News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

just because it did once does not mean it will again…

anon

 

Overnight closes

  • SX up 16 ¾ at 1365
  • CZ up 10 ¼ at 466 ¾
  • WZ up 6 ¾ at 648
  • KC WZ up 4 ½ at 694 ¼
  • SMZ up 5.90 at 434.40
  • BOZ up 25 at 4262
  • RRX up 2.50 at 1559

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 27,632
  • CZ 28,239
  • WZ 5,485
  • KC WZ 814
  • SMZ 7,222
  • BOZ 8,009
  • RRX 41

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 15-17 higher
  • Corn 9-11 higher
  • Wheat 6-8 higher
  • KC Wheat 3-5 higher
  • Meal 5.50-6.50 higher
  • Bean oil 20-30 higher
  • Rice 2-3 higher

 

Silver, gold, crude oil, and dollar lower. Stock market higher

 

Nikkei down .646%

Hang Seng down .309%

Shanghai Index down 2.062%

 

US Aug CPI came out this morning at +.1% as expected

 

FOMC 2 day policy meeting begins today. Rate announcement tomorrow

 

Palm oil up 7

 

Chinese grain markets lower

 

Malaysian government to keep October palm oil export tax unchanged from September at 4.5%

 

SGS estimated Malaysia’s Sept 1-15th palm oil exports at 715,642 tons up 12% from a month ago

 

Intertek Agri Services estimated Malaysia’s Sept 1-15th palm oil exports at 732,412 tons up 14% from a month ago

 

Chinese industry analysts – Chinese crush breakdown

  • For the week September 7-13th total crush volume at 1,461,320 tons up 5.85% from a week ago
  • For the week September 7-13th total crush capacity utilization at 54.55% up 3.02% from a week ago
  • Total crush volume between Oct 1st 2012- September 13th, 2013 at 59,230,140 tons up 3.90% from a year ago
  • Total crush volume between Jan 1st 2013- September 13th 2013 at 43,667,560 tons up 6.35% from a year ago
  • As of September 13th total import bean stocks at 6.067 MMT down 119,000 tons from a week ago and down 10.55% from a year ago
  • Estimated September bean imports at 4.9135 MMT
  • Estimated October bean imports at 4.8 MMT
  • Estimated November bean imports at 6.0 MMT

 

Hearing China bought 2 cargoes of US beans yesterday for Dec-Jan shipment

 

Chinese importers sign agreements to import 4.83 MMT of US beans in ‘13/14

 

30 redeliveries for Minneapolis wheat

 

33 wheat receipts canceled yesterday afternoon out of ADM Toledo OH

 

Light rains in forecast for Midwest with 80% coverage through the weekend

 

FSA numbers from this morning

  • Planted acreage
    • Corn 91.4 MA vs. 88.8 MA a month ago and vs. USDA June estimate of 97.4 MA
    • Beans 74.7 MA vs. 72.1 MA a month ago    vs. USDA June estimate of 77.7 MA
  • Prevent Planted Acres
    • Corn 3.57 MA vs. Aug FSA estimate of 3.411 MA
    • Beans  1.69 MA vs. Aug FSA estimate of 1.618 MA
    • All wheat 1.977 MA  vs. Aug FSA estimate of 1.743 MA

 

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday

 

Corn

  • Condition 53% good to excellent down 1% from a week ago and vs. 24% a year ago.(expecting down 1-2% from a week ago)
  • Doughing 97% vs. 92% a week ago and vs. 97% 5 year average
  • Dented 81% vs. 64% a week ago and vs. 86% 5 year average
  • Mature 22% vs. 9% a week ago and vs. 41% 5 year average
  • Harvested 4% vs. 24% a year ago and vs. 10% 5 year average

 

Beans

  • Condition 50% good to excellent down 2% from a week ago and vs. 33% a year ago (expecting down 1-3% from a week ago)
  • Dropping leaves 26% vs. 11% a week ago and vs. 35% 5 year average
  • Bean harvest by state
    • TX 50% vs. 38% a week ago vs. 54% a year ago and vs. 57% average
    • LA 38% vs. 21% a week ago vs. 51% a year ago and vs. 44% average
    • AR 11% vs. 4% a week ago vs. 27% a year ago and vs. 13% average
    • IN 1% vs. 4% a year ago and vs. 4% average

 

Spring wheat

  • Harvested 90% vs. 80% a week ago and vs. 87% 5 year average

 

Winter Wheat

  • Planted 12% vs. 5% a week ago and vs. 12% 5 year average

 

Rice

  • Condition 73% good to excellent up 2% from a week ago
  • Harvested 35% vs. 24% a week ago and vs. 43% 5 year average

 

Cotton

  • Condition 43% good to excellent down 2% from a week ago and unchanged from a year ago
  • Bolls opening 36% vs. 24% a week ago and vs. 51% 5 year average
  • Harvested 4% vs. 6% a year ago and vs. 8% 5 year average

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CZ 714,795 open, up 2,583
  • Total corn 1,106,081 open, up 7,475
  • SX 347,671 open, down 6,311
  • Total beans 613,990 open, down 5,058
  • SMZ 157,062 open, down 1,911
  • Total meal 270,878 open, down 2,700
  • BOZ 158,623 open, down 1,441
  • Total bean oil 288,140 open, down 1,627
  • WZ 249,726 open, down 2,227
  • Total wheat 356,168 open, d9own 1,544
  • KC WZ 99,635 open, down 281
  • Total KC wheat 148,724 open, down 449

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CDT
  • Weekly DOE #s come out tomorrow at 930 am CDT
  • Weekly ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT
  • There will be no Chinese bean auction this week due to holiday.
  • Chinese markets are closed Thursday and Friday for holiday
  • October options expire on Friday
  • Veg oil conference in Mumbai this weekend

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg