News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

“Technology breaks,”

Tom Sosnoff founder of Thinkorswim

 

Meal limits are back to normal today $20.00

 

Overnight closes

  • SX down 2 ½ at 1387
  • CZ down 1 ½ at 499
  • WZ up a ½ at 667 ¼
  • KC WZ up 3 at 716 ¼
  • SMZ down 1.40 at 435.30
  • BOZ unchanged at 4488
  • RRX down 2 at 1587

 

Overnight trading ranges

  • SX 1382 ½ -1395
  • CZ 495 ¼-504 ¼
  • WZ 662 ½-670 ¼
  • KC WZ 710 ¾ -717
  • SMZ 434.20-440.00
  • BOZ 4449-4517
  • RRX 1586.50-1595

 

Overnight volume  

  • SX 21,393
  • CZ 20.202
  • WZ 10,517
  • KC WZ 910
  • SMZ 7,565
  • BOZ 13,841
  • RRX 111

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 1-3 lower
  • Corn 1-3 lower
  • Wheat steady better
  • KC wheat 2-4 higher
  • Meal 1-2 lower
  • Bean oil  steady mixed
  • Rice 1-3 lower

 

Gold, silver, crude oil, and dollar higher. Stock market lower.

 

Nikkei down .689%

Hang Seng down .593%

Shanghai Index up .345%

 

Palm oil up 18

 

China grain markets – beans down 24, corn unchanged, meal up 92, palm oil up 90, bean oil up 78

 

South Korea Nofi seeks 40-70K optional origin corn for Feb shipment.

 

Analysts said South Korea flour mills are seeking 600K tons of optional origin corn for Feb shipment

 

Analysts said South Korea corn needs are covered for January.

 

Taiwan MFIG seeks 60K tons of US, Brazil, Argentina, or South Africa corn for Nov shipment

 

Japan seeks 51K food wheat via SBS tender for Nov shipment

 

Tunisia seeks 84K soft milling wheat and 75K feed barley optional origin for Sept/Nov shipment

 

Citi Group estimated 2013 US corn crop at 13.783 BB vs. USDA estimate of 13.763 BB

 

Citi Group estimated 2013 US corn yield at mid to upper 150s vs. USDA estimate of 154.4 BPA

 

Citi Group said soybean prices may fall to $12 during harvest.

 

Citi Group said corn prices may trade between $4.50 -$5.25 over the next year.

 

Indonesia’s trade minister wanted Indonesia to scrap soybean import taxes , but other ministers did not agree.

 

Analysts said Indonesia bean stocks are at dangerously low levels and may fall further

 

Indonesia 2013 soybean imports estimated at 1.8 MMT mostly from the US

 

Indonesia 2013 soybean consumption estimated at 2.5 MMT vs. 1.9 MMT in 2012

 

Brazilian contact said Brazil has shipped 3.17 MMT of beans between Aug 1-26th

 

Brazilian contact said Brazil has shipped 2.74 MMT of corn between Aug 1-26th

 

Brazilian contact said Brazil has shipped 1.09 MMT of meal and pellets between Aug 1-26th

 

Brazilian contact said Brazil has shipped 135,000 tons of edible oils between Aug 1-26th

 

Russia Ag Min said as of Aug 26 Russia had harvested 57.9 MMT of grain on 23.5 MH with an average yield of 2.47 TPH. A year ago Russia had harvested 53.0 MMT of grain on 27.5 MH with an average yield of 1.93 TPH

 

Kazakhstan Ag Min said As of 8/27/13 Kazakhstan has harvested 1.922 MMT of grain on 1.421 MH with an average yield of 1.35 TPH .  A year ago Kazakhstan had harvested 3.675 MMT of grain with an average yield of .78 TPH. Harvest was delayed this year due to rains.

 

Kazakhstan Ag Min estimated 2013 grain crop at 15.0 MMT vs. 12.8 MMT a year ago

 

Midwest weather warm/hot and dry next 10-14 days. There are some rains around tonight and Friday

 

Soybean yields in India’s top bean producing state are expected to fall due to heavy rains

 

Argentine weather forecasters said frost in Argentina over the weekend and yesterday should not affect ‘13/14 wheat crop , because it is too early for plants to be vulnerable

 

84 bean oil receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon . 42 out of Ag Processing Sergeant Bluff IA and 42 out of Ag Processing Sheldon IA

 

Dec corn 50 day moving average is 495 ¼

 

Dec KC wheat 50 day moving average is 715 ½

 

Dec bean oil 50 day moving average is 4450

 

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday

 

Corn

  • Condition 59% good to excellent down 2% from a week ago (expecting down 2-3%) and vs. 22% a year ago
    • IL down 5%
    • IA down 4%
    • IN down 4%
    • MN down 4%
    • MI down 7%
    • ND down 10%
    • SD down 2%
    • MO down 2%
    • WI down 3%
    • PA up 5%
    • LA down 4%
    • MS up 4%
  • Doughing 70% vs. 52% a week ago and vs. 79% 5 year average
  • Dented 23% vs. 11% a week ago and vs. 45% 5 year average

 

Corn harvest by state

  • TX 52% complete vs. 47% a week ago and vs. 54% average
  • LA 63% complete vs. 39% a week ago and vs. 76% average
  • MS 14% vs. 6% a week ago and vs. 42% average
  • AR 13% vs. 5% a week ago and vs. 35% average
  • GA 31% vs. 24% a week ago and vs. 50% average
  • AL 2% vs. 0% a week ago and vs. 18% average

 

Beans

  • Condition 58% good to excellent down 4% from a week ago (expecting down 2-3%) and vs. 30% a year ago
    • IL down 5%
    • IA down 2%
    • IN down 7%
    • MN down 5%
    • MI down 11%
    • ND down 10%
    • SD down 5%
    • MO down 4%
    • WI down 2%
    • LA up 5%
    • MS up 2%
  • Blooming 96% vs. 92% a week ago and vs. 98% 5 year average
  • Setting pods 84% vs. 72% a week ago and vs. 90% 5 year average

 

Spring wheat

  • Condition 67% good to excellent up 1% from a week ago
  • Harvested 42% vs. 18% a week ago and vs. 54% 5 year average

 

Rice

  • Condition 70% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago and vs. 68% a year ago
  • Headed 91% vs. 83% a week ago and vs. 88% 5 year average
  • Harvested 14% vs. 10% a week ago and vs. 17% 5 year average

 

Cotton

  • Condition 47% good to excellent up 1% from a week ago and vs. 43% a year ago
  • Setting bolls 90% vs. 85% a week ago and vs. 93% 5 year average
  • Bolls opening 10% vs. 8% a week ago and vs. 20% 5 year average

 

 

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CU 92,388 open, down 6,712
  • CZ 695,790 open, down 2,732
  • Total corn 1,115,647 open, down 5,231
  • SU 17,962 open, down 3,697
  • SX 344,808 open, up 565
  • Total beans 569,752 open, down 873
  • SMU 18,272 open, down 3,219
  • SMZ 160,964 open, down 4,622
  • Total meal 275,297 open, down 4,539
  • BOU 20,968 open, down 2,459
  • BOZ 163,921 open, down 1,086
  • Total bean oil 295,404 open, up 770
  • WU 29,754 open, down 9,813
  • WZ 250,293 open, up 898
  • Total wheat 378,379 open, down 9,121
  • KC WU 15,269 open, down 196
  • KC WZ 90,358 open, up 1,835
  • Total KC wheat 142,448 open, up 2,156

 

Upcoming Reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CDT
  • Weekly DOE #s come out tomorrow at 930 am CDT expecting
    • Crude a build of 1.75 MB
    • Gas a draw of 2.0 MB
    • Distillates a draw of 250,000
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT
  • 2nd quarter US GDP comes out on Thursday at 730 am CDT
  • Position day for Sept futures is Thursday Aug 29th . Traders should be out of long positions or risk delivery
  • FND for Sept futures Aug 30th
  • See attachment for Labor Day trading schedule
  • USDA crop production report comes out Sept 12th
  • FSA acreage certification update comes out on Sept 17th

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg