News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

All deductions having been made, democracy has done less harm, and more good, than any other form of government.

~ Will Durant.

 

USDA announced 1.93 MMT of US beans sold to China for ‘13/14 delivery

 

USDA announced 182,000 tons of US beans sold to unknown for ‘13/14 delivery

 

Overnight closes

  • SX down 5 ¾ at 1336 ¾
  • CZ unchanged at 454
  • WZ up 1 ½ at 644 ½
  • KC WZ up 1 ½ at 691 ¾
  • SMZ down 2.30 at 424.30
  • BOZ down 19 at 4205
  • RRX up 4.50 at 1557.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 12,020
  • CZ 6,560
  • WZ 2,140
  • KC WZ 441
  • SMZ 3,034
  • BOZ 4,411
  • RRX 9

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 3-6 lower
  • Corn steady mixed
  • Wheat 1-2 higher
  • KC wheat 1-2 higher
  • Meal 2-3 lower
  • Bean oil 15-25 lower
  • Rice 4-6 higher

 

Dollar and crude oil higher. Gold, silver, and stock market lower.

 

Nikkei up 1.353%

Hang Seng down .272%

Shanghai Index up .283%

 

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday

  • Crude a draw of 252,000 expecting a draw of 1.4 MB
  • Gas a draw of 641,000 expecting a build of 300,000
  • Distillates a draw of 167,000 expecting a build of 800,000

 

Today is the second day of the FOMC policy meeting. Rate announcement and Ben Bernanke press conference today at 1 pm CDT.

 

Palm oil down 32.

 

Chinese grain markets higher

 

Egypt FIHC bought 12K tons of sunflower oil for Oct-Nov shipment

 

Pakistan has bought 500,000 tons of Black Sea origin wheat (1st time in three years) over the past few weeks

 

Bangladesh has bought 200,000 tons of Ukraine wheat over the past few weeks

 

Japan bought 67,000 feed barley and 1,280 feed wheat via SBS tender for Dec shipment

 

Japan seeks 120K feed wheat and 200K feed barley via SBS tender for Dec shipment

 

Taiwan seeks 92,350 tons of US wheat for Nov –Dec shipment

 

Bangladesh seeks 50K optional origin food wheat for Oct- Nov shipment

 

Thoughts that China’s soybean needs are mostly covered through December.

 

Abiove said Brazil’s soy crushing industries struggle , despite a record bean crop. Crushing is at a 4 year low.

 

Abiove said Brazil’s Feb – July crush volume is down 7% from a year ago at 19.3 MMT

 

Abiove said Brazil’s yearly domestic bean oil use is about 5.5 MMT

 

Abiove said Brazil’s yearly bean oil exports is about 1.3 MMT

 

Abiove estimated Brazil’s 2013 bean exports at 40.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 39.0 MMT

 

Abiove estimated Brazil’s 2013 crushing at 35.9 MMT vs. previous estimate of 37.2 MMT

 

Yesterday Informa estimated 2013 US corn crop at 13.80 BB vs. previous estimate of 14.013 BB and vs. USDA estimate of 13.843 BB

 

Yesterday Informa estimated 2013 US bean crop at 3.239 BB vs. previous estimate of 3.22 BB and vs. USDA estimate of 3.149 BB

 

Yesterday Informa estimated ‘13/14 US all wheat production at 2.08 BB vs. USDA estimate of 2.114 BB

 

Showers and warmer temps in the Midwest next few days.  75% coverage through the weekend down 5% from yesterday

 

16 wheat receipts canceled yesterday afternoon out of ADM Toledo OH

 

1 corn receipt canceled yesterday afternoon out of CGB Utica IL

 

21 bean receipts canceled yesterday afternoon 2 out of ADM and 19 out of CGB Hennepin IL

 

19 KC wheat receipts canceled yesterday afternoon out of ADM Hutchinson Elev. A , KS

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CZ 726,745 open, up 12,136
  • Total corn 1,124,746 open, up 18,785
  • SX 346,098 open, down 1,386
  • Total beans 613,504 open, down 186
  • SMZ 155,052 open, down 1,966
  • Total meal 269,332 open, down 1,433
  • BOZ 161,352 open, up 2,929
  • Total bean oil 291,416 open, up 3,500
  • WZ 249,300 open, down 372
  • Total wheat 356,246 open, up 163
  • KC WZ 98,860 open, down 662
  • Total KC 147,733 open, down 753

 

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly DOE #s come out today at 930 am CDT expecting
    • Crude a draw of 1.2 MB
    • Gas a build of 500K
    • Distillates a build of 500K
  • Weekly ethanol plant production report comes out today at 930 am CDT
  • There will be no Chinese bean auction this week due to holiday.
  • Chinese markets are closed Thursday and Friday for holiday
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT
  • October options expire on Friday
  • Veg oil conference in Mumbai this weekend
  • USDA quarterly stocks report is on Sept 30th at 11 am CDT

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg