News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

Luxembourg ex-prime minister and EU solon, Jean-Claude Juncker a few years ago: “We all know what to do, but we don’t know how to get re-elected once we have done it.”

 

David Burge: Give a man a fish, he’ll eat one day. Promise a man free universal fish care insurance, he’ll re-elect you forever.

 

USDA announced 110K tons of new crop US beans sold to China.

 

August futures expire today at noon CDT.

 

Overnight closes

  • SX down 7 ½ at 1220 ¼
  • CZ up ¾ at 448
  • WU down a ½ at 627 ¾
  • WZ down 1 at 640 ½
  • KC WU down 1 ½ at 694 ¾
  • KC WZ down 2 ¾ at 699 ¼
  • SMZ down 2.60 at 370.20
  • BOZ down 24 at 4271
  • RRU up 11 at 1517

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 17,637
  • CZ 17,279
  • WU 5,798
  • WZ 8,423
  • KC WU 1,266
  • KC WZ 1,140
  • SMZ 6,316
  • BOZ 6,441
  • RRU 106

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 6-8 lower
  • Corn steady – 2 higher
  • Wheat steady – 1 lower
  • KC Wheat  1-2 lower
  • Meal 2-3 lower
  • Bean oil 20-30 lower
  • Rice 10-12 higher

 

Dollar, crude oil, stock market lower. Gold and silver higher

 

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday

  • Crude a draw of 999K expecting a draw of 1.5 MB
  • Gas a build of 1.7 MB expecting a draw of 800K
  • Distillates a build of 1.1 MB expecting a build of 800K

 

Palm oil down 3

 

Chinese grain markets – beans down 27, meal down 1, corn down 10, bean oil down 8, palm oil up 10, rapeseed down 62, rapeseed oil down 2, and rapeseed meal up 17 yuan.

 

Malaysia Palm Oil Board July data report came out this morning

  • Palm oil stocks at 1.66 MMT expecting 1.60 MMT and vs. 1.65 MMT in June and vs. 1.999 MMT in July 2012
  • Palm oil output at 1.67 MMT expecting 1.56 MMT and vs. 1.42 MMT in June and vs. 1.69 MMT in July 2012
  • Palm oil exports at 1.42 MMT expecting 1.45 MMT vs. 1.41 MMT in June and vs. 1.29 MMT in July 2012

 

Solvent Extractors Association of India – India’s July imports

  • Edible oils 874,703 tons vs. 848,229 tons a year ago
  • Total veg oils 889,493 tons up 2.2% from a year ago
  • Palm oil 568,254 tons vs. 599,128 tons a year ago

 

Solvent Extractors Association of India said India imported 7.8 MMT of edible oils between Nov 2012-July 2013 up 10% from a year ago .

 

Chinese industry analysts – Chinese crush breakdown

  • For the week Aug 3-9th total Chinese crush volume at 1,286,000 tons down 7.58% from a week ago
  • For the week Aug 3-9th total Chinese crush capacity utilization at 49.34% down 3.91% from a week ago
  • Total crush volume between Oct 1, 2012 – Aug 9, 2013 at 52,167,450 tons up 2.48% from a year ago
  • Total crush volume between Jan 1, 2013 – Aug 9, 2013 at 36,604,870 tons up 5.21% from a year ago
  • As of Aug 9th total Chinese imported bean stocks at 6.34 MMT up 69,900 tons from a week ago
  • Estimated China’s Aug bean imports at 5.81 MMT
  • Estimated China’s Sept bean imports at 4.6 MMT
  • Estimated China’s Oct bean imports at 4.1 MMT
  • Estimated China’s Nov bean imports at 6.3 MMT

 

NDRC said China imported 338K of cotton in July down 16.6% from a year ago

 

NDRC said China imported 2.75 M of cotton between Jan-July down 20.5% from a year ago

 

South Korea KFA bought 68K tons of US or South American origin corn for Feb shipment

 

South Korea CJ bought 47,800 tons of US wheat for Oct shipment

 

South Korea seeks 25,500 tons of US milling wheat for Oct/Nov shipment

 

South Korea bought 15K US rice of Dec shipment

 

South Korea Kocopia canceled tender for 55K optional origin corn for Dec shipment. Expecting prices to decline further

 

Taiwan Sugar Corp seeks 29K tons of US corn and 5K tons of US beans for Sept Oct shipment

 

Argentine soybean crushing workers on strike today in Rosario.

 

Russia Ag Min estimated Russia’s 2013 grain crop at 90.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 95.0 MMT

 

Russia’s Ag Min said Russia has harvested 47.0 MMT of grain so far vs. 41.8 MMT a year ago

 

Ukraine Ag Min estimated Ukraine’s Aug exports at 2.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 1.5-1.7 MMT

 

Ukraine Ag Min estimated their 2013 grain crop at a record 57.1 MMT vs. 2012 crp[ of 46.2 MMT

 

Ukraine Ag Min estimated 2013 grain exports at 28.0 MMT

 

APK Inform estimated Ukraine’s ‘13/14 grains and pulses exports at 30.4 MMT vs. 23.3 MMT a year ago . Including 18.0 MMT of corn , 9.5 MMT of wheat, and 2.5 MMT of barley

 

Kazakhstan State Statistics Agency said Kazakhstan exported 2.15 MMT of wheat between Jan – June 2013 down 57.5% from a year ago

 

World Weather said yesterday they expect favorable crop development weather in the Midwest for the next 10 days. Midwest forecast is dry , but soil moisture should be high enough to favorably support crops in most of the Midwest.

 

Rains in forecast for Iowa the next couple of days.

 

Warmer weather in forecast for Midwest next week.

 

15 bean oil receipts canceled yesterday afternoon out of Cargill Ackley IA.

 

59 rice receipts canceled yesterday afternoon

 

Deliveries

  • Bean oil 230 with the date at 8/09/13- ADM house stopped 156
  • No beans
  • No meal

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CZ 692,653 open, up 14,374
  • Total corn 1,206,242 open, up 1,370
  • SQ 176 open, down 229
  • SX 316,672 open, down 2,288
  • Total beans 514,686 open, up 5,984
  • SMQ 124 open, down 194
  • SMZ 146,020 open, down 542
  • Total meal 260,767 open, up 2,897
  • BOQ 462 open, down 138
  • BOZ 174,936 open, down 255
  • Total bean oil 317,672 open, up 55
  • WU 113,775 open, down 14,234
  • WZ 215,360 open, up 10,299
  • Total wheat 419,452 open, down 4,118
  • KC WU 42,119 open, down 3,501
  • KC WZ 66,154 open, up 4,688
  • Total KC wheat 134,261 open, up 2,597

 

Upcoming Reports/events

  • Weekly DOE #s come out today at 930 am CDT expecting
    • Crude a draw of 1.5 MB
    • Gas a draw of 1.6 MB
    • Distillates a build of 1.0 MB
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production comes out today at 930 am CDT .
  • China to auction 500K tons of soybeans from reserves tomorrow.
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services come out tomorrow with their  Aug 1-15 Malaysian palm oil exports estimates
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT
  • NOPA July crush report comes out tomorrow at 11 am CDT
  • Based on a Reuters poll of 15 analysts . 2013 Canadian crop estimates – Stats Can comes out on Aug 21st with their crop report
    • All wheat average estimate 29.7 MMT , range of estimates are 27.4-30.0 MMT. Vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 29.4 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 26.3 MMT
    • Durum wheat average estimate 5.0 MMY, range of estimates are 4.8-5.1 MMT vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 4.9 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 4.5 MMT
    • Canola average estimate 15.0 MMT , range of estimates are 14.6-15.3 MMT. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 14.1 MMT and Stats Can 5 year average of 13.2 MMT
    • Oats average estimate 3.2 MMT , range of estimates 3.0-3.3 MMT vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 3.2 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 3.1 MMT

 

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg