News From The Grain Floor

“His whole life has been one continued insult to good manners and to decency.”

John Adams speaking of Ben Franklin

 

Egypt GASC is in for wheat for November shipment.

 

USDA announced 121K new crop US beans sold to unknown

 

Tomorrow the CBOT will observe moments of silence at 718-719 am CDT and at 828-829 am CDT. NY Stock Exchange will observe moments of silence at 746, 803, 859, and 929 am CDT one minute at each time.

 

Overnight closes

  • SX down 7 ¼ at 1349 ¼
  • CZ down a ½ at 463
  • WZ up a ½ at 641 ¾
  • KC WZ down a ¼ at 688 ¼
  • SMZ down 2.20 at 424.30
  • BOZ down 22 at 4295
  • RRX down 7 at 1527

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 21,167
  • CZ 9,494
  • WZ 4,388
  • KC WZ 486
  • SMZ 6,912
  • BOZ 11,630
  • RRX 83

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 6-8 lower
  • Corn steady lower
  • Wheat steady mixed
  • KC wheat steady mixed
  • Meal 1.50-2.50 lower
  • Bean oil  15-25 lower
  • Rice  6-8 lower

 

Crude , gold, and silver lower. Dollar and stock market higher

 

Nikkei up 1.536%

Hang Seng up .993%

Shanghai Index up 1.147%

Most world stock markets are higher this morning

 

Palm oil down 51.

 

Chinese grain markets – beans down 13, meal down 52, bean oil down 104, corn down 7, palm oil down 132.

 

Malaysian Palm Oil Board Aug data report came out this morning   

  • August palm oil output at 1.74  MMT vs. average estimate 1.76 MMT and vs. 1.67 MMT in July
  • August palm oil exports at 1.52 MMT vs. average estimate 1.53 MMT and vs. 1.42 MMT in July
  • August palm oil stocks at 1.67   MMT vs. average estimate 1.73 MMT and vs. 1.66 MMT in July

 

Surveyor SGS estimated Malaysia’s Sept 1-10th palm oil exports at 449,821 tons up 6.8% from a month ago

 

Surveyor Intertek Agri Services estimated Malaysia’s Sept 1-10th palm oil exports at 462,671 tons up 11% from a month ago

 

Reuters article – China feed mills buying US sorghum as corn import quotas run out. Private mills used up 2.88 import quotas. China has already bought 800K tons of US sorghum. China may buy 1.0 MMT of sorghum in ‘13/14 .

 

Chinese industry analysts – Chinese crush breakdown

  • For the week 8/31/13-9/6/13 total crush volume at 1,380,520 tons down 7.36% from a week ago
  • For the week 8/31/13-9/06/13 total crush capacity utilization at 51.53% down 4.1% from a week ago
  • Expecting total crush volume for next week to reach 1.42 MMT, most crushing plants will resume next week.
  • Total August crush volume at 6.09413 MMT up 1.08% from a month ago and up 16.97% from a year ago
  • Total crush volume between Oct 1st 2012 – Sept 6, 2013 at 57,768,820 tons up 3.76% from a year ago
  • Total crush volume between Jan 1st 2013- Sept 6, 2013 at 42,206,240 tons up 6.68% from a year ago
  • As of Sept 6th total imported bean stocks at 6.19 MMT down 138,900 tons from a week ago and down 8.30% from a year ago
  • Estimated September bean imports at 4.9135 MMT
  • Estimated October bean imports at 4.6 MMT
  • Estimated Nov bean imports at 6.0 MMT

 

Oman bought 30K Russian wheat for Nov shipment

 

Japan seeks 113,572 tons of US, Canadian, and Australian milling wheat for Oct –Dec shipment

 

Brazil expanded tax-free wheat import quotas by 400K to 2.7 MMT . Brazil feed mills have already bought 2.3 MMT of US and Canadian wheat

 

Safras e Mercados said Brazil has sold 25% of their ‘13/14 bean crop vs. 17% a month ago and vs. 43% a year ago . Brazil has sold 89% of their ‘12/13 bean crop vs. 97% a year ago

 

Safras e Mercados estimated Brazil’s ‘13/14 bean crop at 88.17 MMT (record) vs. 82.0 MMT a year ago

 

CONAB Brazilian crop estimates

  • ‘12/13 bean crop estimated at 81.5 MMT unchanged from previous
  • ‘12/13 total corn crop estimated at 81.3 MMT up 1.0 MMT from previous
  • 2013 wheat crop estimated at 4.95 MMT vs. previous estimate of 5.62 MMT

 

MENA said Egypt has enough wheat supply to last until mid Feb

 

Russia federal stats services said Russia exported 6.417 MMT of grain between July 1- Sept 4th up 20% from a year ago

 

Russia federal stats services said Russia exported 3.48 MMT of grain in August vs. 2.4 MMT in July and vs. 2.75 MMT a year ago

 

Russia’s Ag Min said as of Sept 9th Russia had harvested 66.8 MMT of grain on 29 MH (63% of total area) with an average yield of 2.31 TPH. A year ago Russia harvested 58.5 MMT of grain on 31.6 MH with an average yield of 1.85 TPH

 

UkrAgroConsult estimated 2013 Ukraine grain crop at 56.06 MMT (record) vs. previous estimate of 53.8 MMT , estimated corn crop at 25.5 MMT (record) up 8% from previous estimate , estimated wheat crop at 21.0 MMT

 

Ukraine Ag Min said as of Sept 9th Ukraine harvested 33.3 MMT of grain on 10.8 MH with an average yield of 3.08 TPH. A year ago Ukraine harvested 26.56 MMT of grain on 10.26 MH with an average yield of 2.59 TPH

 

Kazakhstan Ag Min said as of Sept 10th Kazakhstan harvested 6.02 MMT of grain on 5.102MH (32.3% of total area) with an average yield of 1.18 TPH. A year ago Kazakhstan harvested 9.18 MMT of grain with an average yield of .8 TPH

 

France Farm Minister estimated 2013 soft wheat crop at 37.0 MMT previous estimate of 36.1 MMT and up 4.1% from a year ago

 

Analysts said Indonesia Jan – Aug soybean imports at 850K tons vs. 2012 total imports of 1.9 MMT

 

Indonesia’s government expects to import 1.9 MMT of beans in 2013.

 

Analysts said that soybean stocks are at multi year lows of 315,000 tons

 

168 bean oil receipts canceled yesterday afternoon out of Bunge Danville IL

 

Midwest weather – 6-10 day wetter. European models wetter than American models. Some rain in forecast for this weekend

 

ABARES ‘13/14 Australian crop estimates

  • Wheat crop estimated at 24.467 MMT vs. previous estimate of 25.399 MMT
  • Canola crop estimated at 3.31 MMT vs. previous estimate of 3.23 MMT
  • Cotton crop estimated at 990K tons vs. previous estimate of 995K tons

 

Deliveries

  • Wheat 124 with the date at 9/06 – ADM house stopped 37
  • Bean oil 13 with the date at 9/05
  • Corn 4 with the date at 3/28
  • No Minneapolis wheat
  • No KC wheat
  • No meal
  • No beans

 

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday

 

Corn

  • Condition 54% good to excellent down 2% from a week ago (expecting down 1-3%) and vs. 22% a year ago
    • CO down 11%
    • IN down 5%
    • IA down 4%
    • WI down 4%
    • IL down 2%
    • MN down 2%
    • NE down 2%
    • PA down 2%
    • TN down 2%
    • MO up 3%
    • OH up 2%
    • SD up 2%
  • Mature 9% vs. 4% a week ago and vs. 28% five year average
  • Dented 64% vs. 42% a week ago and vs. 75% five year average
  • Doughing 92% vs. 84% a week ago and vs. 94% five year average
  • Harvest by state
    • LA 97% vs. 98% a year ago and vs. 93% average
    • GA 69% vs. 81% a year ago and vs. 77% average
    • MS 60% vs. 91% a year ago and vs. 77% average
    • TX 60% vs. 62% a year ago and vs. 58% average
    • SC 52% vs. 78% a year ago and vs. 74% average
    • AR 43% vs. 95% a year ago and vs. 63% average
    • OK 14% vs. 49% a year ago and vs. 38% average
    • KY 5% vs. 46% a year ago and vs. 22% average
    • KS 3% vs. 40% a year ago and vs. 17% average

 

Soybeans

  • Condition 52% good to excellent down 2% from a week ago (expecting down 3-5%) and vs. 32% a year ago
    • IN down 7%
    • KS down 7%
    • IA down 6%
    • NE down 5%
    • WI down 4%
    • IL down 3%
    • MO down 3%
    • SD down 3%
    • TN down 2%
    • ND down 2%
    • LA down 2%
    • AR up 7%
  • Dropping leaves 11% vs. 34% a year ago and vs. 19% five year average
  • Setting pods 97% vs. 92% a week ago and vs. 98% five year average
  • Harvest by state
    • LA 21% vs. 40% a year ago and vs. 34% average
    • TX 38% vs. 47% a year ago and vs. 45% average
    • AR 4% vs. 21% a year ago and vs. 9% average

 

Rice

  • Condition 71% good to excellent up 1% from a week ago and vs. 66% a year ago

 

Cotton

  • Condition 45% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago and vs. 41% a year ago

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close- Sept futures expire on Friday

  • CU 7,747 open, down 2,634
  • CZ 710,506 open, up 1,603
  • Total corn 1,075,525 open, up 3,666
  • SU 701 open, down 476
  • SX 363,650 open, down 797
  • Total beans 612,464 open, up 1,881
  • SMU 933 open, down 604
  • SMZ 159,371 open, down 288
  • Total meal 266,407 open, down 369
  • BOU 502 open, down 154
  • BOZ 159,201 open, up 1,463
  • Total bean oil 284,940 open, up 499
  • WU 350 open, down 119
  • WZ 254,165 open, up 334
  • Total wheat 357,741 open, down 1
  • KC WU 420 open, down 127
  • KC WZ 98,892 open, up 1,698
  • Total KC 142,970 open, up 1,766

 

Estimates for Thursday’s USDA report

 

Estimates for 2013 US corn and soybean crops

  • 2013 US corn production (28 analysts surveyed) average estimate 13.620 BB, range of estimates are 13.330 – 14.013 BB. USDA August estimate was 13.763 BB and 2012 final production was 10.780 BB
  • 2013 US corn yield estimate (28 analysts surveyed) average estimate 153.69 BPA, range of estimates are 150.2 – 157.2 BPA. USDA August estimate was 154.4 BPA and 2012 final yield was 123.4 BPA.
  • 2013 US corn harvested acres (25 analysts surveyed) average estimate 88.559 MA, range of estimates are 87.0-89.14 MA. USDA August estimate was 89.1 MA and 2012 final harvested acres were 87.4 MA
  • 2013 US bean production (28 analysts surveyed) average estimate 3.140 BB, range of estimates are 2.98-3.239 BB. USDA August estimate was 3.255 BB and 2012 final production was 3.015 BB
  • 2013 US bean yield (28 analysts surveyed) average estimate 41.172 BPA, range of estimates are 39.0-42.4 BPA. USDA August estimate was 42.6 BPA and 2012 final yield was 39.6 BPA
  • 2013 US bean harvested acres (25 analysts surveyed) average estimate 76.248 MA, range of estimates are 75.1-77.0 MA. USDA August estimate was 76.4 MA and 2012 final harvested acres were 76.1 MA.

 

Estimates for ‘12/13 US ending stocks

  • ‘12/13 corn ending stocks (24 analysts surveyed) average estimate .718 BB, range of estimates are .579-.769 BB. USDA August estimate was .719 BB
  • ‘12/13 bean ending stocks (24 analysts surveyed) average estimate .123 BB, range of estimates are .107-.145 BB. USDA August estimate was .125 BB

 

Estimates for ‘13/14 US ending stocks

  • ‘13/14 wheat ending stocks (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate is .551 BB, range of estimates are .477-.600 BB. USDA August estimate was .551 BB
  • ‘13/14 corn ending stocks (24 analysts surveyed) average estimate 1.732 BB, range of estimates are 1.147 – 2.296 BB. USDA August estimate was 1.837 BB
  • ‘13/14 bean ending stocks (24 analysts surveyed) average estimate .165 BB, range of estimates are .114-.230 BB. USDA August estimate was .220 BB

 

Estimates for ‘12/13 global ending stocks

  • ‘12/13 global corn ending stocks (12 analysts surveyed) average estimate 122.798 MMT, range of estimates are 115.86-125.00 MMT. USDA August estimate was 123.110 MMT
  • ‘12/13 global bean ending stocks (13 analysts surveyed) average estimate 61.730 MMT, range of estimates are 59.700 – 62.220 MMT. USDA August estimate was 62.22 MMT

 

Estimates for ‘13/14 global ending stocks

  • ‘13/14 global wheat ending stocks (12 analysts surveyed) average estimate 172.76 MMT, range of estimates are 169.35-175.72 MMT. USDA August estimate was 172.990 MMT
  • ‘13/14 global corn ending stocks (12 analysts surveyed) average estimate 146.927 MMT, range of estimates are 125.90-152.00 MMT. USDA August estimate was 150.17 MMT
  • ‘13/14 global bean ending stocks (13 analysts surveyed) average estimate 71.167 MMT, range of estimates are 67.1-75.0. USDA August estimate was 72.27 MMT

 

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CDT
  • Weekly DOE #s come out tomorrow at 930 am CDT expecting
    • Crude draw of 2 MB
    • Gas draw of 1 MB
    • Distillates build of 500K
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT
  • USDA crop production report comes out on Thursday.
  • LTD for Sept futures is Sept 13th . Futures expire at noon CDT
  • FSA acreage certification update comes out on Sept 17th

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg