News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

Art is what you can get away with.

Andy Warhol

 

Overnight closes

  • SX up 8 ¾ at 1193
  • CZ down a ½ at 459 ¼
  • WU up 2 ½ at 643 ¾
  • WZ up 2 ½ at 656 ¼
  • SMZ up 3.80 at 360.60
  • BOZ up 13 at 4223
  • RRU unchanged at 1528

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 12,994
  • CZ 14,659
  • WU 4,429
  • WZ 4,845
  • SMZ 4,965
  • BOZ 4,629
  • RRU 36

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 7-9 higher
  • Corn steady lower
  • Wheat 2-3 higher
  • Meal 3.00-4.00 higher
  • Bean oil 10-20 higher
  • Rice steady mixed

 

Dollar, crude oil , and silver higher. Gold and stock market lower

 

Nikkei down 1.586%

Hang Seng up .308%

Shanghai Index up .358%

 

Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil markets are closed today. Trading resumes on  Monday.

 

China grain markets – soybeans up 20 yuan, corn up 5 yuan, meal up 34 yuan, palm oil up 36 yuan, bean oil up 32 yuan,

 

Taiwan bought 60K tons of Brazilian corn for Oct shipment

 

Hearing China seeking Brazilian beans for March/May shipment.

 

CNGOIC estimated China’s ‘13/14 wheat imports at 6.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 5.0 MMT

 

Other Chinese analysts are estimating China’s ‘13/14 wheat imports at 10.0 MMT

 

CNGOIC estimated China’s ‘13/14 corn imports at 5.5 MMT vs. ‘12/13 corn import estimate of 2.7 MMT

 

CNGOIC said China has already bought about 4.0 MMT of US corn for ‘13/14 delivery

 

CNGOIC estimated China’s ‘13/14 rice imports at 4.0 MMT vs. ‘12/13 rice imports of 3.5 MMT

 

CNGOIC estimated China’s ‘13/14 rice output at 35.0 MMT down 6.4% from a year ago

 

Russia’s Ag Min said as of Aug 8th Russia has harvested 41.5 MMT of grain with an average yield of 2.79 TPH vs. a year ago of 38.6 MMT with an average yield of 2.17 TPH

  • Russia has harvested 31.6 MMT of wheat with an average yield of 3.07 TPH. A year ago Russia harvested 25.7 MMT of wheat with an average yield of 2.32 TPH

 

Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine has exported 1.7 MMT of grain between July 1st – Aug 7th.

 

Ukraine Ag Min expects Ukraine’s grain exports to hit a record high this year.

 

Kazakhstan Ag Min said as of Aug 8th Kazakhstan has harvested 1.05 MMT of grain on 643,200 hectares with an average yield of 1.6 TPH. A year ago Kazakhstan had harvested 657,900 tons of grain with an average yield of .99 TPH

 

Kazakhstan planted grains on a total of 15.7 MH

 

Kazakhstan Ag Min estimated 2013 grain crop at 16.3 MMT vs. 12.9 MMT in 2012

 

Kazakhstan Ag Min estimated ‘13/14 grain exports at 7-8 MMT vs. 7.1 MMT a year ago

 

Romania Ag Min said 2013 wheat crop is 7.3 MMT (record) vs. 5.2 MMT in 2012

 

Anacer said Italy imported 1.542 MMT of corn between Jan-May vs. 985,651 tons a year ago

 

Anacer said Italy imported 1.323 MMT of soft wheat between Jan-May vs. 1.86 MMT a year ago
Anacer said Italy imported 473,331 tons of durum between Jan-May vs. 610,378 tons a year ago

 

FranceAgriMer weekly French crop report

  • Soft wheat harvest is 71% complete vs. 30% a week ago and vs. 74% a year ago
  • Durum wheat harvest is 96% complete vs. 56% a week ago and vs. 97% a year ago
  • Corn crop condition – 55% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago and vs. 77% good to excellent a year ago

 

Lanworth estimates

  • ‘13/14 US corn crop estimated at 14.060 BB vs. previous estimate of 14.0 BB
  • ‘13/14 US corn yield estimated at 159.1 BPA vs. previous estimate of 158.5 BPA
  • ‘13/14 US bean crop estimated at 3.32 BB vs. previous estimate of 3.31 BB
  • ‘13/14 China corn crop estimated at 213.0 MMT down 1% from previous estimate
  • ‘13/14 global corn crop estimated at 965.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • ‘13/14 global bean crop estimated at 283.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • ‘13/14 global wheat crop estimated at 692.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 694.0 MMT

 

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange weekly Argentine crop report

  • ‘13/14 sunflower area estimated at 1.9 MH up 5.5% from a year ago .
  • 4.8% of the sunflower crop has been planted vs. 3.3% a year ago
  • Corn harvest is 97.7% complete vs. 96.5% a week ago
  • Estimated ‘12/13 corn crop at 24.8 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • ‘13/14 wheat crop planting is 97.9% complete vs. 95.3% a week ago and  vs. 98% a year ago
  • Said wheat planting should be complete in the next 10 days

 

Rain is needed in western Iowa and east central IL

 

8 bean oil receipts canceled yesterday afternoon out of Cargill Ackley IA

 

42 rice receipts canceled yesterday afternoon

 

Dec meal 100 day moving average is 360.80

 

Dec meal 200 day moving average is 363.00

 

Today is the third day of the Goldman Sachs roll. Roll ends on Tuesday

 

Deliveries

  • Bean oil 70 with the date at 8/05/13
  • No beans
  • No meal

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CZ 646,750 open, up 15,944
  • Total corn 1,194,667 open, up 10,869
  • SQ 1,210 open, down 725
  • SX 317,907 open, up 4,444
  • Total beans 503,406 open, up 6,501
  • SMQ 1,325 open, down 955
  • SMZ 147,227 open, down 894
  • Total meal 255,549 open, up 404
  • BOQ 877 open, down 521
  • BOZ 178,174 open, up 240
  • Total bean oil 320,224 open, down 178
  • WU 145,848 open, down 11,333
  • WZ 188,123 open, up 6,588
  • Total wheat 417,564 open, down 2,062
  • KC WU 58,356 open, down 8,941
  • KC WZ 52,778 open, up 2,462
  • Total KC wheat 133,125 open, down 5,413

 

Estimates for Monday’s USDA report. Report comes out at 11 am CDT

 

2013 US corn and soybean production estimates (25 analysts surveyed)

  • 2013 US corn crop average estimate 13.980 BB, range of estimates are 13.485 – 14.269 BB. USDA July estimate was 13.95 BB and 2012 US corn crop was 10.780 BB
  • 2013 US corn yield average estimate 157.72 BPA , range of estimates are 154.0-161.2 BPA. USDA July estimate was 156.5 BPA and 2012 US corn yield was 123.4 BPA
  • 2013 US bean crop average estimate 3.338 BB, range of estimates are 3.22-3.40 BB. USDA July estimate was 3.42 BB and 2012 US bean crop was 3.015 BB
  • 2013 US bean yield average estimate 43.472 BPA, rage of estimates are 42.0-44.4 BPA. USDA July estimate was 44.5 BPA and 2012 US bean yield was 39.6 BPA

 

2013 US wheat production estimates

  • 2013 All wheat crop (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate 2.112 BB, range of estimates are 2.025-2.148 BB. USDA July estimate was 2.113 BB and 2012 US all wheat crop was 2.269 BB
  • 2013 All winter wheat crop (18 analysts surveyed) average estimate 1.548 BB, range of estimates are 1.51-1.588 BB. USDA July estimate was 1.543 BB and 2012 US all winter wheat crop was 1.645 BB
  • 2013 HRW wheat crop (14 analysts surveyed) average estimate .792 BB, range of estimates are .764-.803 BB. USDA July estimate was .793 BB and 2012 US HRW wheat crop was 1.004 BB
  • 2013 SRW wheat crop (14 analysts surveyed) average estimate .540 BB, range of estimates are .535-.550. USDA July estimate was 5.39 BB and 2012 US SRW wheat crop was .420 BB
  • 2013 western white wheat crop (14 analysts surveyed) average estimate .217 BB, range of estimates are .205-.248 BB. USDA July estimate was .211 BB and 2012 US western white wheat crop was .222 BB
  • 2013 other spring wheat crop (18 analysts surveyed) average estimate .503 BB, range of estimates are .435-.538 BB. USDA July estimate was .513 BB and 2012 US other spring wheat crop was .542 BB
  • 2013 durum wheat crop (18 analysts surveyed) average estimate .059 BB, range of estimates are .047-.080 BB. USDA July estimate was .058 BB and 2012 US durum wheat crop was .082 BB

 

Global ending stocks estimates

  • ‘12/13 corn ending stocks (10 analysts surveyed) average estimate 124.042 MMT, range of estimates are 122.82 – 126.00 MMT. USDA July estimate was 123.57 MMT
  • ‘12/13 bean ending stocks  (10 analysts surveyed) average estimate 61.417 MMT, range of estimates are 60.25-62.5 MMT. USDA July estimate was 61.52 MMT
  • ‘13/14 wheat ending stocks (11 analysts surveyed) average estimate 171.838 MMT, range of estimates are 168.0-181.11 MMT. USDA July estimate 172.38 MMT
  • ‘13/14 corn ending stocks (11 analysts surveyed) average estimate 151.09 MMT, range of estimates are 148.0-155.0 MMT. USDA July estimate was 150.97 MMT
  • ‘13/14 bean ending stocks (11 analysts surveyed) average estimate 73.591 MMT, range of estimates are 68.48-75.1 MMT. USDA July estimate was 74.120 MMT

 

US ending stock estimates

  • ‘12/13 corn ending stocks (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate .725 BB, range of estimates are .537-.819 BB. USDA July estimate was .729 BB
  • ‘12/13 bean ending stocks (19 analysts surveyed) average estimate .122 BB, range of estimates are .109-.135 BB. USDA July estimate was .125 BB
  • ‘13/14 wheat ending stocks (18 analysts surveyed) average estimate .573 BB, range of estimates are .489-.653 BB. July USDA estimate was .576 BB
  • ‘13/14 corn ending stocks (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate 1.971 BB, range of estimates are 1.498 – 2.431 BB. July USDA estimate was 1.959 BB
  • ‘13/14 bean ending stocks (19 analysts surveyed) average estimate .263 BB, range of estimates are .131-.306 BB. July USDA estimate was .295 BB

 

Upcoming Reports/events

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CDT
  • Weekly US export inspection report comes out on Monday at 10 am CDT
  • USDA crop production report comes out on Monday at 11 am CDT
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services come out with their Malaysian Aug 1-10th palm oil export estimates on Monday
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CDT
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board comes out on Wednesday with their July data report. Based on a Reuters survey – estimates for the report
    • Palm oil stocks expecting 1.60 MMT vs. 1.65 MMT in June
    • Palm oil output expecting 1.56 MMT vs. 1.42 MMT in June
    • Palm oil exports expecting 1.45 MMT vs. 1.41 MMT in June
  • Last trading day for August futures is Wednesday
  • NOPA July crush report comes out on Thursday at 11 am CDT
  • Based on a Reuters poll of 15 analysts . 2013 Canadian crop estimates – Stats Can comes out on Aug 21st with their crop report
    • All wheat average estimate 29.7 MMT , range of estimates are 27.4-30.0 MMT. Vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 29.4 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 26.3 MMT
    • Durum wheat average estimate 5.0 MMY, range of estimates are 4.8-5.1 MMT vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 4.9 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 4.5 MMT
    • Canola average estimate 15.0 MMT , range of estimates are 14.6-15.3 MMT. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 14.1 MMT and Stats Can 5 year average of 13.2 MMT
    • Oats average estimate 3.2 MMT , range of estimates 3.0-3.3 MMT vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 3.2 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 3.1 MMT

 

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg