News From The Grain Floor

Good morning.

 

The Fed has created a self-licking ice cream cone

Jeoffrey Hall

 

USDA announced 120K new crop US beans sold to unknown.

 

Overnight closes

  • SX up 10 ½ at 1358 ¼
  • CZ up 4 ¼ at 460 ½
  • WZ up 8 ¾ at 655 ¼
  • KC WZ up 8 ¾ at 701 ¼
  • SMZ up 3.70 at 429.50
  • BOZ up 27 at 4298
  • RRX up 7.50 at 1568.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 10,221
  • CZ 16,745
  • WZ 11,338
  • KC WZ 1,662
  • SMZ 3,022
  • BOZ 6,013
  • RRX 68

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 9-11 higher
  • Corn 3-5 higher
  • Wheat 7-9 higher
  • KC wheat 7-10 higher
  • Meal 3-4 higher
  • Bean oil 20-30 higher
  • Rice 7-9 higher

 

Crude, gold, silver, and stock market higher. Dollar lower

 

Feds decided not to slow down its bond buying program.

 

Nikkei up 1.798%

Hang Seng up 1.666%

Most world stock markets are higher today.

 

Weekly US jobless claims came out this morning at +15K to 309K expecting 330K

 

Palm oil down 4

 

Chinese markets are closed the rest of the week for holiday.

 

China did not hold a weekly bean auction this week due to holiday.

 

TALK China is seeking or buying new crop Australian wheat

 

TALK China is canceled up to 120K tons of  Brazilian bean oil

 

Hearing China bought US bean cargoes yesterday for Oct – Dec shipment

 

TALK Brazil bought wheat cargoes from Poland

 

Japan bought 108,901 tons of milling wheat for Oct-Dec shipment . Breakdown

  • 21,011 tons of US western white wheat
  • 20,520 tons of US HRW wheat
  • 21,300 tons of US dark northern spring what
  • 26,510 tons of western red spring Canadian wheat
  • 19,560 tons of Australian white wheat

 

Port logistics in Brazil are still a problem.

 

Indonesia Palm Oil Association said Indonesia exported 1.48 MMT of palm oil in August vs. 1.59 MMT in July .

 

Indonesia Palm Oil Association said Indonesia exported 13.68 MMT of palm oil between January – August vs. 11.54 MMT a year ago

 

Indonesia Palm Oil Association estimated Indonesia 2013 palm oil output at 28.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

Indonesia Palm Oil Association estimated Indonesia 2013 palm oil exports at 18.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate .

 

Ag Canada estimated Canada’s ‘13/14 all wheat crop at 30.7 MMT vs. previous estimate of 29.2 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 crop of 27.2 MMT

 

Ag Canada estimated Canada’s ‘13/14 canola crop at 14.78 MMT vs. previous estimate of 14.6 MMT

 

Ag Canada estimated Canada’s ‘13/14 barley crop at 8.994 MMT vs. previous estimate of 8.55 MMT

 

Ag Canada estimated Canada’s ‘13/14 corn crop at 13.193 MMT vs. previous estimate of 13.15 MMT

 

Ag Canada said Canada is seeing higher average yields due to extremely good growing conditions

 

CBG estimated ‘13/14 Western Australia grain crop at 11.5-12.6 MMT vs. previous estimate of 9-10 MMT vs. ‘12/13 crop of 9.5 MMT vs. ‘11/12 crop of 15.0 MMT and vs. average of 10.6 MMT , late rains helped improve crop.

 

SGS said Brazilian farmers should shift more acreage to soybeans

 

12 KC wheat receipts canceled yesterday afternoon out of Gavilon Grain Wichita, KS

 

South America dry

 

Dec wheat 50 day moving average is 657 ¾

 

Weekly US export sales report

  • Wheat ‘13/14 704,400 ‘14/15 – 2,500 (expecting 500-650K)
  • Corn ‘13/14 437,400 (expecting 450-650K)
  • Beans ‘13/14 923,300 (expecting 650-750K)
  • Meal ‘12/13 26,300 ‘13/14 20,300 (expecting 100-230K)
  • Bean oil ‘12/13 20,600 (expecting 5-15K)
  • Cotton ‘13/14 103,100

 

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 704,400 MT for delivery in the 2013/2014 marketing year were up 30 percent from the previous week and 25 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were reported for Nigeria (159,200 MT), Brazil (120,400 MT, including 40,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (93,800 MT), Sri Lanka (63,500 MT, including 65,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 2,500 MT), Venezuela (61,700 MT), and the Philippines (44,800 MT).  Decreases were reported for China (5,500 MT), Honduras (2,500 MT), and unknown destinations (1,800 MT).  Net sales reductions of 2,500 MT for 2014/2015 were for Malaysia.  Exports of 1,204,400 MT–a marketing-year high–were up 32 percent from the previous week and 35 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were China (406,700 MT), Brazil (186,400 MT), Japan (128,800 MT), Nigeria (96,000 MT), Mexico (68,900 MT), Sri Lanka (63,500 MT), Thailand (54,500 MT), and the Philippines (4 4,100 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 437,400 MT for 2013/2014 resulted as increases for Mexico (136,500 MT, including 33,300 MT switched from unknown destination and decreases of 5,000 MT), Japan (108,500 MT, including 64,300 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 10,500 MT), China (64,500 MT, including 55,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Peru (40,000 MT), and Taiwan (35,900 MT), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (18,000 MT).  Exports of 518,800 MT were primarily to Mexico (196,400 MT), Japan (104,300 MT), Venezuela (67,000 MT), China (60,000 MT), and the Dominican Republic (26,400 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales of 923,300 MT for 2013/2014 resulted as increases for unknown destinations (530,500 MT), China (129,000 MT), South Korea (85,200 MT), Mexico (60,700 MT), and Indonesia (41,000 MT).  Exports of 74,200 MT were primarily to Mexico (26,300 MT), Japan (22,000 MT), Indonesia (6,700 MT), Colombia (4,400 MT), and Taiwan (4,300 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales of 26,300 MT for 2012/2013 resulted as increases for Honduras (12,600 MT, including 14,800 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 2,200 MT), Venezuela (9,500 MT, including 13,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 3,500 MT), Canada (8,300 MT), Nicaragua (8,000 MT), and the Philippines (3,800 MT), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (20,800 MT) and Mexico (600 MT).  Net sales of 20,300 MT for 2013/2014 resulted as increases for unknown destinations (10,000 MT), the Dominican Republic (9,000 MT), Nicaragua (5,600 MT), and Guatemala (3,800 MT), were partially offset by decreases for Honduras (8,100 MT) and Trinidad (2,200 MT).  Exports of 90,500 MT were down 11 percent from the previous week and 10 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were Mexico (25,700 MT), Canada (18,000 MT), Venezuela (13,000 MT), Honduras (12,600 MT), and Panama (8,400 MT). 
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 20,600 MT for 2012/2013 were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.   Increases were reported for Canada (16,400 MT), Venezuela (3,000 MT), and Mexico ( 1,100 MT).   Exports of 15,700 MT were down 48 percent from the previous week, but up 60 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were Norway (8,000 MT), Colombia (3,000 MT), Canada (2,500 MT), and Mexico (1,200 MT).
  • Cotton – :  Net Upland sales of 103,100 RB for 2013/2014 were primarily for Turkey (28,000 RB), China (20,300 RB), Mexico (20,100 RB), Vietnam (13,000 RB), and Thailand (9,800 RB).  Decreases were reported for El Salvador (400 MT).  Exports of 112,900 RB were primarily to Mexico (21,800 RB), Vietnam (20,500 RB), China (18,600 RB), Turkey (8,400 RB), and Indonesia (8,200 RB).  Net American Pima sales of 8,000 RB for 2013/2014 resulted as increases for China (6,800 RB), Germany (1,000 RB), and Thailand (500 RB, switched from Japan), were partially offset by decreases for Japan (500 RB).  Exports of 15,600 RB were primarily to China (3,800 RB), Pakistan (2,500 RB), and Thailand (2,000 RB).

 

Yesterday on the close ADM bought 3,000 Nov corn 420 puts paid 3 cents. Open interest this morning of the CX 420 puts is 4,174 , down 2,320 (indicating this was a closing position). Open interest showed that 4,209 contracts traded yesterday.

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CZ 732,757 open, up 6,361
  • Total corn 1,138,997 open, up 14,578
  • SX 344,423 open, down 1,380
  • Total beans 616,355 open, up 3,272
  • SMZ 155,852 open, up 839
  • Total meal 268,190 open, down 1,048
  • BOZ 163,498 open, up 2,149
  • Total bean oil 293,533 open, up 2,156
  • WZ 247,607 open, down 1,648
  • Total wheat 355,091 open, down 1,060
  • KC WZ 97,937 open, down 899
  • Total KC wheat 146,977 open, down 713

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CDT expecting +55B
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services come out tomorrow with their Malaysian Sept 1-20th palm oil export estimates
  • October options expire tomorrow at 115 pm CDT
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CDT
  • Veg oil conference in Mumbai this weekend
  • USDA quarterly stocks report is on Sept 30th at 11 am CDT

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg