News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

I trust Senator Kerry, and I think he’s genuine. And I met him five times

BASHAR AL-ASSAD

 

Overnight closes

  • SX up 46 ¼ at 1403 ¾
  • CZ up 6 ½ at 488 ½
  • WZ up 6 at 660
  • KC WZ up 4 ½ at 708
  • SMZ up the limit $20 at 443.70
  • BOZ up 37 at 4466
  • RRX up 8 at 1583

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 49,688
  • CZ 35,204
  • WZ 7,619
  • KC WZ 1,152
  • SMZ 12,664
  • BOZ 13,534
  • RRX 27

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 45-50 higher
  • Corn 6-8 higher
  • Wheat 5-7 higher
  • Meal limit
  • Bean oil 30-40 higher
  • Rice 7-9 higher

 

Crude oil lower. Gold, silver, dollar, and stock market higher.

 

Nikkei up 2.988%

Hang Seng up .989%

Shanghai Index up 1.176%

 

Final August flash PMIs from yesterday

  • China HSBC final at 51.0 (16 month high) as expected vs. July final HSBC of 47.7
  • France 49.7 unchanged from flash and unchanged from July final
  • Germany 51.8 vs. flash of 52.0 and vs. July of 50.7
  • Eurozone 51.4 vs. flash of 51.3 and vs. 50.3 in July
  • UK 57.2 expecting 55.0 and vs. July of 54.8

 

Today Chinese grain market closes – beans up 2, corn up 2, meal up 15, palm oil down 6, bean oil up 22

 

Yesterday Chinese market closes – beans up 29, meal up 72, corn up 10, palm oil up 67, and bean oil up 78

 

Palm oil down 9 today. Yesterday up 22

 

China Ag Min estimated China’s ‘13/14 bean imports at 69.0 MMT

 

USDA attaché in China said flooding in northeast China may have affected 2 MH of grains.

 

Surveyor Intertek Agri Services estimated Malaysia’s Aug palm oil exports at 1,498,755 up 6.5% from July

 

Surveyor SGS estimated Malaysia’s Aug palm oil exports at 1.49 MMT up 7.6% from a month ago

 

Over the weekend Egypt bought 355K tons of wheat for October shipment 180K tons from Russia, 55K tons from the Ukraine, and 120K tons from Romania

 

Egypt FIHC seeks 20K bean oil and 20K sunflower oil Oct shipment

 

Japan seeks 116,350 tons of milling wheat for Oct –Dec shipment Breakdown

  • 20,286 tons of US western white wheat
  • 22,513 tons of US HRW wheat
  • 25,124 tons of US dark northern spring
  • 48,427 tons of western red spring Canadian wheat

 

Abiove estimated Brazil’s ‘12/13 bean exports at 40.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 39.5 MMT

 

Abiove estimated Brazil’s ‘13/14 bean crop at 81.6 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

Abiove estimated Brazil’s ‘13/14 crushing at 35.9 MMT vs. previous estimate of 36.7 MMT

 

Abiove estimated Brazil’s ‘13/14 bean ending stocks at 2.65 MMT vs. previous estimate of 2.85 MMT

 

IGC estimated Brazil’s ‘13/14 soybean planting area at 29.0 MH (record) up 5% from ‘12/13

 

On Friday IGC estimated ‘13/14 world corn crop at 945.0 MMT vs. previous estimate at 942.0 MMT

 

On Friday IGC estimated ‘13/14 world wheat crop at 691.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 687.0 MMT

 

Argentine wheat areas need rain

 

Rains in Midwest over weekend were widespread but not enough. There is no rain in the forecast and hot weather returns this weekend.

 

Dec corn 50 day moving average is 489

 

Brazil Trade Ministry August exports

  • Beans 5.38 MMT vs. 5.66 MMT in July and vs. 2.43 MMT a year ago
  • Meal 1.26 MMT vs. 1.60 MMT in July and vs. 1.36 MMT a year ago
  • Bean oil 92,800 tons vs. 109,928 tons in July and vs. 179,500 tons a year ago
  • Corn 3.05 MMT vs. 733,000 tons in July and vs. 2.76 MMT a year ago

 

Deliveries

  • Wheat 0
  • KC Wheat 15 with the date at 7/03/13
  • Minneapolis wheat 139 with the date at 8/12/13
  • Meal 0
  • Bean oil 344 with the date at 8/28/13
    • Deutsche Bank house stopped 233
    • Customer JP Morgan issued 258
  • Beans 0
  • Corn 7 with the date at 9/7/12
    • Term house issued 7

 

Weekly COT supplemental report from Friday. Large spec positions as of Aug 27th futures and options combined

  • Wheat short 68,796
  • KC wheat long 1,007
  • Corn short 126,607
  • Beans long 100,243
  • Meal long 41,290
  • Bean oil short 34,867

 

Upcoming Reports/events

  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out today at 10 am CDT
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out today  at 3 pm CDT expecting beans and corn conditions to fall 3-5% this afternoon
  • Eurozone GDP comes out tomorrow
  • FC Stone comes out tomorrow after the close with US crop estimates .
  • Weekly API energy inventory report will come out tomorrow at 330 pm CDT
  • ECB rate announcement on Thursday expecting rate to be unchanged at .5%
  • ECB president speaks on Thursday
  • G20 2 day summit begins on Thursday
  • On Thursday DOE #s, ethanol plant production, EIA Nat Gas storage, and jobless claims come out.
  • US unemployment report comes out Friday 9/06 at 730 am CDT
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out on Friday at 730 am CDT
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board Aug data report comes out on Sept 10th
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimated Sept 1-10th Malaysia palm oil exports on Sept 10th
  • USDA crop production report comes out Sept 12th
  • LTD for Sept futures is Sept 13th
  • FSA acreage certification update comes out on Sept 17th

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg