News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

Some have been thought brave because they were afraid to run away.
– Ralph Waldo Emerson

 

September futures expire today at noon CDT . Open interest as of yesterday’s close in Sept futures.

  • CU 749 open, down 1,865
  • SU 52 open, down 242
  • SMU 55 open, down 278
  • BOU 267 open, down 53
  • WU 75 open, down 110
  • KC WU 11 open, down 64

 

Overnight closes

  • SX up 1 ¾ at 1397 ¾
  • CZ down 1 ¾ at 464 ½
  • WZ down 4 at 649
  • KC WZ down 3 ¼ at 698 ½
  • SMZ up 1.10
  • BOZ down 12
  • RRX up 1

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 21,574
  • CZ 9,350
  • WZ 4,898
  • KC WZ 438
  • SMZ 7,060
  • BOZ 8,630
  • RRX 15

 

Opening calls

  • Beans mixed
  • Corn 1-2 lower
  • Wheat 3-5 lower
  • KC wheat 2-4 lower
  • Meal .50-1.50 higher
  • Bean oil  10-15 lower
  • Rice steady better

 

Gold , silver, and crude lower. Dollar and stock market higher.

 

Nikkei up .121%

Hang Seng down .167%

Shanghai Index down .853%

 

Palm oil up 5.

 

China grain market closings – beans up 14, meal up 83, bean oil down 2, corn unchanged, and palm oil down 12

 

Meal limits are normal $20 today. Oct meal hit limit bid on the close yesterday.

 

Hearing China bought 2 cargoes of US beans off the Gulf yesterday for Dec-Jan shipment

 

Japan seeks 9K food wheat and 3K barley via SBS tender for Dec shipment

 

Goldman Sachs raised their 3 month bean price forecast to $12.50 vs. previous of $10.50

 

GS raised their 6 month bean price forecast to $11.50 vs. previous forecast of $10.50

 

GS left their 3 and 6 month corn price forecast unchanged at $4.25 and $6.50

 

GS left their 3-6-12 month wheat price forecast unchanged at $6.50.

 

Solvent Extractors Association of India said India imported 757,830 tons of veg oils in August

 

Solvent Extractors Association of India said India imported 8.8 MMT of veg oils between Nov-August up 7.3% from a year ago

 

Solvent Extractors Association of India said India imported 534,139 tons of palm oil in August down 7.5% from a month ago

 

Solvent Extractors Association of India estimated India’s September veg oil imports at 800,000 tons

 

Russia’s grain harvest as of 9/12 – 68.4 MMT on 30.1 MH (65.2% of total area) with an average yield of 2.28 TPH. A year ago Russia harvested 60.2 MMT of grain on 33.0 MH with an average yield of 1.83 TPH

 

Kazakhstan grain harvest as of 9/13 – 7.516 MMT of grain on 6.358 MH (40.3% of total area) with an average yield of 1.18 TPH. A year ago Kazakhstan harvested 10.603 MMT of grain with an average yield of .83 TPH

 

Saskatchewan grain harvest as of September 9th 30% complete, better than average yields being seen.

 

US drought monitor said 31.6% of the Midwest was in moderate to severe drought this week vs. 28.7% a week ago. 70% of Iowa was in moderate to severe drought this week. Hottest September in Iowa since 1953.

 

Good rains in forecast for Midwest this weekend and into next week

 

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said beneficial rains this week in Argentine wheat areas

 

17 new wheat receipts registered yesterday afternoon out of the Andersons Maumee OH

 

42 wheat receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of ADM Toledo, OH

 

19 rice receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon .

 

Deliveries

  • KC Wheat 11 with the date current
    • ADM house issued 1 and stopped 11.
  • Wheat 58 with the date at 9/10
    • House ADM stopped 50
  • Corn 4 with the date at 6/10
  • Bean oil 264 with the date current
    • House ADM issued 240
  • No beans
  • No meal

 

USDA bean production and yield estimates by state

  • IA bean crop estimated at 405,490 and yield estimated at 43.0 BPA vs. Aug estimate of 433,780 bushels and 46.0 TPH
  • IL bean crop estimated at 430,100 and yield estimated at 46.0 BPA vs. Aug estimate of 439,450 and 47.0 BPA
  • MN bean crop estimated at 258,570 and yield at 39.0 BPA vs. Aug estimate of 271,830 and yield of 41.0 BPA
  • IN bean crop estimated at 251,040 yield estimated at 48.0 BPA vs. Aug estimate of 261,500 and yield of 50.0 BPA
  • NE bean crop estimated at 233,250 unchanged from Aug estimate and yield estimated at 48.0 BPA August yield estimated at 47.0 BPA
  • OH bean crop estimated at 221,970 and yield estimated at 49.0 BPA vs. August estimate of 226,500 bushels and yield of 50.0 BPA

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,091,454 open, up 14,636
  • Total beans 617,178 open, up 11,304
  • Total meal 274,311 open, up 5,407
  • Total bean oil 284,070 open, down 1,335
  • Total wheat 359,824 open, up 4,181
  • Total KC Wheat 146,835 open, up 1,432

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CDT
  • Weekly US export inspections come out on Monday at 10 am CDT
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CDT
  • FSA acreage certification update comes out on Sept 17th
  • Malaysian palm oil markets closed on Monday for holiday
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s Sept 1-15th palm oil exports on Sept 17th.

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg