News From The Grain Floor

Correction – corn limits are 40 cents not 30 cents –

 

 

Good morning

 

“I unfortunately still crave chicken McNuggets and bacon, which is the meat candy of the world.”

Katy Perry

 

Meal limits are expanded today to $30. September meal closed limit bid on Friday.

 

Overnight closes

  • SX up 60 ¾ at 1388 ¾
  • CZ up 20 at 490
  • WZ up 12 ¾ at 658 ¾
  • KC WZ up 10 ½ at 707 ¾
  • SMZ up 20.50 at 440.00
  • BOZ up 138 at 4438
  • RRX up 11 at 1569

 

Overnight ranges

  • SX 1348 – 1389 ¼
  • CZ 479-492
  • WZ 651 ¼ -660
  • KC WZ 701 ¾ -710
  • SMZ 427.00-440.00
  • BOZ 4305-4473
  • RRX 1549.50-1571.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 63,916
  • CZ 66,642
  • WZ 11,736
  • KC WZ 1,269
  • SMZ 15,740
  • BOZ 26,239
  • RRX 42

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 50-70 higher (limits are .70 cents)
  • Corn 18-22 higher (limits are .40 cents)
  • Wheat 10-15 higher (limits are .60 cents)
  • KC wheat 10-15 higher (limits are .60 cents)
  • Meal 19-22 higher (limits are $30 today)
  • Bean oil 100-150 higher (limits are 250 tics)
  • Rice 10-15 higher

 

Crude oil, stock market, and gold lower. Dollar and silver higher

 

Nikkei down .179%

Hang Seng up .649%

Shanghai Index up 1.901%

 

UK markets are closed for holiday today.

 

Palm oil up 66.

 

Chinese grain markets – beans up 138, meal up 135, bean oil up 236, corn up 14, palm oil up 194, rapeseed up 70, rapeseed meal up 93, rapeseed oil unchanged.

 

Surveyor SGS estimated Malaysia’s Aug 1-25th palm oil exports at 1.14 MMT up 7.5% from a month ago

 

Surveyor Intertek Agri Services estimated Malaysia’s Aug 1-25th palm oil exports at 1.16 MMT up 6.4% from a month ago

 

Hearing China bought 3 Brazilian bean cargoes on Friday for March and May shipment . Last week China bought up to a 38 bean cargoes from South America

 

China bought 63K tons of French soft wheat for Aug-Oct shipment . First time China bought French wheat in 9 years

 

Saudi Arabia bought 720K tons of hard wheat from EU, North America, South America, and Australia for Nov Dec shipment

 

South Korea NOFI bought 6,500 palm kernel meal for Nov shipment

 

South Korea NOFI cancels tender for 60K optional origin wheat for December shipment due to high prices.

 

TALK India has sold 350-400K tons of new crop meal for Oct/Dec shipment

 

Israel seeks 110K tons of corn, 75K tons of feed wheat, and 20K tons of barley optional origin for Sept-Jan shipment

 

Japan customs data showed 42% of corn was used in animal feed in June unchanged from a month ago and vs. 43.3% a year ago

 

Japan customs data showed Japan imported 997,627 tons of corn in June down 12% from a year ago , including 56.8% from the US vs. 78.6% a year ago .

 

Based on a Reuters poll of 5 analysts South Africa’s 2013 corn crop is estimated at 11.22 MMT vs. 11.83 MMT in 2012

 

Russia Ag Min on Friday estimated Russia’s 2013 grain crop at 88-90 MMT vs. previous estimate of 95.0 MMT

 

Story from Friday – South Korea substituting feed wheat with corn – South Korea seeks 600K tons of optional origin corn for Feb shipment

 

Story from Friday- Japan seeks 2.2 MMT of feed corn for Oct/Dec shipment mostly US origin.

 

Argentine Ag Min week crop report from Friday – ‘13/14 wheat planting is 99% complete vs. 97% a year ago . Wheat area estimated at 3.926 MH

 

Argentine Ag Min said on Friday that 99% of Argentina’s corn crop has been harvested vs. 100% a year ago

 

GSO estimated Vietnam August rice exports at 700K tons vs. 650K tons in July

 

GSO said Vietnam exported 4.932 MMT of rice from Jan-Aug 2013 down 11.4% from a year ago

 

Thai Commerce Minister expects Thailand’s government to buy 18.0 MMT of rice in ‘13/14

 

Tunisia State Grains Agency said Tunisia will import 1.6 MMT of wheat and barley in 2013

 

Some showers in northwest Iowa on Saturday.

 

Midwest forecast hot and dry this week .

 

Dec corn 50 day moving average is 495 ¾

 

Dec bean oil 50 day moving average3 is 4455

 

Pro Farmer Midwest crop tour final estimates from Friday

  • US 2013 corn crop estimated at 13.46 BB vs. USDA estimate of 13.76 BB
  • US 2013 corn yield estimated at 154.1 BPA vs. USDA estimate of 154.4 BPA
    • Ohio final estimated at 168.0 BPA vs. daily tour estimate of 171.64 BPA and vs. USDA estimate of 172.0 BPA
    • Indiana final estimated at 163.0 BPA vs. daily tour estimate of 167.38 BPA and vs. USDA estimate of 166.0 BPA
    • Illinois final estimated at 164.0 BPA vs. daily tour estimate of 170.48 BPA and vs. USDA estimate of 165.0 BPA
    • Iowa final estimated at 163.0 BPA vs. daily tour estimate of 171.94 BPA and vs. USDA estimate of 163.0 BPA
    • Minnesota final estimated at 163.0 BPA vs. daily tour estimate of 181.09 BPA and vs. USDA estimate of 166.0 BPA
    • Nebraska final estimated at 161.0 BPA vs. daily tour estimate of 154.93 BPA and vs. USDA estimate of 161.0 BPA
    • South Dakota final estimated at 142.0 BPA vs. daily tour estimate of 161.75 BPA and vs. USDA estimate of 138.0 BPA
  • US 2013 bean crop estimated at 3.158 BB vs. USDA estimate of 3.255 BB
  • US 2013 bean yield estimated at 41.8 BPA vs. USDA estimate of 42.6 BPA
    • Ohio estimated at 48.0 BPA vs. USDA estimate of 50.0 BPA
    • Indiana estimated at 48.0 BPA vs. USDA estimate of 50.0 BPA
    • Illinois estimated at 46.0 BPA vs. USDA estimate of 47.0 BPA
    • Iowa estimated at 43.0 BPA vs. USDA estimate of 46.0 BPA
    • Minnesota estimated at 40.0 BPA vs. USDA estimate of 41.0 BPA
    • Nebraska estimated at 46.0 BPA vs. USDA estimate of 47.0 BPA
    • South Dakota estimated at 36.0 BPA unchanged from USDA estimate

 

Weekly COT supplemental report from Friday. Large spec positions as of Aug 20th futures and options combined

  • Wheat short 77,977
  • KC wheat short 621
  • Corn short 157,591
  • Beans long 61,529
  • Meal long 29,343
  • Bean oil short 56,473

 

Open interest as of Friday’s close

  • CZ 709,219 open, up 1,157
  • Total corn 1,168,839 open, down 9,543
  • SX 345,004 open, up 1,539
  • Total beans 575,923 open, up 6,641
  • SMZ 165,685 open, up 1,756
  • Total meal 282,856 open, up 1,497
  • BOZ 165,070 open, up 2,700
  • Total bean oil 296,467 open, up 1,656
  • WZ 249,850 open, up 5,670
  • Total wheat 395,095 open, down 5,350
  • KC WZ 88,555 open , up 3,958
  • Total KC wheat 141,312 open, up 2,220

 

Upcoming Reports/events

  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out today at 10 am CDT
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CDT expecting corn and bean conditions to fall 2-3%
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CDT
  • 2nd quarter US GDP comes out on Thursday at 730 am CDT
  • Position day for Sept futures is Thursday Aug 29th . Traders should be out of long positions or risk delivery
  • FND for Sept futures Aug 30th
  • USDA crop production report comes out Sept 12th
  • FSA acreage certification update comes out on Sept 17th

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg