News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

Ask not what you can do for your country. Ask what’s for lunch.”

–Orson Welles

 

Pro Farmer Tour 1st day results.

  • South Dakota average corn yield 161.75 BPA vs. 74.26 BPA a year ago and vs. 3 year average of 119.65 BPA
  • South Dakota soybean pod count average at 1,016.68 pods vs. 584.93 pods a year ago and vs. 3 year average of 984.62 pods
  • Ohio average corn yield 171.6 BPA vs. 110.5 BPA a year ago and vs. 3 year average of 144.1 BPA
  • Ohio average soybean pod count at 1,283.6 pods vs. 1,033.7 a year ago and vs. 3 year average of 1,162.6 pods
  • Today the scouts will tour fields in NE, IN, and IL.

 

Overnight closes

  • SX down 11 ¾ at 1291 ½
  • CZ down 5 ¾ at 479 ¾
  • WZ down 4 ¼ at 649 ¼
  • KC WZ down 3 at 704 ¼
  • SMZ down 3.70 at 400.50
  • BOZ down 36 at 4342
  • RRX up 1.50 at 1559

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 33,151
  • CZ 21,313
  • WZ 6,274
  • KC WZ 837
  • SMZ 9,377
  • BOZ 10,676
  • RRX 53

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 10-13 lower
  • Corn 5-7 lower
  • Wheat 4-6 lower
  • KC wheat 2-4 lower
  • Meal 3-4 lower
  • Bean oil 30-40 lower
  • Rice 1-2 higher

 

Dollar lower. Stock market higher. Crude oil lower. Gold higher . Silver lower

 

Nikkei down 2.629%

Hang Seng down 2.196%

Shanghai Index down .628%

Most world stock markets lower

 

Palm oil down 4.

 

Chinese grain markets – beans up 20, meal down 67, bean oil down 18, corn down 3, palm oil up 20, rapeseed down 19, rapeseed meal up 6, rapeseed oil unchanged

 

Good US farmer selling noted yesterday in corn and beans.

 

Intertek Agri Services estimated Malaysia’s Aug 1-20th palm oil exports at 880,979 tons up 10% from a month ago
SGS estimated Malaysia’s Aug 1-20th palm oil exports at 891,582 tons up 12%

 

Shandong Sunrise Grain and Oil Trading accounted for 10% of China’s 2012 soybean imports. They imported 6.0 MMT of beans in 2012 and estimated 2013 bean imports at 8.0 MMT

 

Southeast Asia Soybean Export Council said US ‘13/14 bean exports to southeast Asia may fall by 5% and meal exports are expected to fall by 17% due to higher South American output. In ‘12/13 US exported 3.15 MMT of beans to southeast Asia up 8.7% from ‘11/12. In ‘12/13 US exported 1.32 MMT of meal to southeast Asia up 25% from ‘11/12

 

Taiwan BSPA bought 60K tons of US beans for Oct shipment.

 

Egypt Meditrade bought 20K bean oil for Sept/Oct shipment

 

Iraq seeks 15K optional origin sunflower oil

 

Senior Agricultural economist at Kansas State University expects corn prices to fall the next 3 months to $4.30. Currently Dec corn is trading 480.

 

Senior Agricultural economist at Kansas State University said an early frost could push up bean prices by $1 per bushel . Currently Nov beans trading 1291.

 

Kazakhstan Ag Min said as of Aug 20th Kazakhstan has harvested 1.368 MMT of grain on 863,300 hectares with an average yield of 1.58 TPH. A year ago Kazakhstan had harvested 980,700 tons of grain with an average yield of .92 TPH

 

Kazakhstan Ag Min estimated 2013 grain crop at 15.0 MMT vs. 12.8 MMT in 2012

 

CME lowers margins today.

 

23 bean oil receipts canceled yesterday afternoon

  • 21 out of Cargill Ackley IA
  • 2 out of SD Soybean Processors Volga SD

 

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday

 

Corn

  • Condition 61% good to excellent down 3% from a week ago (expecting steady to 2% lower) and vs. 23% a year ago
    • MO down 10%
    • CO down 7%
    • WI down 5%
    • IL down 4%
    • MI down 4%
    • MD down 3%
    • PA down 3%
    • NE down 2%
  • Silking 97% vs. 94% a week ago and vs. 99% 5 year average
  • Doughing 52% vs. 32% a week ago and vs. 65% 5 year average
  • Dented 11% vs. 5% a week ago and vs. 30% 5 year average

Beans

  • Condition 62% good to excellent down 2% from a week ago (expecting steady to 2% lower) and vs. 31% a year ago
    • ND down 10%
    • IL down 5%
    • MO down 5%
    • MN down 4%
    • WI down 4%
    • MI down 3%
    • IN down 2%
    • SD down 2%
    • LA up 6%
    • MS up 4%
    • NC up 3%
    • OH up 2%
  • Blooming 92% vs. 88% a week ago and vs. 96% 5 year average
  • Setting Pods 72% vs. 58% a week ago and vs. 81% 5 year average

 


Spring Wheat

  • Condition 66% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago
  • Harvested 18% vs. 6% a week ago and vs. 38% 5 year average

 

 

Winter Wheat

  • Harvested 96% vs. 92% a week ago and vs. 94% 5 year average

 

Rice

  • Headed 83% vs. 70% a week ago and vs. 80% 5 year average
  • Harvested 10% vs. 15% a year ago and vs. 11% 5 year average
  • Condition 70% down 1% from a week ago and vs. 70% a year ago

 

Cotton

  • Condition 46% up 3% from a week ago and vs. 41% a year ago
  • Setting bolls 85% vs. 73% a week ago and vs. 89% 5 year average
  • Bolls opening 8% vs. 16% a week ago and vs. 14% 5 year average

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CZ 722,016 open, down 800
  • Total corn 1,213,983 open, down 316
  • SX 332,331 open, up 8,377
  • Total beans 550,288 open, up 13,951
  • SMZ 157,097 open, up 6,045
  • Total meal 275,238 open, up 5,074
  • BOZ 168,710 open, down 3,201
  • Total bean oil 305,674 open, down 5,359
  • WZ 231,845 open, up 5,263
  • Total wheat 407,812 open, down 882
  • KC WZ 77,362 open, up 3,501
  • Total KC Wheat 138,620 open, down 427

 

Upcoming Reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CDT
  • 3 day international grains conference in Australia begins tomorrow
  • Based on a Reuters poll of 15 analysts . 2013 Canadian crop estimates – Stats Can comes out tomorrow with their crop report
    • All wheat average estimate 29.7 MMT , range of estimates are 27.4-30.0 MMT. Vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 29.4 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 26.3 MMT
    • Durum wheat average estimate 5.0 MMY, range of estimates are 4.8-5.1 MMT vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 4.9 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 4.5 MMT
    • Canola average estimate 15.0 MMT , range of estimates are 14.6-15.3 MMT. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 14.1 MMT and Stats Can 5 year average of 13.2 MMT
    • Oats average estimate 3.2 MMT , range of estimates 3.0-3.3 MMT vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 3.2 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 3.1 MMT
  • Weekly DOE #s come out tomorrow at 930 am CDT
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT
  • European and China flash PMIs come out on Thursday
  • German and UK 2nd quarter GDP comes out on Friday
  • Final estimates from the Pro Farmer crop tour comes out on Friday at 130 pm CDT

 

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg