News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

Dec wheat is top step today.

 

Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour begins today. Tour ends on Thursday. We will receive daily summaries from the tour and final estimates from the tour will be out Friday afternoon . Scouts on the tour will begin in Columbus Ohio and Sioux Falls South Dakota.

 

Overnight closes

  • SX up 20 ¼ at 1279 ½
  • CZ up 10 ¼ at 473 ¾
  • WZ up 5 ¾ at 649 ¼
  • KC WZ up 4 ¼ at 706 ½
  • SMZ up 7.10 at 393.40
  • BOZ up 34 at 4350
  • RRX up 6 at 1575

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 27,494
  • CZ 21,219
  • WZ 5,511
  • KC WZ 1,534
  • SMZ 6,521
  • BOZ 5,925
  • RRX 62

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 18-22 higher
  • Corn 9-11 higher
  • Wheat 5-7 higher
  • KC Wheat 3-5 higher
  • Meal 6-8 higher
  • Bean oil 30-40 higher
  • Rice 5-7 higher

 

 

As of 806 am CDT – Dollar unchanged, crude oil lower, stock market lower,  gold and silver lower.

 

Nikkei up .791%

Hang Seng down .240%

Shanghai Index up .828%

 

Palm oil up 29.

 

Chinese grain markets – beans up 20, meal up 12, bean oil unchanged, palm oil up 8, corn unchanged, rapeseed down 19, rapeseed meal up 6, rapeseed oil unchanged

 

Argentina markets are closed today for holiday

 

Not a lot of fresh news this morning

 

Midwest dry and warmer next 10 days

 

29 bean receipts canceled Friday afternoon – CGB canceled them.

 

Weekly COT supplemental report from Friday. Large Spec positions as of Aug 13th futures and options combined

  • Wheat short 75,193
  • KC Wheat short 3,870
  • Corn short 187,692
  • Beans long 13,153
  • Meal long 10,430
  • Bean oil short 69,388

 

CME to lower margins tomorrow

  • CME lowers corn futures (C) initial margins for specs by 25 pct to $2,025 per contract from $2,700
  • CME lowers live cattle futures (LC) initial margins for specs by 25 pct to $1,013 per contract from $1,350
  • CME lowers NYMEX coffee (KT) initial margins for specs by 22.2 pct to $3,850 per contract from $4,950
  • CME lowers soybean oil futures (07) old crop initial margins for specs by 20 pct to $1,350 per contract from $1,688
  • CME lowers soybean meal futures (06) initial margins for specs by 12.5 pct to $2,363 per contract from $2,700
  • CME lowers sugar 11 futures NYMEX (YO) initial margins for specs by 25.9 pct to $1,100 per contract from $1,485
  • CME lowers wheat futures (W) new crop initial margins for specs by 16.7 pct to $2,700 per contract from $3,240
  • CME lowers lean hog futures (LN) initial margins for specs by 20 pct to $1,350 per contract from $1,688
  • CME lowers NYMEX cocoa (CJ) initial margins for specs by 26.5 pct to $1,375 per contract from $1,870
  • CME lowers soybean futures (S)initial margins for specs by 11.8 pct to $4,050 per contract from $4,590

 

Open interest as of Friday’s close

  • CZ 722,157 open, down 191
  • Total corn 1,215,264 open, down 9,549
  • SX 324,299 open, up 886
  • Total beans 536,736 open, up 2,553
  • SMZ 151,139 open, up 1,307
  • Total meal 270,680 open, up 2,237
  • BOZ 171,959 open, down 2,686
  • Total beans oil 311,102 open, down 3,235
  • WZ 226,597 open, up 1,280
  • Total wheat 408,902 open, down 3,028
  • KC WZ 73,865 open, up 2,890
  • Total KC wheat 139,175 open, up 1,599

 

Upcoming Reports/events

  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out today at 10 am CDT
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CDT expecting corn and bean good to excellent conditions to be steady to down 2% from a week ago
  • SGS and Intertek comes out tomorrow with their Aug 1-20th Malaysian palm oil export estiamtes
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CDT
  • 3 day international grains conference in Australia begins on Wednesday
  • Based on a Reuters poll of 15 analysts . 2013 Canadian crop estimates – Stats Can comes out on Wednesday with their crop report
    • All wheat average estimate 29.7 MMT , range of estimates are 27.4-30.0 MMT. Vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 29.4 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 26.3 MMT
    • Durum wheat average estimate 5.0 MMY, range of estimates are 4.8-5.1 MMT vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 4.9 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 4.5 MMT
    • Canola average estimate 15.0 MMT , range of estimates are 14.6-15.3 MMT. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 14.1 MMT and Stats Can 5 year average of 13.2 MMT
    • Oats average estimate 3.2 MMT , range of estimates 3.0-3.3 MMT vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 3.2 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 3.1 MMT
  • European and China flash PMIs come out on Thursday
  • German and UK 2nd quarter GDP comes out on Friday

 

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg