News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

You see things; and you say, “Why?” But I dream things that never were; and I say, “Why not?”

– George Bernard Shaw

 

USDA announced 120K new crop US beans sold to China

 

USDA announced 119K tons of US wheat sold to unknown

 

Egypt GASC is in for wheat for October shipment. Should have results by 10 am CDT today.

 

Overnight closes

  • SX down 4 ¾ at 1365 ¾
  • CZ down 3 ½ at 482 ¾
  • WZ down 3 ½ at 660 ¼
  • KC WZ up a ¼ at 711 ¼
  • SMZ down 1.80 at 428.60
  • BOZ down 3 at 4449
  • RRX up 3 at 1576.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 28,570
  • CZ 18,026
  • WZ 8,546
  • KC WZ 1,402
  • SMZ 7,067
  • BOZ 11,162
  • RRX 34

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 3-5 lower
  • Corn 3-5 lower
  • Wheat 3-5 lower
  • KC wheat steady mixed
  • Meal 1-2 lower
  • Bean oil  steady – 10 lower
  • Rice 2-4 higher

 

Gold, silver, crude oil , and dollar and stock market higher.

 

Nikkei down 1.506%

Hang Seng down 1.601%

Shanghai Index down .096%

Most world stock markets lower

 

Loans to Eurozone businesses fell further in July. Concerns about Eurozone economy.

 

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday

  • Crude build of 2.5 MB expecting a build of 200,000
  • Gas a draw of 1.1 MB expecting a draw of 1.2 MB
  • Distillates a build of 3,000 expecting a build of 675,000

 

Palm oil up 25-2 month high

 

Chinese grain markets – beans down 23, meal up 18, bean oil up 6, corn down 6, palm oil down 24, rapeseed down 21, rapeseed meal down 14, rapeseed oil down 24

 

Hearing China has bought 4 cargoes of new crop Argentine soybeans this week

 

South Korea Nofi bought 60K optional origin corn for Feb shipment

 

Pakistan bought 45K Black Sea area rapeseed possibly from the Ukraine for Sept shipment

 

South Korea flour mills have bought 3 cargoes of corn for Feb shipment they are seeking 9 more cargoes for Feb shipment

 

Asian grain buyers are seeking 200K optional origin corn for Dec shipment

 

Egypt Meditrade seeks 20K bean oil for Sept/Oct shipment

 

Japan seeks 120K feed wheat and 200K feed barley via SBS tender for Nov/Dec shipment

 

Yigu Information Consulting LTD estimated China’s ‘13/14 corn crop at 179.0 MMT down 2.7% from their previous estimate due to heavy rains

 

Oil World estimated South America’s ‘13/14 soybean production at 152.7 MMT (record) up 4.6% from ‘12/13

 

Oil World estimated Brazil’s 2014 bean crop at 84.0 MMT up 2.9% from a year ago

 

Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine has exported 3.23 MMT of grain between July 1 – Aug 27 up 16.2% from a year ago including 1.5 MMT of wheat, 1.15 MMT of barley , and 560,000 tons of corn.

 

Toepfer estimated Germany’s 2013 wheat crop at 24.18 MMT vs. previous estimate of 24.24 MMT and vs. 2012 wheat crop of 22.3 MMT

 

Toepfer estimated Germany’s 2013 rapeseed crop at 5.83 MMT vs. previous estimate of 6.04 MMT and vs. 2012 rapeseed crop of 4.82 MMT

 

Midwest forecast is hot and dry this week . Some scattered thunder storms are in the forecast for IN, IA, NE, and IL this weekend but rains may not be enough

 

100 bean oil receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon

  • 50 out of ADM Des Moines IA
  • 50 out of Ag Processing , Sergeant Bluff IA

 

33 rice receipts canceled yesterday afternoon

 

Effective after the close today CME will raise margins on corn, beans, meal, and bean oil .

 

50 day moving averages

  • CZ 493 ½
  • KC WZ 715
  • BOZ 4444

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CU 71,014 open, down 19,118
  • CZ 689,754 open, down 5,068
  • Total corn 1,089,056 open, down 23,334
  • SU 13,285 down 2,775
  • SX 341,796 open, down 2,401
  • Total beans 572,192 open, up 5,562
  • SMU 14,976 open, down 3,030
  • SMZ 160,988 open, up 99
  • Total meal 273,793 open, down 1,000
  • BOU 16,296 open, down 4,458
  • BOZ 160,226 open, down 3,346
  • Total bean oil 293,968 open, down 806
  • WU 19,485 open, down 9,434
  • WZ 252,554 open, up 2,745
  • Total wheat 370,893 open, down 5,889
  • KC WU 10,272 open, down 4,713
  • KC WZ 91,573 open, up 1,406
  • Total KC wheat 139,270 open, down 2,703

 

Upcoming Reports/events

  • Weekly DOE #s come out today at 930 am CDT expecting
    • Crude a build of 1.75 MB
    • Gas a draw of 2.0 MB
    • Distillates a draw of 250,000
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out today at 930 am CDT
  • China to auction 500K tons of beans from reserves tomorrow
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT
  • 2nd quarter US GDP comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT
  • Position day for Sept futures is tomorrow. Traders should be out of long positions or risk delivery . Early expectations for deliveries are
    • Beans 0-50 , 0 receipts are registered
    • Meal 0 , 0 receipts are registered
    • Bean oil 1K-2K, 8,791 receipts are registered
    • Corn 0-7, 7 receipts are registered
    • Wheat 0-300, 256 receipts are registered
  • FND for Sept futures is Friday
  • See attachment for Labor Day trading schedule
  • USDA crop production report comes out Sept 12th
  • FSA acreage certification update comes out on Sept 17th

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg