News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

It is not knowledge, but the act of learning, not possession but the act of getting there, which grants the greatest enjoyment.

Carl Friedrich Gauss
Overnight closes

  • SX up 4 ¼ at 1372
  • CZ down 2 ¼ at 466
  • WZ down 4 at 643 ¾
  • KC WZ down 2 ¼ at 693 ¼
  • SMZ up 1.60 at 430.50
  • BOZ up 7 at 4379
  • RRX down 13.50 at 1527.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 17,412
  • CZ 9,691
  • WZ 4,200
  • KC WZ 705
  • SMZ 4,348
  • BOZ 6,376
  • RRX 133

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 3-5 higher
  • Corn 2-4 lower
  • Wheat 3-5 lower
  • KC wheat 2-4 lower
  • Meal 1-2 higher
  • Bean oil 5-10 higher
  • Rice 10-15 lower

 

Crude, gold, silver, and dollar lower. Stock market higher

 

Nikkei up 2.485%

Hang Seng up .572%

Shanghai Index up 3.396%

 

US Congressional vote on military action against Syria today.

 

China’s Aug PPI – 1.6% expecting – 1.8% and +.1% from a month ago

 

China’s Aug CPI +2.6% as expected and +.5% from a month ago

 

China’s Aug trade surplus at $28.6 billion (highest since January) expecting $20 billion and vs. $17.82 billion surplus in July

 

China’s Aug imports +7.0% year on year vs. +10.9% a month ago

 

China’s Aug exports +7.2% year on year expecting +6.0% and vs. +5.1% in July

 

Palm oil down 42

 

Chinese grain market closes- beans up 6, corn up 1, meal up 18, palm oil up 34, and bean oil up 56.

 

China’s customs data showed China imported 6.37 MMT of beans in August down 11.5% from a month ago and up 44.1% from a year ago

 

China’s customs data showed China imported 41.05 MMT of beans between Jan-Aug up 4.4% from a year ago

 

TALK/Rumors continue that China will release 3.0 MMT of beans from reserves in December

 

Bank Indonesia said Indonesia exported 1.393 MMT of palm oil in July vs. 1.852 MMT in June

 

Bank Indonesia said Indonesia exported 12.302 MMT of palm oil between Jan-July vs. 10.167 MMT a year ago

 

South Korea KFA bought 60K optional origin corn for Feb shipment

 

South Korea KFA bought 69K tons of US or South American corn for March shipment

 

South Korea MFG bought 65K tons of US or South American corn for Feb shipment

 

South Korea MFG bought 60K tons of optional origin corn for Feb shipment

 

South Korea FLC bought 69K optional origin corn for Feb shipment

 

South Korea feed millers have bought 383K tons of optional origin corn for Feb-March shipment since Friday.

 

South Korea feed millers have their corn needs covered through January.

 

South Korea feed millers seeking 220,000 tons of corn for February shipment

 

Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine exported 4.1 MMT of grain between July 1st – Sept 6th up 12.9% from a year ago , including 2.2 MMT of wheat, 1.4 MMT of barley, and 600,000 tons of corn.

 

Ukraine Ag Min estimated Ukraine’s ‘13/14 grain exports at 26.0 MMT vs. 23.0 MMT in ‘12/13

 

Ukraine Ag Min estimated Ukraine’s ‘13/14 grain crop at 53-54 MMT vs. 46.2 MMT in ‘12/13

 

CSU estimated Czech 2013 grain crop at 6.746 MMT vs. previous estimate of 6.532 MMT and vs. 5.645 MMT in 2012.

 

VFA said Vietnam exported 620,532 tons of rice in August (expecting 700K tons) up 7.7% from a month ago.

 

VFA said Vietnam exported 4.68 MMT of rice between Jan-August

 

1 corn receipt canceled on Friday out of Cargill Spring Valley IL

 

Dec bean oil 50 day moving average is 4410

 

Midwest weather – Saturday mostly dry, Sunday some rains in northern MO, southern IL, southern IN , Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Some rains are  in the forecast for Midwest mid-week .

 

Beneficial rains in Argentina winter wheat belt over the weekend

 

HGCA said dry weather has boosted the quality of Britain’s wheat crop

 

Deliveries

  • Bean oil 31 with the date at 9/03
  • Corn 4 with the date at 3/28
  • Ethanol 7 with the date at 8/29
  • Wheat 121 with the date at 8/30
  • Mini wheat 5 with the date at 6/25
  • No Minneapolis or KC wheat
  • No beans
  • No meal

 

Weekly COT supplemental report from Friday. Large spec positions as of Sept 3rd , futures and options combined

  • Wheat short 75,491
  • KC Wheat long 590
  • Corn short 134,420
  • Beans long 119,840
  • Meal long 46,338
  • Bean oil short 32,081

 

Open interest as of Friday’s close

  • CU 10,381 open, down 1,195
  • CZ 708,374 open, down 5,767
  • Total corn 1,071,263 open, down 4,035
  • SU 1,177 open, down 623
  • SX 365,004 open, up 457
  • Total beans 611,417 open, up 2,372
  • SMU 1,537 open, down 642
  • SMZ 160,043 open, down 782
  • Total meal 267,322 open, up 255
  • BOU 656 open, down 268
  • BOZ 157,968 open, up 369
  • Total bean oil 284,565 open, up 2,009
  • WU 469 open, down 175
  • WZ 253,825 open, down 1,707
  • Total wheat 357,741 open, down 1,829
  • KC WU 549 open, down 241
  • KC WZ 97,658 open, up 1,016
  • Total KC wheat 141,677 open, up 2,124

 

Upcoming Reports/events

  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out today at 10 am CDT
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CDT . Expecting corn good to excellent ratings to fall 1-2% from a week ago and expecting bean good to excellent ratings to fall 3-5% from a week ago
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board Aug data report comes out tomorrow. Estimates from Reuters –
    • August palm oil output average estimate 1.76 MMT vs. 1.67 MMT in July
    • August palm oil exports average estimate 1.53 MMT vs. 1.42 MMT in July
    • August palm oil stocks at 1.73 MMT vs. 1.66 MMT in July
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimated Sept 1-10th Malaysia palm oil exports tomorrow
  • ABARES Australian crop report comes out tomorrow.
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CDT
  • USDA crop production report comes out on Thursday. – I will put out estimates for the report today
  • LTD for Sept futures is Sept 13th . Futures expire at noon CDT
  • FSA acreage certification update comes out on Sept 17th

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg