News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

‘One cannot think well, love well, sleep well if one has not dined well.”

– Virginia Woolf

 

USDA announced 110K new crop US beans sold to China.

 

US grain markets are closed on Monday for Labor Day holiday. Markets will be opened Monday night at 7 pm CDT.

 

Today is month end.

 

Today is first notice day for Sept futures. Deliveries overnight were

  • Beans 0, as expected
  • Meal 0, as expected
  • Corn 0, as expected
  • Bean oil 651 with the date at 8/26/13, expecting 1,000-3,000
    • Tenco customer issued 185
    • JP Morgan customer stopped 258
  • Wheat 0, expecting 100-1,000
  • Minneapolis wheat 106 with the date at 7/18/13 , expecting 0-250
    • Term issued 106
    • ADM house stopped 13
  • KC wheat 19 with the date at 6/27/13, expecting up to 800.

 

Overnight closes

  • SX down 11 ½ at 1357
  • CZ down 2 at 479 ½
  • WZ unchanged at 654 ¼
  • KC WZ up ¾ at 704
  • SMZ down 4.10 at 426.00
  • BOZ down 24 at 4396
  • RRX up 1 at 1574

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 23,735
  • CZ 11,874
  • WZ 5,395
  • KC WZ 402
  • SMZ 5,072
  • BOZ 7,256
  • RRX 17

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 10-13 lower
  • Corn 1-3 lower
  • Wheat steady mixed
  • KC wheat  steady better
  • Meal 3.50-4.50 lower
  • Bean oil 20-30 lower
  • Rice steady better

 

Crude, gold, and silver lower. Dollar and stock market higher.

 

Nikkei down .526%

Hang Seng up .123%

Shanghai Index up .047%

 

Concerns over military action in Syria

 

Eurozone unemployment feel in July for the second month.

 

Palm oil down 30

 

China grain markets – beans down 34, meal down 74, bean oil down 86, corn down 3, palm oil down 140, rapeseed down 18, rapeseed meal down 31, rapeseed oil down 54

 

China bought more South American beans yesterday
TALK continues of Brazil buying / seeking US HRW wheat.

 

Pakistan bought 92,108 tons of Russian wheat for Sept/Oct shipment – 1st time in 3 years

 

Japan bought 43,582 tons of feed wheat via SBS tender for Nov shipment from Canada, Australia, and France

 

This week

  • Thailand bought 200,000 tons of South American meal for Nov / Feb shipment
  • Thailand bought 100,000 US wheat for Nov/Dec shipment
  • Malaysia bought 40K tons of Canadian wheat for Nov/Dec shipment

 

Asian wheat buyers wheat needs are covered through December

 

Asian wheat buyers seeking wheat for Jan/March shipment

 

Jordan seeks 100K optional origin feed barley for May-June shipment

 

Commodities Weather Group (CWG) estimated US 2013 corn yield at 158.1 BPA vs. previous estimate of 159.5 BPA and vs. USDA estimate of 154.4 BPA

 

CWG estimated Iowa’s corn yield at 160.3 BPA vs. previous estimate of 170.8 BPA

 

CWG estimated Illinois corn yield at 171.6 BPA vs. previous estimate of 174.9 BPA

 

Rabobank estimated second quarter CBOT corn prices at $4.60

 

Rabobank estimated second quarter CBOT bean prices at $12.50

 

Rabobank estimated second quarter CBOT wheat prices at $6.05

 

Macquarie estimated US 2013 bean yield at 41.4 BPA vs. previous estimate of 42.2 BPA and vs. USDA estimate of 42.6 BPA

 

Macquarie estimated US 2013 corn yield at 155.5 BPA vs. previous estimate of 158.0 BPA

 

Morgan Stanley estimated 2013 US corn yield at 155.5 BPA

 

Morgan Stanley estimated 2013 US bean yield at 42.1 BPA

 

Report on Reuters – Australia farmers has only sold 2.5-3.0 MMT of ‘13/14 wheat vs. average of 5-6 MMT . China has bought 1.5 MMT of Australia for early 2014 shipment and China is seeking 150,000 tons of Australian wheat . Weather damage is being seen in eastern Australia.

 

German Ag Min estimated 2013 wheat crop at 24.9 MMT up 11% from a year ago

 

German Ag Min estimated 2013 winter rapeseed crop at 5.78 MMT vs. 4.8 MMT in 2012

 

German Ag Min estimated 2013 total grain crop at 47.1 MMT up 3.8% from a year ago

 

German Ag Min estimated 2013 corn crop at 3.99 MMT down 27.6% from a year ago

 

German Ag Min said German wheat harvest is almost complete

 

Russia’s Ag Min said 14% of their ‘14/15 winter grain planting is complete on 2.2 MH

 

Russia’s Ag Min said as of 8/29 Russia has harvested 59.9 MMT of grain on 24.7 MH (53.5% of total area) with an average yield of 2.43 TPH . A year ago Russia harvested 53.8 MMT of gran on 3.3 MH with an average yield of 1.92TPH

 

Kazakhstan Ag Min said as of 8/29 they have harvested 2.076 MMT of grain on 1.594 MH (10.1% of total area) with an average yield of 1.3 TPH . A year ago Kazakhstan harvested 4.547 MMT of grain with an average yield of .72 TPH

 

India’s Ag Min said as of 8/30 soybean planting is done on 12.2 MH vs. 10.7 MH a year ago

 

Purdue extension specialists said hot dry weather in Indian is damaging corn and bean crops.  USDA estimated Indiana’s corn crop at 979.4 MB and Bob Nielsen said corn crop could be 10% lower than USDA estimate .

 

More favorable Midwest weather returns to forecast for weekend – next week

 

100 bean oil receipts were canceled yesterday out of Cargill Ackley IA

 

31 new KC wheat receipts registered yesterday afternoon out of ADM and Gavilon

 

I am going out of town for the weekend with my family – I will not be putting out an afternoon recap – Hope everyone has a nice three day weekend – Kate

 

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange weekly report

  • Argentina ‘13/14 wheat area estimated at 3.9 MH unchanged from previous estimate
  • Said southern wheat crops are in good condition and far northern area wheat crops are in poor to fair condition
  • Said ‘12/13 corn harvest is complete on 3.678 MH
  • Estimated Argentina’s ‘12/13 corn crop at 24.8 MMT unchanged from previous
  • Said Argentina’s ‘13/14 corn planting has begun
  • Estimated Argentina’s ‘13/14 corn area at 3.56 MH
  • Argentine sunflower planting is 12.2% complete vs. 11.7% a week ago and vs. 14.2% a year ago
  • Estimated Argentina sunflower planting area at 1.9 MH

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CU 36,193 open, down 17,560
  • CZ 700,223 open, up 4,788
  • Total corn 1,071,405 open, down 6,974
  • SU 6,432 open, down 3,736
  • SX 348,411 open, down 1,156
  • Total beans 579,943 open, down 1,861
  • SMU 6,597 open, down 4,554
  • SMZ 165,405 open, up 1,569
  • Total meal 271,728 open, down 2,331
  • BOU 6,378 open, down 4,699
  • BOZ 158,236 open, down 2,363
  • Total bean oil 285,574 open, down 6,683
  • WU 4,663 open, down 7,157
  • WZ 255,333 open, up 2,272
  • Total wheat 360,535 open, down 4,285
  • KC WU 3,274 open, down 4,143
  • KC WZ 95,806 open, up 2,315
  • Total KC wheat 137,685 open, down 705

 

Upcoming Reports/events

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CDT
  • See attachment for Labor Day trading schedule
  • Intertek Agri Services will estimate Malaysia’s Aug palm oil exports on Saturday
  • SGS will estimate Malaysia’s Aug palm oil exports on Monday
  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out on Tuesday at 10 am CDT
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Tuesday at 3 pm CDT
  • Weekly API energy inventory report will come out on Wednesday at 330 pm CDT
  • US unemployment report comes out Friday 9/06 at 730 am CDT
  • USDA crop production report comes out Sept 12th
  • LTD for Sept futures is Sept 13th
  • FSA acreage certification update comes out on Sept 17th

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg