News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war. Both bring a temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists.

– Ernest Hemingway

 

Egypt is in for wheat for October shipment. 3rd time Egypt GASC tendered for wheat in a week.

 

FC Stone comes out today at 3 pm CDT with their 2013 US crop estimates. Previous FC Stone estimates were

  • FC Stone previously estimated the 2013 US corn crop at 13.933 BB
  • FC Stone previously estimated the 2013 US corn yield at 157.0 BPA
  • FC Stone previously estimated the 2013 US bean crop at 3.309 BB
  • FC Stone previously estimated the 2013 US bean yield at 43.0 BPA

 

Overnight closes

  • SX down 11 ½ at 1375 ¼
  • CZ down 3 at 472 ¼
  • WZ down 2 ¼ at 645
  • KC WZ down 2 ¼ at 696 ¾
  • SMZ down 5.20 at 433.70
  • BOZ down 13 at 4406
  • RRX down 2.50 at 1576.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 22,753
  • CZ 15,386
  • WZ 4,750
  • KC WZ 574
  • SMZ 6,560
  • BOZ 6,372
  • RRX 10

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 10-13 lower
  • Corn 2-4 lower
  • Wheat 2-4 lower
  • KC wheat 2-4 lower
  • Meal 4.50-5.50 lower
  • Bean oil  10-20 lower
  • Rice  2-4 lower

 

Crude, gold, silver, stock market, and dollar lower.

 

Nikkei up .540%

Hang Seng down .305%

Shanghai index up .215%

 

Palm oil down 3

 

Chinese grain market closings – beans down 17, meal down 44, bean oil down 82, corn down 4, palm oil down 36, rapeseed unchanged, rapeseed meal down 16, rapeseed oil down 38 yuan

 

TALK China will release 2-3 MMT of beans from reserves into domestic market in December

 

Talk continues Brazil buying/seeking US HRW wheat.

 

Iraq seeks 30K optional origin rice

 

South Korea flour mills bought 22,500 tons of US milling wheat for Nov/Dec shipment

 

Bangladesh seeks 50K optional origin wheat for Sept-Nov shipment

 

Jordan bought 50K optional origin feed barley for June shipment

 

Syria canceled tender for 135K tons of rice

 

Cash markets were steady to sharply lower yesterday in corn and beans. Farmer selling is light .

 

Hearing Cordonnier left his 2013 US corn yield unchanged at 152.0 BPA, but said he could reduce his estimate further.

 

Hearing Cordonnier estimated 2013 US bean yield at 40.5 BPA vs. previous estimate of 41.0 BPA

 

Allendale estimated 2013 US corn yield at 153.4 BPA

 

Allendale estimated 2013 US corn crop at 13.676 BB

 

Allendale estimated 2013 US bean yield at 39.0 BPA

 

Allendale estimated 2013 US bean crop at 2.980 BB

 

Lanworth estimated ‘13/14 US corn crop at 13.330 BB vs. previous estimate of 13.406 BB

 

Lanworth estimated 2013 US corn yield at 151.6 BPA vs. previous estimate of 152.4 BPA

 

Lanworth estimated ‘13/14 US bean crop at 3.114 BB vs. previous estimate of 3.140 BB

 

Lanworth estimated 2013 US bean yield at 40.4 BPA vs. previous estimate of 40.8 BPA

 

Lanworth estimated ‘13/14 global wheat crop at 701.84 MMT up 3.0 M from previous estimate

 

China attaché estimated China’s ‘13/14 bean crop at 12.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

China’s attaché estimated China’s ‘13/14 rapeseed crop at 13.2 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

Market expecting Brazil to have a record bean crop in ‘13/14

 

Brazil’s Ag Min expects China to approve corn imports from Brazil in ‘13/14

 

Ukraine’s Ukrlandfarming said they expect to export 500-700K tons of corn to China in ‘13/14

 

CBH estimated Western Australia’s ‘13/14 grain crop at 10-10.6 MMT vs. previous estimate of 9.0 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 crop of 10.9 MMT

 

Rice Exporters Association said Thailand exported 675,064 tons of rice in July up 35% from a year ago (9 month high)

 

Dec bean oil 50 day moving average is 4421

 

200 new wheat receipts registered yesterday afternoon out of ADM Toledo OH

 

9 bean oil receipts canceled yesterday afternoon out of Cargill Ackley IA

 

Midwest weather dry with some light showers in forecast into the weekend. 6-10 day wetter, 11-15 wetter

 

Deliveries

  • Minneapolis wheat 0
  • Bean oil 376 with the date at 8/29/13
    • House Term stopped 188
    • House ADM stopped 72
    • House Deutsche Bank issued 190
  • Corn 4 with the date at 11/15/12
  • Wheat 200 with the date at 7/01/13
    • CHS Hedging stopped 6
    • ABN customer issued 200
  • KC Wheat 8 with the date at 7/09/13
  • No beans
  • No meal

 

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday

 

Corn

  • Condition 56% good to excellent down 3% from a week ago (expecting 3-5% lower) and vs. 22% a year ago
    • IL down 2%
    • WI down 6%
    • IA down 5%
    • NE down 2%
    • MO down 6%
    • IN down 6%
    • SD down 7%
    • KS down 1%
    • MN down 3%
    • OH down 2%
    • ND down 6%
  • Doughing 84% vs. 70% a week ago and vs. 89% 5 year average
  • Dented 42% vs. 23% a week ago and vs. 61% 5 year average
  • Mature 4% vs. 38% a year ago and vs. 17% 5 year average

 

Corn harvest by state

  • LA 89% harvested vs. 87% average
  • AL 6% harvested vs. 28% average
  • AR 24% harvested vs. 51% average
  • MS 34% harvested vs. 64% average
  • TN 2% harvested vs. 20% average
  • KY 1% harvested vs. 12% average
  • GA 53% harvested vs. 65% average
  • NC 21% harvested vs. 25% average
  • MO 1% harvested vs. 13% average

 

Beans

  • Condition 54% good to excellent down 4% from a week ago (expecting down 3-5% and some analysts were saying down 5-10%) and vs. 30% a year ago
    • IL down 8%
    • WI down 8%
    • IA down 6%
    • NE down 6%
    • MO down 6%
    • IN down 5%
    • SD down 5%
    • KS down 4%
    • MN down 2%
    • OH down 2%
    • ND up 1%
  • Setting pods 92% vs. 84% a week ago and vs. 96% 5 year average

 

Bean harvest by state

  • TX 24% vs. 31% average
  • LA 7% vs. 24% average
  • AR 2% vs. 5% average

 

4% of IL soybeans have turned yellow vs. 20% average

 

IA said early beans were turning yellow

 

IN said beans were turning yellow and reports of spider mites

 

8% of MN beans turning yellow vs. 23% average

 

Spring Wheat

  • Condition 70% good to excellent up 3% from a week ago
  • Harvested 64%vs. 42% a week ago and vs. 69% 5 year average

 

Rice

  • Condition 70% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago and vs. 68% a year ago
  • Headed 95% vs. 91% a week ago and vs. 94% 5 year average
  • Harvested 18% vs. 14% a week ago and vs. 25% 5 year average

 

Cotton

  • Condition 45% good to excellent down 2% from a week ago and vs. 42% a year ago
  • Setting bolls 95%  vs. 90% a week ago and vs. 96% 5 year average
  • Bolls opening 16%  vs. 10% a week ago and vs. 29% 5 year average

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CU 19,429 open, down 5,946
  • CZ 709,871 open, up 6,623
  • Total corn 1,071,827 open, up 3,107
  • SU 3,328 open, down 1,997
  • SX 353,082 open, down 497
  • Total beans 592,055 open, up 4,193
  • SMU 3,148 open, down 932
  • SMZ 161,022 open, down 2,173
  • Total meal 267,456 open, down 525
  • BOU 2,753 open, down 1,517
  • BOZ 158,689 open, up 867
  • Total bean oil 284,216 open, up 1,191
  • WU 1,973 open, down 579
  • WZ 254,374 open, down 475
  • Total wheat 358,342 open, down 495
  • KC WU 1,518 open, down 824
  • KC WZ 94,436 open, down 1,113
  • Total KC 136,926 open, down 894

 

Upcoming Reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report will comes out today at 330 pm CDT
  • ECB rate announcement tomorrow expecting rate to be unchanged at .5%
  • ECB president speaks tomorrow
  • G20 2 day summit begins tomorrow
  • China to auction 500K tons of beans from reserves tomorrow .
  • Weekly US jobless claims comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT
  • Weekly DOE #s come out tomorrow at 10 am CDT
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 10 am CDT
  • US unemployment report comes out on Friday at 730 am CDT
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out on Friday at 730 am CDT
  • Hearing Informa will come out on Friday at 1030 am CDT with their US crop estimate updates . Previous estimates were
    • Corn crop estimated at 14.14 BB
    • Corn yield estimated at 158.6 BPA
    • Bean crop estimated at 3.266  BB
    • Bean yield estimated at 42.7  BPA
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board Aug data report comes out on Sept 10th
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimated Sept 1-10th Malaysia palm oil exports on Sept 10th
  • USDA crop production report comes out Sept 12th
  • LTD for Sept futures is Sept 13th
  • FSA acreage certification update comes out on Sept 17th

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg