News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

I grew up with six brothers. That’s how I learned to dance – waiting for the bathroom.
– Bob Hope

 

Today is Position Day for September futures. Traders should be out of long positions before the close today or risk delivery. Early Expectations for deliveries tonight are

  • Beans 0-50 , 0 receipts are registered
  • Meal 0 , 0 receipts are registered
  • Bean oil 1,000-3,000, 8,657 receipts are registered
  • Corn 0-7, 7 receipts are registered
  • Wheat 100-500, 256 receipts are registered

 

Overnight closes

  • SX down 5 ½ at 1367 ¼
  • CZ down 1 ¼ at 479 ½
  • WZ down 2 ½ at 657
  • KC WZ down 2 at 708 ¼
  • SMZ down .50 at 428.80
  • BOZ down 43 at 4435
  • RRX down 3 at 1568

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 19,297
  • CZ 13,053
  • WZ 6,304
  • KC WZ 1,010
  • SMZ 6,200
  • BOZ 15,377
  • RRX 22

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 4-6 lower
  • Corn 1-2 lower
  • Wheat 2-4 lower
  • KC Wheat 1-3 lower
  • Meal steady – 1.00 lower
  • Bean oil 35-45 lower
  • Rice 2-4 lower

 

Dollar and stock market higher. Gold, silver, and crude oil lower.

 

Nikkei up .909%

Hang Seng up .837%

Shanghai Index down .190%

 

US 2nd quarter GDP came out this morning at +2.5%  expecting +2.2%

 

Weekly US jobless claims report came out this morning at -6K to 331K as expecting

 

Palm oil down 44.

 

Chinese grain markets closes – soybeans down 9, soymeal down 34, corn down 12, bean oil down 124, palm oil down 140, rapeseed up 26, rapeseed meal down 56, and rapeseed oil down 102.

 

China sold 79.3% of their beans at today’s auction. They offered 496,000 tons

 

Grain.gov.cn said China soybean stocks are at 6.3MMT ( highest this year)

 

Grain.gov.cn said more than 1.4 MMT of beans were crushed in China last week

 

TALK from yesterday – Brazil seeking or buying US hard red winter wheat.

 

Hearing China bought another 10 cargoes of Brazilian new crop beans Tuesday night for Feb- March shipment

 

Hearing China bought 2 Argentine bean cargoes yesterday – Hearing China bought 4 Argentine bean cargoes this week for May shipment

 

TALK China has bought 50-150 cargoes of new crop South American beans for Feb-May shipment over the last few weeks

 

Hearing Brazil has sold 30% of their ‘13/14 soybeans

 

South Korea DongA One Co. bought 30,500 tons of US wheat (soft white, HRW, and dark northern spring) for Nov/Dec shipment

 

South Korea Daehan Flour Mills bought 27,100 tons of US wheat (soft white, HRW, and dark northern spring) for Nov/Dec shipment

 

South Korea Daehan bought 25,800 tons of Canadian wheat for Nov-Dec shipment

 

Taiwan MIPA bought 60K Brazilian corn for Nov shipment

 

Egypt Meditrade bought 24,000 bean oil for Sept/Oct shipment

 

Israel bought 25,000 corn, 12,000 feed wheat, and 12,000 feed barley optional  origin (possibly Black Sea region – Ukraine) for Sept – Dec shipment.

 

China’s National Bureau of Statistics said China’s 2013 early rice crop is 34.07 MMT up 2.4% from 2012.

 

SovEcon estimated Russia’s 2013 wheat crop at 51.7 MMT vs. previous estimate of 50.5 MMT

 

SovEcon estimated Russia’s ‘12/13 wheat exportable surplus at 14.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

SovEcon expects Russia wheat supply to remain tight in ‘13/14

 

England’s farm ministry said farm June ending stocks were at 3.5 MMT up 23% from a year ago and wheat port June ending stocks were at 820,000 tons up 21% from a year ago

 

Today is the second day of Argentine crushers strike in Rosario. Strike is expected to end today.

 

134 bean oil receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon . 127 out of Cargill, Ackley IA and 7 out of Cargill Buffalo IA.

 

Dec KC wheat 50 day moving average is 714 ½

 

Dec bean oil 50 day moving average is 4437

 

Rains in forecast over the weekend for central and eastern Midwest 50% coverage (yesterday the forecast was for 65% coverage) .

 

6-10 day Midwest forecast drier

 

11-15 day Midwest forecast drier

 

Weekly US export sales report

  • Wheat –   ‘13/14 551,300 (expecting 350-575K)
  • Corn – ‘12/13 – 15K ‘13/14 673,800 (expecting 200-500K)
  • Beans –  ‘12/13 – 3,200 ‘13/14 868,700 (expecting 500-800K)
  • Meal –  ‘12/13 47,900 ’13/14 162,100 (expecting 35-100K)
  • Bean oil –  ‘12/13 6,700 ‘13/14 17,900 (expecting 0-20K)
  • Cotton – ‘13/14 68,800

 

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 551,300 MT for delivery in the 2013/2014 marketing year were up 12 percent from the previous week, but down 4 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Mexico (137,800 MT), Japan (131,100 MT), Brazil (88,900 MT), Indonesia (66,000 MT), Yemen (55,000 MT), and Peru (38,500 MT, including 30,000 MT switched from unknown destinations). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (38,300 MT) and the French West Indies (5,000 MT). Exports of 824,500 MT were down 5 percent from the previous week, but up 11 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (194,300 MT), Nigeria (107,800 MT), Peru (103,500 MT), Japan (98,100 MT), Mexico (90,800 MT), Brazil (61,400 MT), Guatemala (49,500 MT), and Panama (21,900 MT)
  • Corn – Net sales reductions of 15,000 MT for 2012/2013 resulted as increases for Japan (30,400 MT, including 32,300 MT switched from unknown destination and decreases of 2,000 MT), Taiwan (3,000 MT), Costa Rica (800 MT), Mexico (700 MT), and Jamaica (500 MT), were more than offset by decreases for unknown destinations (32,300 MT) and Panama (16,100 MT). Net sales of 673,800 MT for 2013/2014 were primarily for Mexico (317,600 MT), Japan (138,200 MT), and Colombia (85,600 MT). Exports of 329,300 MT were up 90 percent from the previous week and 1 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (181,500 MT), Mexico (99,100 MT), Venezuela (20,000 MT), and Taiwan (9,800 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales reductions of 3,200 MT for 2012/2013 resulted as increases for Taiwan (22,300 MT, including 3,000 MT switched from Thailand), Japan (10,500 MT, including 18,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 9,200 MT), Venezuela (6,000 MT), and Malaysia (3,800 MT), were more than offset by decreases for unknown destinations (48,000 MT) and Thailand (3,000 MT). Net sales of 868,700 MT for 2013/2014 were primarily for unknown destinations (404,700 MT), China (229,000 MT), Mexico (76,400 MT), and Taiwan (72,200 MT). Exports of 76,000 MT were down 48 percent from the previous week and 17 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (25,600 MT), Mexico (22,900 MT), Vietnam (11,200 MT), Indonesia (8,300 MT), and Taiwan (5,500 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales of 47,900 MT for 2012/2013 resulted as increases for Canada (23,100 MT), Venezuela (16,000 MT), unknown destinations (15,400 MT), the Philippines (2,000 MT), and Israel (1,200 MT), were partially offset by decreases for Mexico (10,200 MT) and Trinidad (2,200 MT). Net sales of 162,100 MT for 2013/2014 were primarily for the Philippines (84,000 MT), Turkey (40,000 MT), Mexico (29,400 MT), and Panama (14,000 MT). Exports of 63,600 MT were down 20 percent from the previous week and 46 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Israel (20,200 MT), Canada (17,000 MT), Mexico (6,700 MT), the Philippines (5,700 MT), and Honduras (5,300 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 6,700 MT for 2012/2013 were for Mozambique (4,900 MT), Nicaragua (1,200 MT), Guatemala (1,000 MT), and Canada (500 MT). Net sales of 17,900 MT for 2013/2014 were reported primarily for Norway (16,000 MT). Exports of 3,200 MT were up 11 percent from the previous week and 3 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Nicaragua (1,200 MT), Mexico (1,000 MT), and Canada (900 MT).
  • Cotton – Net Upland sales of 68,800 RB for 2013/2014 were primarily for Turkey (52,100 RB), Vietnam (14,000 RB), South Korea (7,300 RB), Peru (5,500 RB), and Thailand (5,200 RB). Decreases were reported for Japan (17,800 RB) and China (17,700 RB). Net sales of 2,200 MT for 2014/2015 were reported for Turkey. Exports of 189,200 RB were primarily to China (49,900 RB), Mexico (32,100 RB), Turkey (31,000 RB), Vietnam (23,400 RB), and Taiwan (8,800 RB). Net American Pima sales of 10,200 RB for 2013/2014 were primarily for China (6,300 RB), Turkey (1,800 RB), Pakistan (1,100 RB), and India (400 RB). Exports of 11,800 RB were primarily to China (7,700 RB), India (2,000 RB), Pakistan (900 RB), and Japan (600 RB).

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CU 54,439 open, down 14,636
  • CZ 695,264 open, up 2,343
  • Total corn 1,078,858 open, down 11,356
  • SU 10,171 open, down 3,061
  • SX 350,011 open, up 8,133
  • Total soybeans 583,149 open, up 11,526
  • SMU 11,168 open, down 3,743
  • SMZ 163,931 open, up 2,230
  • Total meal 274,249 open, down 198
  • BOU 11,087 open, down 4,290
  • BOZ 161,336 open, up 5470
  • Total bean oil 293,036 open, down 761
  • WU 11,907 open, down 6,481
  • WZ 253,096 open, up 808
  • Total wheat 364,988 open, down 4,455
  • KC WU 7,481 open, down 2,563
  • KC WZ 93,486 open, up 2,148
  • Total KC wheat 138,450 open, down 218

 

Upcoming Reports/events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CDT expecting +62 B
  • FND for Sept futures is tomorrow
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CDT
  • See attachment for Labor Day trading schedule
  • USDA crop production report comes out Sept 12th
  • LTD for Sept futures is Sept 13th
  • FSA acreage certification update comes out on Sept 17th

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg