News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

“You can be sure that the American spirit will prevail over this tragedy.”

Colin Powell

 

USDA announced 120K tons of HRW US wheat sold to Nigeria for ‘13/14 delivery

 

Overnight closes

  • SX up 3 ½ at 1358 ½
  • CZ unchanged at 469
  • WZ down a ¼ at 646 ¼
  • KC WZ up a ½ at 695 ¼
  • SMZ up 1.90 at 427.10
  • BOZ up 5 at 4312
  • RRX up 6 at 1549.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 13,755
  • CZ 9,045
  • WZ 3,142
  • KC WZ 1,114
  • SMZ 5,237
  • BOZ 6,982
  • RRX 60

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 2-4 higher
  • Corn mixed
  • Wheat steady lower
  • KC wheat steady lower
  • Meal 1.50-2.50 higher
  • Bean oil steady to 10 higher
  • Rice 5-7 higher

 

Silver and stock market higher. Crude, gold, and dollar lower.

 

Nikkei up .012%

Hang Seng down .172%

Shanghai Index up .139%

 

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday

  • Crude a draw of 2.9 MB expecting a draw of 1.5 MB
  • Gas a build of 195,000 expecting a draw of 1.3 MB
  • Distillates a build of 807,000 expecting a build of 500,000

 

Palm oil down 21

 

Chinese grain market closes – beans up 41, meal up 11, bean oil up 2, corn up 4, palm oil down 10.

 

CNGOIC 2013 Chinese crop estimates

  • Corn crop estimated at 215.0 MMT (record) up 4.6% from a year ago
  • ‘13/14 Chinese corn exports estimated at 5.5 MMT up 96% from ‘12/13 and down 21% from the USDA estimate
  • ‘13/14 Chinese corn consumption estimated at 199.79 MMT vs. previous estimate of 202.63 MMT
  • Rice crop estimated at 202.0 MMT down 1% from a year ago
  • Soybean crop estimated at 12.5 MMT down 4.2% from a year ago

 

China’s government estimated China’s 2013 grain crop (including wheat, corn, and rice) at 589.57 MMT

 

South Korea bought 23K US wheat

 

Bangladesh bought 50K optional origin wheat for October shipment
TALK China is seeking Australian wheat for Feb-March shipment

 

Taiwan signs deals to buy 5 MMT of US corn and to buy 500K of US DDGs over the next 2 years

 

Ukraine Ag Min estimated Ukraine’s 2013 corn crop at 29-30 MMT (record) vs. previous estimate of 26.0 MMT

 

Argentine Ag Min is expected to approve an additional 3 MMT of corn export licenses making the total 20.0 MMT

 

FranceAgriMer estimated France’s ‘13/14 soft wheat exports outside the EU at 11.0 MMT vs. 9.9 MMT a year ago

 

FranceAgriMer estimated France’s ‘13/14 soft ending stocks at 2.7 MMT vs. 2.9 MMT a year ago

 

21 wheat receipts canceled yesterday afternoon out of The Andersons

 

Rain in NE and west central IA yesterday.

 

Rains through the weekend expected with 60% coverage in the northwest and north central Midwest

 

Deliveries

  • Bean oil 1 with the date at 9/05
  • Corn 4 with the date at 4/10
  • Wheat 58 with the date at 9/09
    • House ADM stopped 42
  • Mini wheat 5 with the date at 7/05
  • No Minneapolis or KC wheat
  • No beans
  • No meal

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close- Sept futures expire on Friday

  • CU 4,602 open, down 3,145
  • CZ 711,756 open, up 1,317
  • Total corn 1,084,769  open, up 9,240
  • SU 503 open, down 198
  • SX 361,066 open, down 2,326
  • Total beans 611,378 open, down 708
  • SMU 565 open, down 368
  • SMZ 159,670 open, up 341
  • Total meal 268,606 open, up 2,278
  • BOU 368 open, down 134
  • BOZ 160,402 open, up 280
  • Total bean oil 286,823 open, up 1,940
  • WU 252 open, down 96
  • WZ 251,826 open, down 2,038
  • Total wheat 354,929 open, down 2,453
  • KC WU 140 open, down 280
  • KC WZ 98,818 open, up 110
  • Total KC 143,211 open, up 430

 

Estimates for tomorrow’s USDA report

 

Estimates for 2013 US corn and soybean crops

  • 2013 US corn production (28 analysts surveyed) average estimate 13.620 BB, range of estimates are 13.330 – 14.013 BB. USDA August estimate was 13.763 BB and 2012 final production was 10.780 BB
  • 2013 US corn yield estimate (28 analysts surveyed) average estimate 153.69 BPA, range of estimates are 150.2 – 157.2 BPA. USDA August estimate was 154.4 BPA and 2012 final yield was 123.4 BPA.
  • 2013 US corn harvested acres (25 analysts surveyed) average estimate 88.559 MA, range of estimates are 87.0-89.14 MA. USDA August estimate was 89.1 MA and 2012 final harvested acres were 87.4 MA
  • 2013 US bean production (28 analysts surveyed) average estimate 3.140 BB, range of estimates are 2.98-3.239 BB. USDA August estimate was 3.255 BB and 2012 final production was 3.015 BB
  • 2013 US bean yield (28 analysts surveyed) average estimate 41.172 BPA, range of estimates are 39.0-42.4 BPA. USDA August estimate was 42.6 BPA and 2012 final yield was 39.6 BPA
  • 2013 US bean harvested acres (25 analysts surveyed) average estimate 76.248 MA, range of estimates are 75.1-77.0 MA. USDA August estimate was 76.4 MA and 2012 final harvested acres were 76.1 MA.

 

Estimates for ‘12/13 US ending stocks

  • ‘12/13 corn ending stocks (24 analysts surveyed) average estimate .718 BB, range of estimates are .579-.769 BB. USDA August estimate was .719 BB
  • ‘12/13 bean ending stocks (24 analysts surveyed) average estimate .123 BB, range of estimates are .107-.145 BB. USDA August estimate was .125 BB

 

Estimates for ‘13/14 US ending stocks

  • ‘13/14 wheat ending stocks (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate is .551 BB, range of estimates are .477-.600 BB. USDA August estimate was .551 BB
  • ‘13/14 corn ending stocks (24 analysts surveyed) average estimate 1.732 BB, range of estimates are 1.147 – 2.296 BB. USDA August estimate was 1.837 BB
  • ‘13/14 bean ending stocks (24 analysts surveyed) average estimate .165 BB, range of estimates are .114-.230 BB. USDA August estimate was .220 BB

 

Estimates for ‘12/13 global ending stocks

  • ‘12/13 global corn ending stocks (12 analysts surveyed) average estimate 122.798 MMT, range of estimates are 115.86-125.00 MMT. USDA August estimate was 123.110 MMT
  • ‘12/13 global bean ending stocks (13 analysts surveyed) average estimate 61.730 MMT, range of estimates are 59.700 – 62.220 MMT. USDA August estimate was 62.22 MMT

 

Estimates for ‘13/14 global ending stocks

  • ‘13/14 global wheat ending stocks (12 analysts surveyed) average estimate 172.76 MMT, range of estimates are 169.35-175.72 MMT. USDA August estimate was 172.990 MMT
  • ‘13/14 global corn ending stocks (12 analysts surveyed) average estimate 146.927 MMT, range of estimates are 125.90-152.00 MMT. USDA August estimate was 150.17 MMT
  • ‘13/14 global bean ending stocks (13 analysts surveyed) average estimate 71.167 MMT, range of estimates are 67.1-75.0. USDA August estimate was 72.27 MMT

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly DOE #s come out today at 930 am CDT expecting
    • Crude draw of 2 MB
    • Gas draw of 1 MB
    • Distillates build of 500K
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out today at 930 am CDT
  • China to auction 500K tons of beans from reserves tomorrow
  • Dorab Mistry will put out his veg oil outlook forecasts tomorrow
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT
  • USDA crop production report comes out tomorrow at 11 am CDT .
  • LTD for Sept futures is Sept 13th . Futures expire at noon CDT
  • FSA acreage certification update comes out on Sept 17th

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg