News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

It is a paradox that every dictator has climbed to power on the ladder of free speech. Immediately on attaining power each dictator has suppressed all free speech except his own.

Herbert Hoover

 

Overnight closes

  • SX up 9 ¾ at 1235
  • CZ up 4 at 468
  • WU up 4 ½ at 639 ½
  • WZ up 4 ½ at 653 ½
  • KC WU up 2 ¾ at 703
  • KC WZ up 2 ¼ at 709
  • SMZ up 2.40 at 374.40
  • BOZ up 48 at 4323
  • RRU up 2.50 at 1504

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 25,451
  • CZ 28,137
  • WU 8,322
  • WZ 10,214
  • KC WU 625
  • KC WZ 691
  • SMZ 7,859
  • BOZ 11,128
  • RRU 221

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 8-10 higher
  • Corn 3-5 higher
  • Wheat 3-5 higher
  • Meal 2-3 higher
  • Bean oil 40-50 higher
  • Rice  2-3 higher

 

Dollar, stock market, silver, and crude oil higher. Gold lower

 

Nikkei up 2.571%

Hang Seng up 1.212%

Shanghai Index up .231%

Most world stock markets higher

 

Palm oil up 54

 

Chinese grain markets – soybeans up 66 yuan, meal up 85 yuan, bean oil up 172 yuan, corn up 7 yuan, palm oil up 156 yuan, rapeseed up 85 yuan , rapeseed oil up 170 yuan, and rapeseed meal  up 170 yuan.

 

Surveyor SGS estimated Malaysia’s Aug 1-10 palm oil exports at 421,337 tons up 26% from a month ago

 

Based on a Reuters poll India’s July palm oil imports estimated at 570,143 tons down 15% from a month ago

 

Based on a Reuters poll India’s July veg oil imports estimated at 886,857 tons down 6.4% from a month ago

 

TALK China bought Argentine beans yesterday for Sept shipment

 

Bangladesh bought 200K Ukraine wheat

 

USDA attaché in Australia estimated ‘13/14 wheat crop at 24.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 25.5 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 crop of 22.0 MMT

 

Russia Ag Min said as of Aug 12 Russia has harvested 45.5 MMT of grain vs. 42.4 MMT a year ago with an average yield of 2.721 TPH

 

Russia Ag Min said as of Aug 12 Russia had harvested 33.4 MMT of wheat vs. 26.7 MMT a year ago with an average yield of 3.05 TPH vs. 2.24 TPH a year ago

 

IKAR estimated Russia’s grain crop at 89.7 MMT vs. previous estimate of 91.5 MMT

 

IKAR estimated Russia’s wheat crop at 51.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 52.5 MMT

 

UkrAgroConsult estimated Ukraine’s 2013 grain crop at 53.83 MMT vs. previous estimate of 51.93 MMT

 

UkrAgroConsult estimated Ukraine’s 2013 wheat yield at 3.15 TPH vs. previous estimate of 3.06 TPH

 

UkrAgoConsult estimated Ukraine’s 2013 wheat crop at 20.69 MMT vs. previous estimate of 20.12 MMT

 

UkrAgroConsult estimated Ukraine’s 2013 corn crop at 23.6 MMT

 

Ukraine Ag Min said wheat harvest is 99% complete and has harvested 22.9 MMT of wheat vs. 15.8 MMT

 

Ukraine Ag Min said barley harvest is 99% complete and has harvested 7.7 MMT of barley vs. 6.9 MMT a year ago

 

FranceAgrimer estimated France 2013 soft wheat crop at 36.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 35.9 MMT. Soft wheat yield estimated at 7.4 TPH

 

FranceAgrimer estimated France 2013 rapeseed crop at 4.5 MMT vs. 5.5 MMT a year ago . Rapeseed yield estimated at 3.1 TPH

 

Czech Stats Bureau estimated 2013 grain crop at 6.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 6.53 MMT and vs. 5.64 MMT in 2012

 

Midwest dry the next 7-10 days

 

Improving canola crop weather in Canadian Prairies

 

Nov beans 100 day moving average is 1246

 

Deliveries- Aug futures expire tomorrow at noon CDT

  • Bean oil 95 with the date at 8/06/13
  • No beans
  • No meal

 

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday

 

Corn

  • Condition 64% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago (as expected) vs. 23% a year ago
    • IA down 2% from a week ago
    • IN up 1% from a week ago
    • IL down 4% from a week ago
    • OH up 2% from a week ago
    • MO up 7% from a week ago
  • Silking 94% vs. 86% a week ago and vs. 95% 5 year average
  • Doughing 32% vs. 18% a week ago and vs. 48% 5 year average
  • Dented 5% vs. 39% a year ago and vs. 17% 5 year average

 

Georgia corn harvest 12% complete vs. 17% average

 

Texas corn harvest is 39% complete vs. 41% average

 

Louisiana corn harvest is 14% complete vs. 43% average

 

Beans

  • Condition 64% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago (as expected) and vs. 30% a year ago
    • IA down 4% from a week ago
    • IL down 4% from a week ago
    • IN unchanged  from a week ago
    • OH up 3% from a week ago
    • MO up 3% from a week ago
  • Blooming 88% vs. 79% a week ago and vs. 5 year average of 92%
  • Setting pods 58% vs. 39% a week ago and vs. 68% 5 year average

 

Spring Wheat

  • Condition 66% good to excellent down 2% from a week ago and vs. 61% a year ago
  • Harvested 6% vs. 61% a year ago and vs. 24% 5 year average

 

Winter wheat

  • Harvested 92% vs. 87% a week ago and vs. 91% 5 year average

 

Rice

  • Condition 71% good to excellent up 1% from a week ago and vs. 73% a year ago
  • Headed 70% vs. 53% a week ago and vs. 68% 5 year average

 

Cotton

  • Condition 43% good to excellent down 2% from a week ago and vs. 42% a year ago
  • Squaring 97% vs. 94% a week ago and vs. 97% 5 year average
  • Setting Bolls 73% vs. 53% a week ago and vs. 81% 5 year average

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CZ 678,936 open, up 18,618
  • Total corn 1,205,528 open, up 8,431
  • SQ 405 open, down 407
  • SX 319,335 open, down 1,095
  • Total beans 510,681 open, up 764
  • SMQ 318 open, down 373
  • SMZ 146,682 open, down 640
  • Total meal 258,175 open, up 1,224
  • BOQ 600 open, down 201
  • BOZ 175,271 open, down 3,372
  • Total bean oil 317,742 open, down 2,734
  • WU 128,079 open, down 12,743
  • WZ 205,826 open, up 8,932
  • Total wheat 424,565 open, down 154
  • KC WU 45,857 open, down 5,476
  • KC WZ 61,350 open, up 4,522
  • Total KC wheat 131,785 open, up 579

 

Upcoming Reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CDT
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board comes out tomorrow with their July data report. Based on a Reuters survey – estimates for the report
    • Palm oil stocks expecting 1.60 MMT vs. 1.65 MMT in June
    • Palm oil output expecting 1.56 MMT vs. 1.42 MMT in June
    • Palm oil exports expecting 1.45 MMT vs. 1.41 MMT in June
  • Weekly DOE #s come out tomorrow at 930 am CDT
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT
  • Last trading day for August futures is tomorrow. Futures expire at noon CDT.
  • China to auction 500K tons of soybeans from reserves on Thursday.
  • NOPA July crush report comes out on Thursday at 11 am CDT
  • Based on a Reuters poll of 15 analysts . 2013 Canadian crop estimates – Stats Can comes out on Aug 21st with their crop report
    • All wheat average estimate 29.7 MMT , range of estimates are 27.4-30.0 MMT. Vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 29.4 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 26.3 MMT
    • Durum wheat average estimate 5.0 MMY, range of estimates are 4.8-5.1 MMT vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 4.9 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 4.5 MMT
    • Canola average estimate 15.0 MMT , range of estimates are 14.6-15.3 MMT. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 14.1 MMT and Stats Can 5 year average of 13.2 MMT
    • Oats average estimate 3.2 MMT , range of estimates 3.0-3.3 MMT vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 3.2 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 3.1 MMT

 

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg