News From The Grain Floor

“I Would Be Concerned Too, If I Weren’t Inside The Government”

Barak Obama

 

USDA announcements this morning

  • China bought 713K tons of new crop US beans
  • Unknown bought 140K tons of new crop US beans
  • Mexico bought 252,153 tons of new crop US corn

 

USDA Crop Production and Supply and Demand Report comes out today at 11 am CDT.  See attachment for the recap table for the report. I will email out the report as soon as possible.

 

Overnight closes

  • SX up 12 at 1194 1/4
  • CZ up a ½ at 453 ¾
  • WU down 1 ½ at 632
  • WZ down 1 ¾ at 645 1/2
  • KC WU down a ½ at 696 3/4
  • KC WZ down ¾ at 702 ¾
  • SMZ up 4.30 at 360.40
  • BOZ up 46 at 4234
  • RRU up 6 at 1525

 

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 16,700
  • CZ 17,262
  • WU 8,870
  • WZ 9,318
  • KC WU 749
  • KC WZ 980
  • SMZ 4,788
  • BOZ 7,436
  • RRU 42

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 10-13 higher
  • Corn steady to 2 higher
  • Wheat 1-2 lower
  • Meal 4-5 higher
  • Bean oil 40-50 higher
  • Rice 5-7 higher

 

Dollar , gold, and silver higher. Stock market and crude oil lower

 

Nikkei down .703%

Hang Seng up 2.126%

Shanghai Index up 2.39%

 

Japan’s 2nd quarter GDP came out at +2.6% expecting +3.6% and vs. +3.8% in the 1st quarter.

 

Palm oil up 34.

 

Chinese grain markets – beans up 14 yuan, meal up 6 yuan, bean oil up 6 yuan, corn down 6 yuan, palm oil up 12 yuan, rapeseed up 12 yuan, rapeseed meal up 5 yuan, and rapeseed oil down 12 yuan.

 

Lack of fresh news this morning.

 

Surveyor Intertek Agri Services estimated Malaysia’s Aug 1-10th palm oil exports at 417,414 tons up 18% from a month ago.

 

China’s palm oil stocks at ports is at 1.14 MMT up 140,000 tons from a week ago .

 

Taiwan seeks 101,500 tons of US wheat for Sept-Oct shipment.

 

Bangladesh seeks 50K optional origin wheat for Aug-Oct shipment

 

Bangladesh state grain buyer is expected to import 850,000 tons of wheat in ‘13/14.

 

Hearing China bought 4 cargoes of US beans on Friday 1 for Oct shipment, 1 for Nov shipment, 1 for Dec shipment, and 1 for Jan shipment

 

TALK China bought about 10 cargoes of US beans last week. – USDA confirmed this morning.

 

Hearing China bought 1 cargo of Brazilian beans on Friday for Sept shipment

 

TALK China bought 2 cargoes of Australian canola last week for Dec shipment

 

Vietnam Food Association said Vietnam exported 87,663 tons of rice between Aug 1-8th.

 

Vietnam Food Association said Vietnam exported 4.15 MMT of rice between Jan 1 – Aug 8th.

 

On Friday French Farm Ministry estimated France’s 2013 soft wheat crop at 36.1 MMT vs. previous estimate of 35.9 MMT and up 1.7% from 2012

 

On Friday French Farm Ministry estimated France’s 2013 corn crop at 15.6 MMT (this was their first corn crop estimate this season) vs. 15.0 MMT in 2012

 

On Friday French Farm Ministry estimated France’s 2013 rapeseed crop at 4.4 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and down 19.4% from 2012.

 

Rains this week end in parts of northern Iowa, southern Minnesota, and southeast South Dakota.

 

Dry Midwest forecast for this week.

 

Today is the fourth day of the Goldman Sachs roll. Roll ends tomorrow. Goldman Sachs is rolling there long Sept corn and wheat position into Dec.

 

Dec meal 100 day moving average is 360.80

 

Deliveries

  • Bean oil 45 with the date at 8/05/13
  • No beans
  • No meal

 

Weekly COT supplemental report from Friday. Large spec positions as of 8/06/13 (futures and options combined).

  • Wheat short 76,424
  • KC Wheat short 40,482
  • Beans short 1,196
  • Meal long 4,607
  • Bean oil short 77,208

 

Open interest as of Friday’s close

  • CZ 660,149 open, up 13,207
  • Total corn 1,197,980 open, up 3,069
  • SQ 812 open, down 398
  • SX 320,347 open, up 2,860
  • Total beans 509,945 open, up 7,054
  • SMQ 691 open, down 634
  • SMZ 147,423 open, up 355
  • Total meal 257,316 open, up 2,043
  • BOQ 801 open, down 76
  • BOZ 178,750 open, up 622
  • Total bean oil 320,593 open, up 423
  • WU 140,940 open, down 4,876
  • WZ 197,002 open, up 8,946
  • Total wheat 425,053 open, up 7,666
  • KC WU 51,606 open, down 6,503
  • KC WZ 56,945 open, up 4,204
  • Total KC wheat 131,641 open, down 1,186

 

Estimates for today’s USDA report. Report comes out at 11 am CDT

 

2013 US corn and soybean production estimates (25 analysts surveyed)

  • 2013 US corn crop average estimate 13.980 BB, range of estimates are 13.485 – 14.269 BB. USDA July estimate was 13.95 BB and 2012 US corn crop was 10.780 BB
  • 2013 US corn yield average estimate 157.72 BPA , range of estimates are 154.0-161.2 BPA. USDA July estimate was 156.5 BPA and 2012 US corn yield was 123.4 BPA
  • 2013 US bean crop average estimate 3.338 BB, range of estimates are 3.22-3.40 BB. USDA July estimate was 3.42 BB and 2012 US bean crop was 3.015 BB
  • 2013 US bean yield average estimate 43.472 BPA, rage of estimates are 42.0-44.4 BPA. USDA July estimate was 44.5 BPA and 2012 US bean yield was 39.6 BPA

 

2013 US wheat production estimates

  • 2013 All wheat crop (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate 2.112 BB, range of estimates are 2.025-2.148 BB. USDA July estimate was 2.113 BB and 2012 US all wheat crop was 2.269 BB
  • 2013 All winter wheat crop (18 analysts surveyed) average estimate 1.548 BB, range of estimates are 1.51-1.588 BB. USDA July estimate was 1.543 BB and 2012 US all winter wheat crop was 1.645 BB
  • 2013 HRW wheat crop (14 analysts surveyed) average estimate .792 BB, range of estimates are .764-.803 BB. USDA July estimate was .793 BB and 2012 US HRW wheat crop was 1.004 BB
  • 2013 SRW wheat crop (14 analysts surveyed) average estimate .540 BB, range of estimates are .535-.550. USDA July estimate was 5.39 BB and 2012 US SRW wheat crop was .420 BB
  • 2013 western white wheat crop (14 analysts surveyed) average estimate .217 BB, range of estimates are .205-.248 BB. USDA July estimate was .211 BB and 2012 US western white wheat crop was .222 BB
  • 2013 other spring wheat crop (18 analysts surveyed) average estimate .503 BB, range of estimates are .435-.538 BB. USDA July estimate was .513 BB and 2012 US other spring wheat crop was .542 BB
  • 2013 durum wheat crop (18 analysts surveyed) average estimate .059 BB, range of estimates are .047-.080 BB. USDA July estimate was .058 BB and 2012 US durum wheat crop was .082 BB

 

Global ending stocks estimates

  • ‘12/13 corn ending stocks (10 analysts surveyed) average estimate 124.042 MMT, range of estimates are 122.82 – 126.00 MMT. USDA July estimate was 123.57 MMT
  • ‘12/13 bean ending stocks  (10 analysts surveyed) average estimate 61.417 MMT, range of estimates are 60.25-62.5 MMT. USDA July estimate was 61.52 MMT
  • ‘13/14 wheat ending stocks (11 analysts surveyed) average estimate 171.838 MMT, range of estimates are 168.0-181.11 MMT. USDA July estimate 172.38 MMT
  • ‘13/14 corn ending stocks (11 analysts surveyed) average estimate 151.09 MMT, range of estimates are 148.0-155.0 MMT. USDA July estimate was 150.97 MMT
  • ‘13/14 bean ending stocks (11 analysts surveyed) average estimate 73.591 MMT, range of estimates are 68.48-75.1 MMT. USDA July estimate was 74.120 MMT

 

US ending stock estimates

  • ‘12/13 corn ending stocks (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate .725 BB, range of estimates are .537-.819 BB. USDA July estimate was .729 BB
  • ‘12/13 bean ending stocks (19 analysts surveyed) average estimate .122 BB, range of estimates are .109-.135 BB. USDA July estimate was .125 BB
  • ‘13/14 wheat ending stocks (18 analysts surveyed) average estimate .573 BB, range of estimates are .489-.653 BB. July USDA estimate was .576 BB
  • ‘13/14 corn ending stocks (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate 1.971 BB, range of estimates are 1.498 – 2.431 BB. July USDA estimate was 1.959 BB
  • ‘13/14 bean ending stocks (19 analysts surveyed) average estimate .263 BB, range of estimates are .131-.306 BB. July USDA estimate was .295 BB

 

Upcoming Reports/events

  • Weekly US export inspection report comes out today at 10 am CDT
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CDT expecting corn and soybean good to excellent ratings some analysts are saying steady to 2% lower other analysts are saying steady to 1% higher . Conditions usually start to decline in August.
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CDT
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board comes out on Wednesday with their July data report. Based on a Reuters survey – estimates for the report
    • Palm oil stocks expecting 1.60 MMT vs. 1.65 MMT in June
    • Palm oil output expecting 1.56 MMT vs. 1.42 MMT in June
    • Palm oil exports expecting 1.45 MMT vs. 1.41 MMT in June
  • Last trading day for August futures is Wednesday . Futures expire at noon CDT.
  • China to auction 500K tons of soybeans from reserves on Thursday.
  • NOPA July crush report comes out on Thursday at 11 am CDT
  • Based on a Reuters poll of 15 analysts . 2013 Canadian crop estimates – Stats Can comes out on Aug 21st with their crop report
    • All wheat average estimate 29.7 MMT , range of estimates are 27.4-30.0 MMT. Vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 29.4 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 26.3 MMT
    • Durum wheat average estimate 5.0 MMY, range of estimates are 4.8-5.1 MMT vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 4.9 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 4.5 MMT
    • Canola average estimate 15.0 MMT , range of estimates are 14.6-15.3 MMT. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 14.1 MMT and Stats Can 5 year average of 13.2 MMT
    • Oats average estimate 3.2 MMT , range of estimates 3.0-3.3 MMT vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 3.2 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 3.1 MMT

 

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg