News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

Everyone has a plan ’til they get punched in the mouth.

Mike Tyson

 

I am running a little behind today, I will send additional news shortly. I apologize for the inconvenience.

 

Overnight closes

  • SX down 13 ¾ at 1338 ¾
  • CZ down 5 ¼ at 464 ¼
  • WZ down 3 ½ at 642 ¾
  • KC WZ down 1 ¼ at 696 ¾
  • SMZ down 5.20 at 417.50
  • BOZ down 19 at 4374
  • RRX up .50 at 1569

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 27,670
  • CZ 13,359
  • WZ 4,184
  • KC WZ 1,033
  • SMZ 8,382
  • BOZ 8,642
  • RRX 37

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 10-15 lower
  • Corn 4-6 lower
  • Wheat 3-5 lower
  • KC wheat 1-2 lower
  • Meal 5-6 lower
  • Bean oil 15-25 lower
  • Rice steady better

 

Crude, dollar, and silver higher. Gold and stock market lower.

 

Nikkei up .078%

Hang Seng up 1.217%

Shanghai Index down .242%

 

G20 2 day summit began today in Russia

 

Weekly US jobless claims report came out this morning at  – 9K to 323K expecting 330K

 

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday

  • Crude a draw of 4.2 MB expecting a draw of 1.3 MB
  • Gas a draw of 387,000 expecting a draw of 300,000
  • Distillates a draw of 109,000 expecting a build of 600,000

 

Palm oil up 12.

 

China grain market – beans up 10, meal down 8, bean oil down 2, corn down 4, palm oil up 4, rapeseed unchanged, rapeseed meal down 22, rapeseed oil down 32.

 

China sold 417,448 tons of beans at today’s auction , 82.95% of total offered

 

Hearing China bought 2 or more cargoes of Argentine soybeans for Sept-Oct shipment Tuesday night or yesterday

 

TALK continues China may release 2-3 MMT of beans from reserves in December

 

TALK China continues to buy South American beans for Dec-Jan shipment

 

Malaysia seeks 120K tons of optional origin corn for Nov-Dec shipment

 

Reuters poll of 20 analysts estimated 2013 US corn yield at 153.985 BPA , range of estimates were 151.0-159.0 BPA and vs. USDA Aug estimate of 154.4 BPA. (this is not the official estimates for next week’s USDA report)

 

Reuters poll of 20 analysts estimated US 2013 bean yield at 41.09 BPA , range of estimates were 39.0-42.3. vs. USDA Aug estimate of 42.6 BPA (this is not the official estimates for next week’s USDA report)

 

Solvent Extractors Association of India – India’s Aug exports

  • Meal at 183,555 tons vs. 107,038 tons in July
  • Rapeseed meal 90,735 tons vs. 40,902 in July
  • Total oilmeal exports at 307,733 tons vs. 125,780 tons a year ago
  • ‘12/13 oilmeal exports at 4.8 MMT down 14.3% from a year ago

 

Canadian canola harvest is 10-15% complete .

 

Good harvest weather in Canada.

 

Deliveries

  • No Minneapolis wheat
  • No beans
  • No corn
  • Bean oil 5 with the date at 8/29/13
    • House Term stopped 5
  • Corn 4 with the date at 2/15/13
  • Wheat 199 with the date at 8/28/13
  • KC wheat 8 with the date at 7/15/13

 

FC Stone 2013 US corn and bean crop estimates from yesterday

  • FC Stone estimated 2013 US corn crop at 13.942 BB vs. previous estimate of 13.933 BB and vs. USDA August estimate of 13.763 BB
  • FC Stone estimated 2013 US corn yield at 156.4 BPA vs. previous estimate of 157.0 BPA and vs. USDA August estimate of 154.4 BPA
    • Iowa corn yield estimated at 161.0 BPA vs. previous estimate of 164.0 BPA
    • Illinois corn yield estimated at 172.0 BPA vs. previous estimate of 175.0 BPA
  • FC Stone estimated 2013 US bean crop at 3.146 BB vs. previous estimate of 3.309 BB and vs. USDA August estimate of 3.255 BB
  • FC Stone estimated 2013 US bean yield at 41.2 BPA vs. previous estimate of 43.0 BPA and vs. USDA August estimate of 42.6 BPA
    • Iowa bean yield estimated at 40.0 BPA vs. previous estimate of 46.0 BPA
    • Illinois bean yield estimated at 45.0 BPA vs. previous estimate of 49.5 BPA

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CU 15,324 open, down 4,105
  • CZ 706,049 open, down 3,684
  • Total corn 1,067,628 open, down 4,104
  • SU 2,433 open, down 895
  • SX 355,992 open, up 3,500
  • Total beans 600,693 open, up 9,679
  • SMU 2,612 open, down 536
  • SMZ 157,430 open, down 3,537
  • Total meal 263,562 open, down 3,698
  • BOU 1,787 open, down 961
  • BOZ 159,307 open, up 568
  • Total bean oil 284,713 open, up 473
  • WU 942 open, down 1,031
  • WZ 255,618 open, up 1,386
  • Total wheat 359,442 open, up 1,263
  • KC WU 1,230 open, down 293
  • KC WZ 94,969 open, up 541
  • Total KC wheat 138,197 open, up 1,279

 

Upcoming Reports/events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CDT
  • Weekly DOE #s come out today at 10 am CDT expecting
    • Crude a draw of 2.0 MB
    • Gas a draw of 700K
    • Distillates a build of 600K
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out today at 10 am CDT
  • US unemployment report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT
  • Stats Canada comes out tomorrow with their July stocks report.
  • Informa will come out tomorrow at 1030 am CDT with their US crop estimate updates . Previous estimates were
    • Corn crop estimated at 14.14 BB
    • Corn yield estimated at 158.6 BPA
    • Bean crop estimated at 3.266  BB
    • Bean yield estimated at 42.7  BPA
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CDT
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board Aug data report comes out on Sept 10th
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimated Sept 1-10th Malaysia palm oil exports on Sept 10th
  • USDA crop production report comes out Sept 12th
  • LTD for Sept futures is Sept 13th
  • FSA acreage certification update comes out on Sept 17th

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg