News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

Fishing is much more than fish…. It is the great occasion when we may return to the fine simplicity of our forefathers.
– Herbert Hoover

 

Today is the last day of the Pro Farmer Midwest crop tour. Scouts will be in Iowa today. Final results from the tour will come out tomorrow after the close. Day 3 results ,

  • Illinois average bean pod count at 1,115.97 pods vs. 944.05 pods a year ago , and vs. 3 year average of 1,149.47 pods
  • Illinois average corn yield at 170.48 BPA vs. 121.60 BPA a year ago and vs. 3 year average of 148.04 BPA
  • Western Iowa average pod count at 965.18 pods vs. 3 year average of 1,185.8 pods
  • Western Iowa average corn yield at 168.6 BPA vs. 3 year average of 160.74 BPA
  • Northwestern Iowa average corn yield at 175.7 BPA up 3.8% from 3 year average

 

 

Overnight closes

  • SX down 12 ¾ at 1291 ¼
  • CZ down 5 at 478 ¼
  • WZ down 3 ½ 645 ¾
  • KC WZ down 3 ¾ at 698
  • SMZ down 8.10 at 400.00
  • BOZ up 9 at 4326
  • RRX down 1 at 1554

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 35,038
  • CZ 21,041
  • WZ 7,147
  • KC WZ 1,924
  • SMZ 13,772
  • BOZ 12,721
  • RRX 76

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 10-13 lower
  • Corn 4-6 lower
  • Wheat 3-5 lower
  • KC wheat  3-5 lower
  • Meal 7-9 lower
  • Bean oil steady to 10 higher
  • Rice 1-2 lower

 

Crude, gold, silver, dollar, and stock market higher.

 

Nikkei down .441%

Hang Seng up .356%

Shanghai Index down .282%

 

Weekly US jobless claims came out this morning at +13K ton 336K expecting 330K

 

August Flash Mfg PMIs

  • France 49.7 expecting 50.3 vs. July PMI of 49.7
  • German 52.0 as expected vs. July PMI of 50.7
  • Eurozone 51.0 expecting 50.2 vs. July PMI of 49.8
  • China HSBC at 50.1 (4 month high) vs. July HSBC final PMI of 47.7

 

Deutsche Bank estimated China’s second half of 2013 economic growth at 7.7% vs. previous estimate of 7.6%

 

Palm oil up 17

 

Chinese grain markets – beans up 9, corn up 5, meal up 16, palm oil down 16, bean oil down 34

 

Today is the second day of the international grains conference in Australia. Conference ends tomorrow.

  • Analysts at the conference estimated US ‘13/14 soybean production at a record high 92.5 – 95.26 MMT (3.398-3.500 BB) vs. USDA estimate of 88.6 MMT (3.255 BB)

 

US Grains Council estimated China’s ‘13/14 corn imports at 10.0 MMT

 

US Grains Council estimated China’s ‘12/13 corn imports at 3.0 MMT

 

USDA said China has bought 3.0 MMT of new crop US corn vs. 800,000 tons a year ago

 

China sold 187,050 tons of beans or 37.3% at today’s auction. They offered 500,000 tons.

 

Hearing China bought 3 cargoes of Brazilian beans yesterday for April/May shipment

 

TALK China has bought 20-25 cargoes of beans from Brazil and Argentina this week for March/June shipment

 

Japan bought 153,090 tons of milling wheat for Sept-Nov shipment Breakdown

  • 34,185 tons western white US wheat
  • 61,807 tons of HRW US wheat
  • 33,063 tons of DNS US wheat
  • 24,035 tons of western red spring Canadian wheat

 

German Farmers Association DBV estimated German’s 2013 winter wheat crop at 23.9 MMT vs. 2012 crop at 22.38 MMT

 

DBV estimated German’s 2013 rapeseed crop at 5.61 MMT vs. 2012 crop of 4.8 MMT

 

DBV said German’s winter barley harvest is complete and they harvested 8.2 MMT  vs. 7.0 MMT a year ago

 

Heavy rains in part of India may damage bean crop said their weather department

 

Rains in Iowa overnight

 

Weekly US export sales report

  • Wheat ‘13/14 494K tons (expecting 400-650K)
  • Corn ‘12/13 58,200 ’13/14 434,400 tons (expecting 550-950K)
  • Beans ‘12/13 20,900 ‘13/14 926,000 (expecting 1.35-2.0 M)
  • Meal ‘12/13 75,700 ‘13/14 101,000  (expecting 150-400K)
  • Bean oil ‘12/13 8,400 ‘13/14 1,300 (expecting 0-20K)
  • Cotton ‘13/14 81,000

 

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 494,000 MT for delivery in the 2013/2014 marketing year were up 1 percent from the previous week, but down 20 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Brazil (188,800 MT, including 50,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), China (52,300 MT, including 60,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 9,800 MT), Thailand (52,000 MT), South Korea (50,200 MT), Taiwan (47,900 MT), and Nigeria (39,900 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (69,600 MT). Exports of 871,300 MT were up 23 percent from the previous week and 30 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (240,600 MT), Nigeria (133,000 MT), Brazil (110,800 MT), Japan (74,900 MT), Yemen (47,300 MT), the Philippines (45,300 MT), Indonesia (44,000 MT), and Taiwan (39,100 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 58,200 MT for 2012/2013 resulted as increases for Mexico (35,800 MT), Japan (18,400 MT, including 18,100 MT switched from unknown destinations), Honduras (13,500 MT, including 12,300 MT switched from unknown destinations), Venezuela (10,000 MT), and Taiwan (5,100 MT), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (30,400 MT) and Canada (1,600 MT). Net sales of 434,400 MT for 2013/2014 were primarily for Mexico (166,300 MT), Japan (101,600 MT), and Guatemala (59,100 MT). Exports of 173,500 MT were down 54 percent from the previous week and 50 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (103,600 MT), Japan (28,600 MT), Panama (15,400 MT), and Honduras (13,500 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales of 20,900 MT for 2012/2013 resulted as increases for Indonesia (107,200 MT, including 107,100 MT switched from unknown destinations), Japan (23,300 MT, including 22,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Taiwan (15,800 MT), and Thailand (3,000 MT), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (129,100 MT). Net sales of 926,000 MT for 2013/2014 were primarily for China (681,000 MT), unknown destinations (159,500 MT), and Mexico (68,200 MT). Exports of 147,000 MT were up 56 percent from the previous week and 94 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Indonesia (111,300 MT), Japan (27,400 MT), Taiwan (3,800 MT), Vietnam (1,600 MT), and Malaysia (1,000 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales of 75,700 MT for 2012/2013 were down 38 percent from the previous week and 21 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Mexico (31,200 MT), Turkey (24,000 MT), Venezuela (9,000 MT), Canada (7,800 MT), and Honduras (6,000 MT, including 5,100 MT switched from unknown destinations). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (3,900 MT). Net sales of 101,000 MT for 2013/2014 were primarily for Honduras (32,600 MT), Guatemala (26,000 MT), Venezuela (25,000 MT), and the Dominican Republic (9,000 MT). Exports of 79,600 MT were down 45 percent from the previous week and 29 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (37,900 MT), Canada (15,600 MT), the Dominican Republic (7,100 MT), Panama (7,100 MT), and Honduras (5,100 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 8,400 MT for 2012/2013 were for Germany (4,000 MT), Colombia (3,000 MT), Mexico (1,000 MT), and Canada (300 MT). Net sales of 1,300 MT for 2013/2014 were reported for Mexico. Exports of 2,800 MT were down 44 percent from the previous week, but up 10 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (2,000 MT) and Canada (700 MT).
  • Cotton – Net Upland sales of 81,000 RB for 2013/2014 were primarily for Turkey (19,400 RB), China (13,500 RB, including 400 RB switched from South Korea), El Salvador (12,100 RB), Colombia (10,500 RB, switched from Mexico) and Vietnam (6,500 RB, including 5,400 RB switched from China). Exports of 240,500 RB were primarily to Mexico (58,700 RB), China (51,000 RB), Vietnam (47,300 RB), Turkey (27,300 RB), and Thailand (12,000 RB). Net American Pima sales of 10,800 RB for 2013/2014 were primarily for China (6,900 RB), Pakistan (1,800 RB), Taiwan (1,400 RB), and Thailand (600 RB). Exports of 11,200 RB were primarily to China (6,000 RB), Thailand (1,600 RB), Indonesia (1,500 RB), and India (900 RB).

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CZ 713,422 open, up 2,159
  • Total corn 1,192,932 open, down 6,378
  • SX 336,773 open, up 5,493
  • Total beans 560,819 open, up 15,039
  • SMZ 161,456 open, up 2,904
  • Total meal 280,101 open, up 4,931
  • BOZ 163,957 open, down 2,069
  • Total bean oil 298,588 open, down 3,441
  • WZ 241,276 open, up 6,965
  • Total wheat 403,901 open, down 567
  • KC WZ 86,156 open, up 1,671
  • Total KC wheat 139,909 open , up 741

 

Upcoming Reports/events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CDT expecting +67 B
  • German and UK 2nd quarter GDP comes out on Friday
  • September options expire tomorrow at 115 pm CDT
  • Final estimates from the Pro Farmer crop tour comes out tomorrow at 130 pm CDT
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CDT
  • SGS and Intertek Agri Services come out Monday with their Malaysian Aug 1-25th palm oil export estimates.
  • FND for Sept futures Aug 30th

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg