News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

“We must have football. What would this country be without football in October?

Hunter S. Thompson

 

NOPA August crush report comes out today at 11 am CDT expecting

  • Crush average estimate 110.7 MB (smallest since September 2011) , range of estimates are 105.5-114.0 MB. July crush was 116.338 MB and Aug 2012 crush was 124.773 MB
  • Bean oil stocks average estimate 1.856 B pounds, range of estimates are 1.750-1.980 B. July bean oil stocks were 2.050 B and August 2012 bean oil stocks were 2.168 B
  • No estimate is given for meal exports, but July exports were 351,536 tons and August 2012 exports were 613,196 tons

 

Overnight closes

  • SX down 14 ½ at 1367
  • CZ up a ¼ at 459 ¼
  • WZ unchanged at 641 ½
  • KC WZ unchanged at 692
  • SMZ down 5.80 at 437.00
  • BOZ down 15 at 4241
  • RRX down 1.50 at 1540.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 23,648
  • CZ 12,761
  • WZ 3,423
  • KC WZ 308
  • SMZ 6,854
  • BOZ 8,299
  • RRX 48

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 13-15 lower
  • Corn  steady mixed
  • Wheat steady mixed
  • KC wheat steady mixed
  • Meal 5.50-6.50 lower
  • Bean oil 10-20 lower
  • Rice 1-2 lower

 

Dollar and crude oil lower. Gold, silver, and stock market higher.

 

Nikkei up .121%

Hang Seng up 1.471%

Shanghai Index down .211%

 

Malaysia palm oil markets closed today for holiday.

 

China grain closes- beans down 43, corn up 6, meal down 67, palm oil down 12, bean oil down 110, rapeseed up 25, rapeseed meal down 44, rapeseed oil down 86

 

TALK Brazil bought 2 cargoes of HRW US wheat and 2 cargoes of western red spring Canadian wheat last week.

 

TALK Brazil is buying new crop Argentine wheat.

 

Chinese government to buy 1.2 MMT of rice from Thailand over the next two weeks.

 

Oil World estimated 2013 global canola crop at 70.0 MMT vs. 68.3 MMT in 2012

 

Oil World estimated 2013 global canola ending stocks at 6.5 MMT vs. 5.0 MMT in 2012

 

Safras e Mercado said Brazilian 1st corn crop is 3.9% planted vs. 3.5% a year ago

 

Cargill crushing plant in Argentina ran out of soybeans , they will halt operations for two months . Argentina exported 31,300 bean oil to China in the first quarter of 2013 vs. 47,198 tons a year ago . Argentina soybean exports to China in the first quarter of 2013 was up 66% from the first quarter of 2012.

 

Ukraine State Statistics Office said September 1st grain stocks were at 20.8 MMT up 7% from a year ago, including 15.1 MMT of wheat, 3.3 MMT of barley, 1.0 MMT of corn and 500K tons of rye.

 

Ukraine state statistics office said September 1st sunflower stocks at 1.3 MMT up 56% from a year ago

 

Kazakhstan exported 2.482 MMT of wheat between Jan –July down 56% from a year ago

 

Kazak farmers union estimated Kazakhstan’s ‘13/14 grain exports at 6.0 MMT vs. Ag Min estimate of 7-8 MMT

 

Kazak farmers union estimated Kazakhstan’s ‘13/14 grain crop at 15.3 MMT vs. Ag Min estimate of 16.3 MMT

 

Southern Australia ‘13/14 wheat crop estimated at 4.9 MMT vs. previous estimate of 4.3 MMT and vs. 3.6 MMT in ‘12/13

 

Southern Australia’s ‘13/14 total crop production estimated at 8.7 MMT vs. previous estimate of 7.6 MMT

 

Vietnam Food Association said Vietnam exported 100,565 tons of rice between Sept 1st – Sept 12th. Vietnam exported 4.79 MMT of rice between Jan 1st – Sept 12th.

 

Rains over the weekend in IA, northern IL , WI , and Minnesota.

 

Rains in forecast this week for Midwest.

 

59 wheat receipts canceled Friday afternoon out of ADM Toledo OH

 

21 new bean receipts canceled Friday afternoon , 2 out of ADM Hennepin IL and 19 out of CGB Hennepin IL

 

Soybean oil delivery differentials for 2014

  • Illinois Par unchanged from 2013
  • Eastern – 20 vs. -30 in 2013
  • Eastern Iowa – 130 vs. -120 in 2013
  • Southwest +85 vs. +75 in 2013
  • Northern – 125 unchanged from 2013
  • Western +5 unchanged from 2013

 

Soymeal delivery differentials for 2014 (all unchanged from 2013)

  • central Par
  • northeast +2.00
  • mid-south +9.50
  • Missouri +3.50
  • Eastern IA – 2.00
  • Northern – 2.50  

 

Deliveries

  • Bean oil 102 with the date current
    • House ADM issued 2
  • Beans 21 with the date at Sept 12
    • Hose ADM issued 2
    • Customer ABN issued 19 and stopped 21
  • Wheat 30 with the date current
    • House ADM issued 1
  • KC wheat 20 with the date current
    • House ADM stopped 20
  • Corn 4 with the date current
  • No Minneapolis wheat
  • No meal

 

Weekly COT supplemental report from Friday. Large spec positions as of Sept 10th futures at options combined

  • Wheat short 83,412
  • KC wheat short 13
  • Corn short 139,260
  • Beans long 106,310
  • Meal long 43,585
  • Bean oil short 33,381

 

Open interest as of Friday’s close

  • CZ 712,532 open, up 2,646
  • Total corn 1,098,940 open, up 7,586
  • SX 353,896 open, down 2,638
  • Total beans 618,883 open, up 2,143
  • SMZ 159,033 open, down 1,674
  • Total meal 273,711 open, down 159
  • BOZ 159,184 open, up 1,560
  • Total bean oil 389,870 open, up 5,851
  • WZ 252,045 open, down 1,886
  • Total wheat 357,806 open, down 1,940
  • KC WZ 99,952 open, up 392
  • Total KC wheat 149,331 open, up 2,541

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly US export inspections come out today at 10 am CDT
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CDT expecting corn good to excellent conditions to fall 1-2% and expecting bean conditions to fall 1-3%
  • FSA acreage certification update comes out tomorrow at about 5 or 6 am CDT  expecting corn planted area to fall 1-2 MA and expecting bean planted area to fall 350,000-750,000 acres
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s Sept 1-15th palm oil exports tomorrow
  • Tomorrow US CPI comes out at 730 am CDT
  • FOMC two day policy meeting begins tomorrow. Rate announcement on Wednesday.
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CDT
  • There will be no Chinese bean auction this week due to holiday.
  • October options expire on Friday

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg