed meal up 13 rapeseed oil down 74

 

Veg Oil Conference in Mumbai this weekend

  • Director of India’s biggest soybean processors estimated India’s ‘13/14 soybean crop at 11.0 MMT unchanged from ’12/13
  • India to export 600,000 tons of meal between October – December
  • India has sold 10% of their ‘13/14 soymeal
  • India’s ‘13/14 edible oil imports estimated at 10.8 MMT vs. 10.3 MMT a year ago
  • India’s ‘13/14 soymeal exports estimated at 4.1-5 MMT up 25% from ‘12/13
  • Dorab Mistry expects ‘13/14 global palm oil production to be 3.5 MMT higher this year
  • Mistry estimated ‘13/14 India’s palm oil imports at 8.3 MMT unchanged from ‘12/13
  • Mistry estimated India’s total veg oil imports at 11.0 MMT up 4% from a year ago
  • Dorab Mistry expects palm oil prices to fall to 2,000 ringgits by Jan 2014.
  • Dorab expects palm oil prices to range between 2,200 -2,400 ringgits in the next few weeks currently spot month palm oil is at 2309

 

Analysts expect Argentine wheat crop estimates to fall due to dry weather

 

Analysts expect Canada to have  best wheat crop in 20 years due to ideal weather

 

Brazil bean area received rains over the weeken d

 

Argentina still dry

 

Dry and mild weather forecast for Midwest this week

 

Better than expected yields being seen in US corn and beans

 

Dec corn contract low is $4.46

 

China’s General Administrations of Customs – August import data

  • Wheat 417,823 tons up 66.2% from a year ago
  • Barley 186,747 tons down 17.86% from a year ago
  • Corn 10,638 tons down 98.23% from a year ago
  • Rice 113,958 tons down 52.26% from a year ago
  • Beans 6,367,030 tons up 44.12% from a year ago
    • 5.11 MMT from Brazil up 82.2% from a year ago
    • 831,634 tons from Argentina up 9.5% from a year ago
    • 1,390 tons from the US down 99.65% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed 276,127 tons up 196.46% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed oil 116,468 tons up 29.28% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed meal 5,432 tons down 92.4% from a year ago
  • Bean oil 113,736 tons down 37.18% from a year ago
  • Soymeal 800 tons down 24.39% from a year ago
  • Palm oil 537,162 tons up 17.43% from a year ago

 

 

China’s General Administrations of Customs – Jan – August import data

  • Wheat 2,123,670 tons down 21.07% from a year ago
  • Barley 1,382,522 tons down 25.79% from a year ago
  • Corn 1,605,313 tons down 56.92% from a year ago
  • Rice 1,572,154 tons down 4.21% from a year ago
  • Beans 41,054,613 tons up 4.37% from a year ago
    • 23.897 MMT from Brazil up 20.15% from a year ago
    • 3.01 MMT from Argentina down 3.79% from a year ago
    • 12.52 MMT from the US down 18.62% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed 2,290,573 tons up 23.96% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed oil 1,182,576 tons up 67.25% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed meal 18,489 tons down 95.47% from a year ago
  • Bean oil 697,147 tons down 26.46% from a year ago
  • Soymeal 12,883 tons down 69.69% from a year ago
  • Palm oil 3.874 MMT up 8.72% from a year ago

 

Weekly COT supplemental report from Friday. Large Spec positions as of 9/17/13

  • Wheat short 87,420
  • KC wheat short 1,076
  • Corn short 174,921
  • Beans long 111,861
  • Meal long 36,430
  • Bean oil short 44,348

 

Open interest as of Friday’s close

  • Total corn 1,141,040 open, up 40
  • Total beans 625,521 open, up 4,846
  • Total meal 269,474 open, up 332
  • Total bean oil 294,735 open, up 617
  • Total wheat 358,690 open , up 1,387
  • Total KC wheat 146,948 open, up 350

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly US export inspection report comes out on today at 10 am CDT
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on today at 3 pm CDT expecting bean and corn conditions to be steady to up 1% from a week ago
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CDT
  • China will auction 500K beans from reserves on Thursday
  • UK and US GDP comes out on Thursday
  • Friday is position day for Oct meal and bean oil. First notice day is Monday Sept 30th
  • USDA quarterly stocks report is on Sept 30th at 11 am CDT

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg