News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

You cannot have a love affair with whiskey because whiskey will never love you back.

@GSElevator — in collaboration with John Carney (@Carney)

 

USDA September Crop production and supply and demand report comes out today at 11 am CDT (see below for estimates)

 

Overnight closes

  • SX down 3 ¼ at 1355
  • CZ down 2 ½ at 470
  • WZ up ¾ at 648 ¾
  • KC WZ up 1 ½ at 696 ¼
  • SMZ down 1.50 at 426.50
  • BOZ up 11 at 4307
  • RRX up 1.50 at 1559

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 15,179
  • CZ 12,112
  • WZ 2,298
  • KC WZ 649
  • SMZ 6,095
  • BOZ 5,378
  • RRX 25

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 2-4 lower
  • Corn 1-3 lower
  • Wheat steady better
  • KC wheat 1-2 higher
  • Meal 1-2 lower
  • Bean oil  10-15 higher
  • Rice  1-2 higher

 

Gold, silver, and stock market lower. Dollar and crude oil higher.

 

Nikkei down .262%

Hang Seng up .072%

Shanghai Index up .643%

 

Weekly US jobless claims came out this morning at – 31K to 292K expecting 330K

 

Palm oil up 7

 

Chinese grain market closes – beans up 5, meal up 31, bean oil up 16, corn up 3, palm oil down 4, rapeseed unchanged, rapeseed meal down 15, rapeseed oil up 6

 

Dorab Mistry expects to see new lows in veg oils / palm oil in early January

 

China sold 69.16% or 346,760 tons of beans at today’s auction.

 

Japan bought 113,572 tons of US, Canadian, and Australian milling wheat for Oct –Dec shipment

 

Japan seeks 120K feed wheat and 200K feed barley via SBS tender for Dec shipment

 

Japan received no bids in SBS tender for 120K feed wheat and 200K feed barley

 

China bought 1.2 MMT of Thailand rice for shipment through 2014

 

Analysts expect Ukraine and Russia 2013 corn crop to be record high of 40.0 MMT

 

IKAR estimated Russia 2013 corn crop at 10.0 MMT

 

IKAR estimated Russia 2013 corn exports at 3.0 MMT

 

SovEcon estimated Russia’s 2013 corn crop at 9.7 MMT vs. 2012 crop of 8.2 MMT

 

Strategie Grains estimated 2013 EU 28 soft wheat crop at 135.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 134.2 MMT

 

Strategie Grains estimated 2013 EU 28 barley crop at 59.1 MMT vs. previous estimate of 58.3 MMT

 

Strategie Grains estimated 2013 EU 28 corn crop at 64.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 65.7 MMT

 

Taiwan plans to buy 7.2 MMT of US grains in 2014-2015, including 5 MMT of corn, 1.7 MMT of wheat, and 500K tons of DDGS

 

Ukraine Ag Min estimates September grain exports at 2.5-2.6 MMT vs. 2.46 MMT in August

 

Argentine government approves an additional 3 MMT of corn exports in ‘12/13

 

Argentine government said 99% of the corn crop has been harvested

 

Argentine government estimated ‘12/13 corn crop at 32.1 MMT and ‘12/13 domestic demand at 8.0 MMT

 

Iran’s President said Iran will need to import 7.5 MMT of wheat in ‘13/14.

 

CME to lower margins on corn and wheat spreads today after the close

 

Some rains in the forecast today for western Midwest

 

37 wheat receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of ADM Toledo OH

 

Deliveries

  • Wheat 105 with the date at 9/09
    • ADM House stopped 59
  • KC Wheat 12 with the date at 8/29
    • House Term issued 12
    • House ADM stopped 1
  • Corn 4 with the date at 6/03
  • Bean oil 1 with the date at 9/05
  • No Minneapolis wheat
  • No beans
  • No meal

 

Weekly US export sales report

  • Wheat ’13/14 543,900, ‘14/15 8,000 (expecting 450-650K)
  • Corn ‘12/13 – 59,400 ‘13/14 332,600 ( expecting 400-500K)
  • Beans ‘12/13 – 9,900 ‘13/14 478,100 ( expecting 650-800K)
  • Meal ‘12/13 17,000 ‘13/14 111,700 (expecting 70-230K)
  • Bean oil ‘12/13 1,700 ‘13/14 4,500 (expecting 10-20K)
  • Cotton ‘13/14 134,400 ‘14/15 19,800

 

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 543,900 MT for delivery in the 2013/2014 marketing year were down 19 percent from the previous week and 1 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Brazil (210,800 MT, including 50,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), the Philippines (103,500 MT, including 45,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Nigeria (97,500 MT), South Korea (51,100 MT), Chile (36,900 MT), and Mexico (36,300 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (60,900 MT). Net sales of 8,000 MT for 2014/2015 were for Mexico (5,500 MT) and Malaysia (2,500 MT). Exports of 911,900 MT were down 5 percent from the previous week, but up 9 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (300,800 MT), Brazil (176,800 MT), the Philippines (128,500 MT), South Korea (54,500 MT), Taiwan (53,300 MT), Mexico (47,800 MT), and Japan (42,100 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 332,600 MT for the 2013/2014 marketing year (which began Sept. 1) were primarily for Mexico (181,200 MT), Japan (44,300 MT, including 29,600 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 4,500 MT), Costa Rica (31,600 MT, including 3,000 MT switched from El Salvador), Peru (30,000 MT), Venezuela (20,000 MT, including 10,000 MT switched from Colombia), and unknown destinations (8,800 MT). Decreases were reported for El Salvador (4,100 MT). Net Sales reductions of 59,400 MT for delivery in 2012/2013 resulted as increases for Japan (24,900 MT, including 46,500 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 21,600 MT), Jamaica (400 MT), and Hong Kong (100 MT), were more than offset by decreases for unknown destinations (46,500 MT), Mexico (21,600 MT), and Taiwan (16,700 MT). A total of 876,100 MT in sales were outstanding on August 31 (the end of the 2012/2013 marketing year) and carried over to the 2013/2014 marketing year. Exports of 64,700 MT were reported for August 31. The primary destinations were Japan (46,500 MT) and Mexico (11,100 MT). Accumulated exports for the 2012/2013 marketing year were 18,044,200 MT, down 52 percent from the prior year’s total of 37,914,800 MT. Exports for September 1-5 of 171,200 MT were primarily for Japan (77,700 MT), Mexico (54,800 MT), Guatemala (12,200 MT), and Venezuela (10,000 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales of 478,100 MT for the 2013/2014 marketing year (which began Sept. 1) were primarily for China (205,000 MT), unknown destinations (73,900 MT), Indonesia (43,300 MT, including 24,100 MT switched from unknown destinations), Costa Rica (41,000 MT), and Mexico (37,500 MT). A total of 928,500 MT in sales were outstanding on August 31 (the end of the 2012/2013 marketing year) and carried over to the 2013/2014 marketing year. Exports of 22,900 MT were reported for August 31. The primary destinations were Venezuela (12,000 MT), Cuba (4,600 MT), Japan (2,900 MT), and Taiwan (1,100 MT). Accumulated exports for the 2012/2013 marketing year were 36,243,000 MT, down 1 percent from the prior year’s total of 36,739,200 MT. Exports of 60,100 MT were reported for September 1-5. The primary destinations were Indonesia (37,700 MT), South Korea (10,500 MT), Malaysia (3,100 MT), Taiwan (2,900 MT), and Vietnam (2,400 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales of 17,000 MT for 2012/2013 resulted as increases for Canada (12,600 MT), Venezuela (9,000 MT, including 10,000 MT switched from Colombia and decreases of 1,000 MT), Guatemala (2,100 MT, switched from El Salvador), the Philippines (1,500 MT), and Japan (1,400 MT), were partially offset by decreases for Colombia (10,000 MT) and El Salvador (2,900 MT). Net sales of 111,700 MT for 2013/2014 were primarily for unknown destinations (40,000 MT), Denmark (24,000 MT), Mexico (23,100 MT), and Colombia (12,500 MT). Decreases were reported for Hong Kong (100 MT). Exports of 102,200 MT were down 36 percent from the previous week and 8 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (24,300 MT), Canada (22,600 MT), Venezuela (18,000 MT), Turkey (17,600 MT), and El Salvador (7,100 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 1,700 MT for 2012/2013 were primarily for Mexico (1,200 MT), Canada (100 MT), and Trinidad (100 MT). Net sales of 4,500 MT for 2013/2014 were reported for Mexico. Exports of 30,400 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Germany (20,000 MT), Norway (5,000 MT), and Mexico (4,700 MT).
  • Cotton – Net Upland sales of 134,400 RB for 2013/2014 were primarily for China (57,100 RB), Turkey (32,900 RB), Peru (10,100 RB), Thailand (6,500 RB), and Mexico (5,500 RB). Net sales of 19,800 RB for 2014/2015 were reported for Turkey. Exports of 123,500 RB were primarily to Vietnam (26,300 RB), China (25,700 RB), Mexico (20,300 RB), Turkey (20,100 RB), and Indonesia (6,200 RB). Net American Pima sales of 16,000 RB for 2013/2014 were primarily for China (14,000 RB), Thailand (1,400 RB), and Germany (500 RB). Exports of 7,700 RB were primarily to China (3,900 RB), India (1,700 RB), and Taiwan (1,100 RB).

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close – Sept futures expire tomorrow

  • CU 2,614 open, down 1,988
  • CZ 701,804 open, down 9,887
  • Total corn 1,076,911 open, down 7,934
  • SU 294 open, down 209
  • SX 355,490 open, down 5,636
  • Total beans 605,796 open, down 5,481
  • SMU 333 open, down 232
  • SMZ 159,468 open, down 51
  • Total meal 269,207 open, up 803
  • BOU 320 open, down 48
  • BOZ 159,020 open, down 980
  • Total bean oil 285,431 open, down 1,342
  • WU 185 open, down 67
  • WZ 251,395 open, down 378
  • Total wheat 355,754 open, up 899
  • KC WU 75 open, down 65
  • KC WZ 99,479 open, up 776
  • Total KC 145,453 open, up 2,357

 

Estimates for today’s USDA report

 

Estimates for 2013 US corn and soybean crops

  • 2013 US corn production (28 analysts surveyed) average estimate 13.620 BB, range of estimates are 13.330 – 14.013 BB. USDA August estimate was 13.763 BB and 2012 final production was 10.780 BB
  • 2013 US corn yield estimate (28 analysts surveyed) average estimate 153.69 BPA, range of estimates are 150.2 – 157.2 BPA. USDA August estimate was 154.4 BPA and 2012 final yield was 123.4 BPA.
  • 2013 US corn harvested acres (25 analysts surveyed) average estimate 88.559 MA, range of estimates are 87.0-89.14 MA. USDA August estimate was 89.1 MA and 2012 final harvested acres were 87.4 MA
  • 2013 US bean production (28 analysts surveyed) average estimate 3.140 BB, range of estimates are 2.98-3.239 BB. USDA August estimate was 3.255 BB and 2012 final production was 3.015 BB
  • 2013 US bean yield (28 analysts surveyed) average estimate 41.172 BPA, range of estimates are 39.0-42.4 BPA. USDA August estimate was 42.6 BPA and 2012 final yield was 39.6 BPA
  • 2013 US bean harvested acres (25 analysts surveyed) average estimate 76.248 MA, range of estimates are 75.1-77.0 MA. USDA August estimate was 76.4 MA and 2012 final harvested acres were 76.1 MA.

 

Estimates for ‘12/13 US ending stocks

  • ‘12/13 corn ending stocks (24 analysts surveyed) average estimate .718 BB, range of estimates are .579-.769 BB. USDA August estimate was .719 BB
  • ‘12/13 bean ending stocks (24 analysts surveyed) average estimate .123 BB, range of estimates are .107-.145 BB. USDA August estimate was .125 BB

 

Estimates for ‘13/14 US ending stocks

  • ‘13/14 wheat ending stocks (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate is .551 BB, range of estimates are .477-.600 BB. USDA August estimate was .551 BB
  • ‘13/14 corn ending stocks (24 analysts surveyed) average estimate 1.732 BB, range of estimates are 1.147 – 2.296 BB. USDA August estimate was 1.837 BB
  • ‘13/14 bean ending stocks (24 analysts surveyed) average estimate .165 BB, range of estimates are .114-.230 BB. USDA August estimate was .220 BB

 

Estimates for ‘12/13 global ending stocks

  • ‘12/13 global corn ending stocks (12 analysts surveyed) average estimate 122.798 MMT, range of estimates are 115.86-125.00 MMT. USDA August estimate was 123.110 MMT
  • ‘12/13 global bean ending stocks (13 analysts surveyed) average estimate 61.730 MMT, range of estimates are 59.700 – 62.220 MMT. USDA August estimate was 62.22 MMT

 

Estimates for ‘13/14 global ending stocks

  • ‘13/14 global wheat ending stocks (12 analysts surveyed) average estimate 172.76 MMT, range of estimates are 169.35-175.72 MMT. USDA August estimate was 172.990 MMT
  • ‘13/14 global corn ending stocks (12 analysts surveyed) average estimate 146.927 MMT, range of estimates are 125.90-152.00 MMT. USDA August estimate was 150.17 MMT
  • ‘13/14 global bean ending stocks (13 analysts surveyed) average estimate 71.167 MMT, range of estimates are 67.1-75.0. USDA August estimate was 72.27 MMT

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CDT expecting +67 B
  • LTD for Sept futures is Sept 13th . Futures expire at noon CDT
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CDT
  • FSA acreage certification update comes out on Sept 17th
  • Malaysian palm oil markets closed on Monday for holiday
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s Sept 1-15th palm oil exports on Sept 17th.

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg