News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

I made a game effort to argue but two things were against me: the umpires and the rules

Leo Durocher

 

There was no daily USDA export announcement this morning.

 

NOPA July crush report comes out today at 11 am CDT . Expecting

  • Crush –  average estimate 116.4 MB (smallest since Sept 2011) , range of estimates are 110.0-120.0 MB. June crush was 119.051 MB and July 2012 crush was 137.8 MB
  • Bean oil stocks – average estimate 2.193 billion pounds (9 year low) range of estimates are 2.028-2.650 B . June bean oil stocks were 2.298 B and July 2012 bean oil stocks were 2.345 B
  • Meal exports – no estimate is given for the meal exports. June meal exports were 415,331 tons and July 2012 exports were 653,260 tons

 

Overnight closes

  • SX up 11 ¼ at 1250 ¼
  • CZ up 8 ¾ at 464
  • WU up 4 ½ at 635
  • WZ up 4 ¼ at 647
  • KC WU up 3 ¼ at 702
  • KC WZ up 1 ¾ at 704 ¾
  • SMZ up 3.10 at 382.20
  • BOZ up 36 at 4299
  • RRU down 1 at 1525

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 28,716
  • CZ 20,356
  • WU 4,542
  • WZ 7,314
  • KC WU 562
  • KC WZ 693
  • SMZ 8,433
  • BOZ 8,490
  • RRU 20

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 10-13 higher
  • Corn 8-10 higher
  • Wheat 4-6 higher
  • KC wheat 2-4 higher
  • Meal 2.50-3.50 higher
  • Bean oil 30-40 higher
  • Rice steady lower

 

Dollar and stock market lower. Crude, gold, silver higher.

 

Nikkei down 2.115%

Hang Seng down .008%

Shanghai Index down .869%

Most world stock markets are lower this morning

 

Weekly US jobless claims report came out this morning at – 15K to 320K expecting 335K

 

US July CPI came out this morning at +.2% as expected

 

Palm oil up 30

 

Chinese grain markets – beans up 15, meal up 56, bean oil up 10, corn up 4, palm oil down 6, rapeseed down 37, rapeseed meal up 39, rapeseed oil up 14 Yuan.

 

Intertek Agri Services estimated Malaysia’s Aug 1-15th palm oil exports at 644,589 tons up 18% from a month ago

 

China sold 198,976 tons of beans at today’s auction. They offered 501,652 tons.

 

Hearing China bought up to 5 cargoes of Brazilian beans Tuesday and or Wednesday for Feb/March shipment

 

Hearing China bought 1 US bean cargo yesterday

 

Taiwan Sugar Corp bought 29K US corn and 5K US beans for Sept/Oct shipment

 

Taiwan TFMA bought 101,500 tons of US wheat (dark northern spring, HRW, and western white) for Sept/Oct shipment

 

Jordan seeks 100K optional origin wheat

 

Mauritius seeks 6K optional origin rice for Dec shipment

 

AIR Worldwide (Boston based agriculture consultant) estimated US 2013 corn yield at 157.6 BPA vs. USDA estimate of 154.4 BPA

 

AIR Worldwide (Boston based agriculture consultant) estimated US 2013 bean yield at 44.3 BPA vs. USDA estimate of 42.6 BPA

 

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange estimated Argentina’s ‘13/14 corn area at 3.56 MH vs. USDA estimate of 3.50 MH and vs. ‘12/13 area of 3.68 MH

 

Cargill to restart Lafayette IN crushing plant next week . Plant has been idled since May due to tight supplies.

 

UK farm ministry said as of 6/01/13 England’s wheat planting area at 1.5 MH (30 year low) down 19% from a year ago

 

UK farm ministry said as of 6/01/13 England’s rapeseed planting area at 674,000 hectares (second highest on record) down 5% from a year ago

 

Dry Midwest weather with below normal temps. Warmer weather in forecast for next week. Some dryness concerns

 

It is raining in western Iowa this morning.

 

Warmer weather in Canadian Prairies expected to boost canola development

 

Nov bean 100 day moving average is 1245 ½

 

29 new bean receipts were registered yesterday afternoon

  • 11 out of CGB Cahokia IL
  • 7 out of CGB Utica IL
  • 11 out of CGB Hennepin IL

 

129 new bean oil receipts registered yesterday afternoon

  • 4 out of Bunge Emporia KS
  • 125 out of Bunge Danville IL

 

Deliveries

  • Bean oil 552 with the date current – House Bunge issued 459, House ADM stopped 224
  • Beans 29 with the date current – House ADM stopped 20
  • No meal

 

Strategie Grains EU28 ‘13/14 crop estimates

  • Soft wheat crop at 134.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 133.4 MMT
  • Soft wheat exports at 22.0 MMT (record) unchanged from previous estimate
  • Corn crop at 65.7 MMT vs. previous estimate of 65.9 MMT
  • Barley at 58.3MMT vs. previous estimate of 57.3 MMT
  • Said soft wheat harvest is almost complete in Central and Southern Europe as of Aug 12th
  • Said Britain just starting wheat harvest
  • Said wheat harvest is underway in France

 

Weekly US export sales report

  • Wheat ‘13/14 490,100 ‘14/15 5,500 (expecting 600-800K)
  • Corn ‘12/13 – 59,100 ‘13/14 836,100 (expecting 300-600K)
  • Beans ‘12/13 – 10,500 ‘13/14 1.89 M (expecting 600K – 1.1 M)
  • Meal ‘12/13 122,400 ‘13/14 121,100 (expecting 100-225K)
  • Bean oil ‘12/13 1,800 ‘13/14 6,000 (expecting 0-15K)
  • Cotton ‘13/14 38,500 ‘14/15 5,300

 

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 490,100 MT for delivery in the 2013/2014 marketing year were down 33 percent from the previous week and 34 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Brazil (140,700 MT, including 50,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,800 MT), Sri Lanka (66,500 MT, including 55,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Nigeria (63,100 MT, including 10,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), China (60,900 MT, including 60,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 2,200 MT), Japan (59,600 MT), and Yemen (50,000 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (174,000 MT). Net sales of 5,500 MT for 2014/2015 were for the Leeward Windward Islands. Exports of 709,900 MT were down 8 percent from the previous week, but up 5 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Brazil (201,400 MT), China (130,100 MT), Mexico (109,800 MT), Chile (69,800 MT), Sri Lanka (66,500 MT), Nigeria (34,000 MT), and South Korea (25,500 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales reductions of 59,100 MT for 2012/2013 resulted as increases for China (62,500 MT), Mexico (28,800 MT), Guatemala (26,000 MT, including 18,700 MT switched from unknown destinations), El Salvador (11,100 MT, including 10,200 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Taiwan (9,500 MT), were more than offset by decreases for Japan (103,100 MT) and unknown destinations (100,700 MT). Net sales of 836,100 MT for 2013/2014 were primarily for unknown destinations (348,000 MT), Mexico (308,800 MT), and Japan (100,000 MT). Exports of 377,400 MT were down 12 percent from the previous week, but up 7 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (212,400 MT), Mexico (93,500 MT), Guatemala (20,200 MT), and Venezuela (20,000 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales reductions of 10,500 MT for 2012/2013 resulted as increases for China (47,800 MT), Taiwan (30,100 MT), Japan (15,700 MT, including 9,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Vietnam (13,400 MT), and Thailand (8,000 MT), were more than offset by decreases for unknown destinations 127,800 MT and South Korea (2,400 MT). Net sales of 1,893,400 MT for 2013/2014 were primarily for China (1,333,000 MT), unknown destinations (417,000 MT), and Japan (60,300 MT). Exports of 94,100 MT were up 90 percent from the previous week and 14 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (54,300 MT), Mexico (30,800 MT), Vietnam (3,900 MT), Indonesia (1,900 MT), and Taiwan (1,800 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales of 122,400 MT for 2012/2013 were up 83 percent from the previous week and 61 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for unknown destinations (42,600 MT), Mexico (17,900 MT), the Philippines (11,800 MT), El Salvador (9,100 MT, including 5,600 MT switched from unknown destinations), Canada (8,000 MT), and Guatemala (7,900 MT, including 6,800 MT switched from unknown destinations). Net sales of 121,100 MT for 2013/2014 were primarily for unknown destinations (57,500 MT), Turkey (23,000 MT), Jamaica (15,000 MT), and the Dominican Republic (15,000 MT). Decreases were reported for El Salvador (3,200 MT) and Israel (3,000 MT). Exports of 144,000 MT were up 53 percent from the previous week and 11 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Venezuela (64,900 MT), Mexico (23,400 MT), Canada (17,100 MT), Israel (8,400 MT), and Guatemala (7,000 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 1,800 MT for 2012/2013 resulted as increases for Mexico (2,100 MT) and Trinidad (200 MT), were partially offset by decreases for Canada (600 MT). Net sales of 6,000 MT for 2013/2014 were reported for Mexico. Exports of 5,000 MT were up 53 percent from the previous week and 22 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Nicaragua (3,500 MT), Canada (800 MT), Mexico (400 MT), Trinidad (100 MT), and Australia (100 MT).
  • Cotton – Net sales of 38,500 RB for 2013/2014 resulted as increases for Mexico (21,800 RB), Indonesia (9,400 RB, including 1,700 RB switched from Japan), Taiwan (8,700 RB), Turkey (8,400 RB) and Vietnam (7,500 RB), were partially offset by decreases for Japan (22,500 RB), Peru (3,000 RB), and China (900 RB). Net sales of 5,300 RB for 2014/2015 were for Mexico (3,500 RB) and Indonesia (1,800 RB). Exports of 279,200 RB were primarily to China (68,000 RB), Turkey (39,200 RB), Mexico (37,800 RB), Vietnam (36,300 RB), and Thailand (18,700 RB). Net American Pima sales of 18,000 RB for 2013/2014 were primarily for China (11,500 RB), South Korea (3,100 RB), India (1,600 RB), and Germany (1,000 RB). Exports of 12,300 RB were primarily to China (7,500 RB), India (1,500 RB), Germany (1,500 RB), and Thailand (1,100 RB).

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CZ 706,320 open, up 13,495
  • Total corn 1,213,097 open, up 6,811
  • SX 323,051 open, up 6,624
  • Total beans 526,156 open, up 11,963
  • SMZ 148,590 open, up 2,597
  • Total meal 264,754 open, up 4,137
  • BOZ 175,284 open, up 411
  • Total bean oil 316,779 open, down 830
  • WU 101,861 open, down 11,777
  • WZ 219,067 open, up 4.009
  • Total wheat 412,569 open, down 6,3694
  • KC WU 38,653 open, down 3,148
  • KC WZ 69,031 open, up 2,912
  • Total KC 135,941 open, up 2,039

 

Upcoming Reports/events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CDT expecting +69B
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CDT
  • Based on a Reuters poll of 15 analysts . 2013 Canadian crop estimates – Stats Can comes out on Aug 21st with their crop report
    • All wheat average estimate 29.7 MMT , range of estimates are 27.4-30.0 MMT. Vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 29.4 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 26.3 MMT
    • Durum wheat average estimate 5.0 MMY, range of estimates are 4.8-5.1 MMT vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 4.9 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 4.5 MMT
    • Canola average estimate 15.0 MMT , range of estimates are 14.6-15.3 MMT. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 14.1 MMT and Stats Can 5 year average of 13.2 MMT
    • Oats average estimate 3.2 MMT , range of estimates 3.0-3.3 MMT vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 3.2 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 3.1 MMT

 

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg