News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

The government solution to a problem is usually as bad as the problem.
Milton Friedman,

 

September options expire today at 115 pm CDT.

 

Pro Farmer Midwest crop tour ended yesterday. Final results will come out today at 130 pm CDT. Results from the fourth day.

  • Iowa corn yield estimated at 171.9 BPA vs. 137.3 BPA a year ago and vs. 3 year average of 157.1 BPA
  • Minnesota corn yield estimated at 181.1 BPA vs. 156.2 BPA a year ago and vs. 3 year average of 172.5 BPA
  • Iowa average soybean pod count at 927 pods vs. 1,000 pods a year ago and vs. 3 year average of 1,190 pods
  • Minnesota average soybean pod count at 869 pods vs. 934 pods a year ago and vs. 3 year average of 1,099 pods

 

Overnight closes

  • SX up 16 ¼ at 1303
  • CZ up 5 ½ at 470
  • WZ up 3 ¾ at 644 ¼
  • KC WZ up 1 ¾ at 696 ¾
  • SMZ up 6.10 at 406.40
  • BOZ up 42 at 4318
  • RRX down 1.50 at 1548

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 17,874
  • CZ 13,457
  • WZ 3,597
  • KC WZ 1,812
  • SMZ 4,668
  • BOZ 5,909
  • RRX 30

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 15-17 higher
  • Corn 4-6 higher
  • Wheat 3-5 higher
  • KC wheat 1-3 higher
  • Meal 6-7 higher
  • Bean oil 40-50 higher
  • Rice 1-2 lower

 

Gold, silver, crude oil, dollar and stock market higher

 

Nikkei up 2.21%

Hang Seng down .146%

Shanghai Index down .471%

 

Palm oil up 11

 

Chinese grain markets – beans down 2, corn unchanged, meal down 2, palm oil up 8, bean oil down 24

 

Today is the last day of the international grains conference in Australia

 

Hearing China bought another 7 cargoes of Brazilian beans yesterday for March/June shipment. TALK China bought 25-32 South American bean cargoes this week
Saudi Arabia seeks 660K tons of optional origin hard wheat for Nov/Dec shipment

 

Bangladesh seeks 50K optional origin wheat for Sept/Nov shipment

 

India seeks 18K palm oil from Indonesia or Malaysia for Sept shipment

 

Russia Ag Min estimated Russia’s 2013 bean crop at 1.5-1.6 MMT vs. previous estimate of 1.9 MMT due to floods.

 

Russia Ag Min estimated ‘13/14 wheat exports at 15.0 MMT vs. 11 MMT a year ago

 

SAGIS said South Africa’s July corn ending stocks were 7.2 MMT vs. 6.1 MMT in June

 

SAGIS said South Africa exported 356,890 tons of corn in July.

 

Midwest warm and dry next week.

 

25 rice receipts canceled yesterday afternoon

 

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange Weekly Report

  • Argentine corn harvest is nearly complete . 99.3% of the crop is harvested
  • Estimated Argentine ‘12/13 corn crop at 24.8 MMT vs. Argentine Ag Min estimate of 32.1 MMT
  • Argentine ‘13/14 wheat planting is complete.
  • Argentine ‘13/14 wheat area at 3.9 MH unchanged from Ag Min estimate
  • Argentine ‘13/14 barley planting is complete
  • Argentine ‘13/14 barley area at 1.27 MH down 19.1% from a year ago
  • Argentine ‘13/14 sunflower planting is 11.7% complete
  • Estimated Argentina’s ‘13/14 sunflower area at 1.9 MH

 

FranceAgriMer weekly France crop report

  • Soft wheat harvest is 98% complete vs. 90% a week ago and vs. 98% a year ago
  • Durum wheat harvest is complete
  • Spring barley harvest is 99% complete vs. 84% a week ago and vs. 98% a year ago
  • Corn condition is 54% good to excellent down 1% from a week ago and vs. 74% a year ago

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CZ 708,469 open, down 5,024
  • Total corn 1,179,235 open, down 13,447
  • SX 343,847 open, up 7,499
  • Total beans 570,056 open, up 9,852
  • SMZ 164,0202 open, up 2,591
  • Total meal 281,917 open, up 2,546
  • BOZ 162,490 open, down 1,413
  • Total bean oil 294,981 open, down 3,516
  • WZ 244,329 open, up 3,149
  • Total wheat 400,815 open, down 2,881
  • KC WZ 84,614 open, up 2,479
  • Total KC wheat 139,630 open, up 252

 

Upcoming Reports/events

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CDT
  • SGS and Intertek Agri Services come out Monday with their Malaysian Aug 1-25th palm oil export estimates.
  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out on Monday at 10 am CDT
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CDT expecting corn and bean conditions to fall 2-3%
  • 2nd quarter US GDP comes out on Thursday at 730 am CDT
  • Position day for Sept futures is Thursday Aug 29th . Traders should be out of long positions or risk delivery
  • FND for Sept futures Aug 30th
  • USDA crop production report comes out Sept 12th
  • FSA acreage certification update comes out on Sept 17th

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg