News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

I’m the wrong guy to be asking about suspensions. …

Alex Rodriguez

 

Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour. 2nd Day Results. Scout will be in Illinois and western Iowa today.

  • Nebraska average corn yield estimated at 154.9 BPA vs. 131.8 BPA a year ago and vs. 3 year average of 147.9 BPA
  • Nebraska soybean pod count at 1,138.9 pods vs. 894.4 pods a year ago and vs. 3 year average of  1,162.4 pods
  • Indiana average corn yield at 167.36 BPA vs. 113.25 BPA a year ago and vs. 3 year average of 141.14 BPA
  • Indiana soybean pod count average at 1,185.14 pods vs. 1,033.24 pods a year ago and vs. 3 year average of 1,136.48 pods

 

Overnight closes

  • SX up 23 ½ at 1314
  • CZ up 6 ¼ at 481 ¾
  • WZ up 5 ¼ at 651 ¼
  • KC WZ up 4 ¼ at 703 ½
  • SMZ up 8.20 at 410.20
  • BOZ up 51 at 4369
  • RRX up 1.50 at 1579.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 29,172
  • CZ 19,198
  • WZ 6,303
  • KC WZ 992
  • SMZ 7,784
  • BOZ 10,024
  • RRX 178

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 20-25 higher
  • Corn 5-7 higher
  • Wheat 4-6 higher
  • KC wheat 4-6 higher
  • Meal 8-9 higher
  • Bean oil 40-60 higher
  • Rice 1-2 higher

 

Dollar higher. Crude, gold, silver, stock market lower

 

Nikkei up .209%

Hang Seng down .694%

Shanghai Index up .019%

 

FOMC to read the minutes today at 1 pm CDT

 

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday

  • Crude draw of 1.2 MB expecting a draw of 1.0 MB
  • Gas a draw of 3.7 MB expecting a draw of 1.5 MB
  • Distillates a build of 1.8 MB expecting a build of 900,000

 

Palm oil up 4.

 

Good Chinese demand for palm oil ahead of mid-autumn festival in September

 

Chinese grain markets – beans down 1, meal down 8, bean oil up 56, corn unchanged, palm oil down 42, rapeseed down 2, rapeseed meal up 1, rapeseed oil down 46.

 

3 day international grains conference began today in Australia

 

Hearing China bought 5 cargoes of Argentine soybeans this week for April shipment

 

Hearing China bought 1 cargo of Brazilian beans yesterday for March shipment

 

China’s Ministry of Agriculture said China has harvested 70% of their grain crop and expects China’s 2013 grain crop to hit another record high for the 10th straight year, despite drought, the drought affected 6.7 MH  . In 2012 China’s grain crop was 589.6 MMT

 

Japan bought 38,860 tons of feed wheat via SBS tender for Nov shipment

 

Japan seeks 120K feed wheat and 200K tons of feed barley via SBS tender for Nov shipment

 

Japan seeks 153,090 tons of milling wheat for Sept-Nov shipment Breakdown

  • 34,185 tons western white US wheat
  • 61,807 tons of HRW US wheat
  • 33,063 tons of DNS US wheat
  • 24,035 tons of western red spring Canadian wheat

 

Soybean Export Council estimated ‘13/14 US bean crop at above 90.0 MMT (3.307 BB) vs. USDA estimate of 88.6 MMT (3.255 BB)

 

Soybean Export Council estimated ‘13/14 US bean yield at 44.0 BPA or higher vs. USDA estimate of 42.6 BPA

 

Corcoran Farms in Piketon Ohio (2,400 acres) said his soybean yield may be as high as 50.0 BPA . Ohio average bean yield estimated at 47.0 BPA

 

Scattered thunderstorms in forecast for Midwest tomorrow,  then warmer and dry the next 7-10 days.

 

Chinese industry analysts – Chinese crush breakdown.

  • For the week Aug 10-16th total crush volume at 1,293,450 tons up .57% from a week ago
  • For the week Aug 10-16th total crush capacity utilization at 49.63% up .29% from a week ago
  • Total crush volume between Oct 1, 2012 – Aug 16, 2013 at 53,460,900 tons up 2.61% from a year ago
  • Total crush volume between Jan 1, 2013 – Aug 16, 2013 at 37,898,320 tons up 5.31% from a year ago
  • As of Aug 16th total imported soybean stocks at 6.3256 MMT down 17,800 tons from a week ago
  • Estimated Aug bean imports at 5.81 MMT
  • Estimated Sept bean imports at 4.8 MMT
  • Estimated Oct bean imports at 4.5 MMT
  • Estimated Nov bean imports at 6.0 MMT

 

China’s July grain and oilseed imports – General Administration of Customs

  • Wheat 308,744 tons up 22.73% from a year ago
  • Barley 163,893 tons up 29.61% from a year ago
  • Corn 72,714 tons down 89.92% from a year ago
  • Rice 141,328 tons down 37% from a year ago
  • Soybean 7.197 MMT up 22.68% from a year ago
    • 5.437 MMT from Brazil up 43% from a year ago
    • 1.258 MMT from Argentina up 13.64% from a year ago
    • 500K from Uruguay  up 71% from a year ago
    • 698 tons from US  down 99.89% from a year ago
    • Rapeseed 241,810 tons up 13.86% from a year ago
    • Rapeseed oil 183,309 tons up 43.99% from a year ago
    • Rapeseed meal 2,773 tons down 91.61% from a year ago
    • Bean oil 158,581 tons down 21.86% from a year ago
    • Meal 815 down 39.45% from a year ago
    • Palm oil 488,120 tons up 3.32% from a year ago

 

China’s Jan – July grain and oilseed imports – General Administration of Customs

  • Wheat 1.71 MMT down 30.07% from a year ago
  • Barley 1.196 MMT down 26.88% from a year ago
  • Corn 1.595 MMT down 48.99% from a year ago
  • Rice 1.458 MMT up 3.97% from a year ago
  • Soybean 34.687 MMT down .66% from a year ago
    • 18.788 MMT from Brazil up 9.97% from a year ago
    • 2.175 MMT from Argentina down 8.12% from a year ago
    • 12.523 MMT from the US down 16.48% from a year ago
    • Rapeseed 2,014 MMT up 14.81% from a year ago
    • Rapeseed oil 1.066 MMT up 72.8% from a year ago
    • Rapeseed meal 13,057 tons down 96.12% from a year ago
    • Bean oil 583,412 tons down 23.93% from a year ago
    • Meal 12,083 tons down 70.85% from a year ago
    • Palm oil 3.337 MMT up 7.44% from a year ago

 

Stats Canada – ‘13/14 Canadian crop estimates

  • All wheat at  30.56 MMT vs. average estimate 29.7 MMT , range of estimates are 27.4-30.0 MMT. Vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 29.4 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 26.3 MMT
  • Canola at 14.73 MMT vs. average estimate 15.0 MMT , range of estimates are 14.6-15.3 MMT. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 14.1 MMT and Stats Can 5 year average of 13.2 MMT
  • Oats at 2.91 MMT vs. average estimate 3.2 MMT , range of estimates 3.0-3.3 MMT vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 3.2 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 3.1 MMT
  • Barley at 8.81 MMT
  • Flaxseed at 614,800 tons

 

Upcoming Reports/events

  • Weekly DOE #s come out today at 930 am CDT expecting
    • Crude a draw of 1.5 MB
    • Gas a draw of 1.5 MB
    • Distillates a build of 1.0 MB
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out today at 930 am CDT
  • European and China flash PMIs come out on Thursday
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT
  • German and UK 2nd quarter GDP comes out on Friday
  • September options expire on Friday at 115 pm CDT
  • Final estimates from the Pro Farmer crop tour comes out on Friday at 130 pm CDT
  • FND for Sept futures Aug 30th

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg