News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

“I went through life as a player to be named later.”

Joe Garagiola

 

Overnight closes

  • SX up 10 ¾ at 1176 ½
  • CZ up 3 ½ at 461 ¾
  • WU up 1 ½ at 645
  • SMZ up 4.10 at 351.50
  • BOZ up 23 at 4233
  • RRU up 6.50 at 1541

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 13,268
  • CZ 14,168
  • WU 7,162
  • SMZ 3,862
  • BOZ 4,509
  • RRU 53

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 9-11 higher
  • Corn 3-5 higher
  • Wheat 1-2 higher
  • Meal 3.50-4.50 higher
  • Bean oil 20-30 higher
  • Rice 5-7 higher

 

Dollar and crude oil lower. Gold, silver, and stock market higher

 

Nikkei down 1.587%

Hang Seng up .311%

Shanghai Index down .093%

 

Weekly US jobless claims came out this morning at +5K to 333K expecting 335K

 

Better than expected Chinese trade data

  • China’s July exports +5.1% expecting +2% and vs. – 3.1% in June
  • China’s July imports +11%
  • China’s July trade surplus at $17.82 billion expecting $26.9 billion and vs. June trade surplus of $27.12 billion

 

Malaysian and Indonesian markets are closed for the remainder of the week.

 

China grain markets – beans up 19 yuan, meal yup 24 yuan , bean oil down 12 yuan, corn down 3 yuan, palm oil down 12 yuan, rapeseed up 20 yuan, rapeseed meal up 2 yuan , rapeseed oil down 30 yuan

 

China sold 89,928 tons of beans at auction today . They offered 500K tons

 

China’s General Administration of Customs

  • China imported 7.2 MMT of beans in July (record) vs. 6.93 MMT in June and up 22.7% from a year ago
  • China imported 34.7 MMT of beans between January – July down .7% from a year ago
  • China imported 840,000 tons of edible oils in July up 71.4% from a month ago and up 15.1% from a year ago
  • China imported 4.68 MMT of edible oils between Jan- July up 17% from a year ago

 

Chinese industry analysts – Chinese Crush Breakdown

  • For the week July 27-Aug 2 total Chinese crush volume at 1,391,500 tons down 1.09% from a week ago
  • For the week July 27 – Aug 2 total Chinese crush capacity utilization at 53.25% down 1.18% from a week ago
  • Total crush volume for July at 6.02844 MMT (record monthly high)
  • Total crush volume between Oct 1 2012 – Aug 2,2013 at 50,881,450 tons up 2.33% from a year ago
  • Total crush volume between Jan 1 2013- Aug 2,2013 at 35,318,870 tons up 5.09% from a year ago
  • As of Aug 2nd total China imported soybean stocks at 6.2738 MMT up 390,000 tons from a week ago
  • Total soybean imports between Jan – Aug estimated at 40.93 MMT up 4.04% from a year ago
  • Estimated August bean imports at 5.81 MMT
  • Estimated September bean imports at 4.1 MMT
  • Estimated October bean imports at 3.8-4.0 MMT
  • Estimated Nov bean imports at 6.5 MMT

 

 

Ministry of Commerce (MOC) estimated China’s Aug bean imports at 5.309 MMT

 

MOC estimated China’s July bean imports at 7.14 MMT

 

MOC estimated China’s July bean oil imports at 262,800 tons vs. previous estimate of 153,400 tons

 

MOC estimated China’s Aug bean oil imports at 103,300 tons

 

CNGOIC estimated China’s August bean imports at 6.04 MMT

 

Other analysts estimated China’s August and September bean imports at 5 MMT

 

CNGOIC estimated China’s ‘13/14 bean imports at 66.0 MMT

 

CONAB estimated Brazil’s ‘12/13 bean crop at 81.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

CONAB estimated Brazil’s ‘12/13 corn crop at 80.3 MMT vs. previous estimate of 79.1 MMT

 

South Korea NOFI bought 30K Indian soymeal for Nov shipment

 

Japan bought 52,590 tons of feed wheat and 39,795 tons of feed barley via SBS for November shipment

 

Japan bought 175,277 tons of milling wheat for Sept /Nov shipment . Breakdown

  • 29,372 tons of western white US
  • 30,372 tons of HRW US wheat
  • 23,320 tons of DNS US wheat
  • 60,859 tons of western red spring Canadian wheat
  • 31,356 tons of Australian white wheat

 

Rosario Grains Exchange estimated Argentina’s ‘13/14 wheat area at 3.8 MH vs. 3.6 MH a year ago

 

FC Stone estimated Brazil’s ‘13/14 bean crop at 83.28-85.57 MMT (record)

 

FC Stone estimated Brazil’s ‘13/14 bean area at 28.19-28.54 MH up 3% from a year ago

 

German Farmers Association estimated 2013 rapeseed crop at 5.5 MMT vs. 4.82 MMT a year ago

 

Russia exported 1.2 MMT of wheat in the first half of 2013 vs. 6.1 MMT a year ago

 

India government data showed India’s Aug 1st  wheat stocks at 40.4 MMT vs. 42.4 MMT a month ago

 

India’s government data showed India’s Aug 1st rice stocks at 29.2 MMT vs. 31.5 MMT a month ago

 

Hungary Farm Ministry estimated 2013 wheat crop at 5.1 MMT vs. 4.0 MMT a year ago

 

140 bean oil deliveries with the date at 8/02/13

 

104 bean oil receipts canceled yesterday afternoon

  • 73 out of ADM Decatur IL
  • 1 out of ADM Des Moines IA
  • 9 out of ADM Lincoln NE
  • 8 out of ADM Mexico MO
  • 13 out of Cargill Ackley IA

 

Favorable Midwest weather continues.

 

Today is the second day of the Goldman Sachs roll. 3 days remain.

 

Weekly US export sales report

  • Wheat ‘13/14 726,200 (expecting 500-750K)
  • Corn ‘12/13 290,100 ‘13/14 220,900 (expecting 600K – 1.0 M)
  • Beans ‘12/13 79,400 ‘13/14 1.02 M (expecting 550K – 1.05 M)
  • Meal ‘12/13 66,700 ‘13/14 68,900 (expecting 150-375K)
  • Bean oil ‘12/13 300 ‘13/14 2,200 (expecting 0-25K)

 

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 726,200 MT for delivery in the 2013/2014 marketing year were up 22 percent from the previous week, but down 22 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Brazil (169,500 MT, including 27,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Japan (122,500 MT), Taiwan (99,600 MT), and China (60,800 MT, including 55,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,800 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (24,700 MT). Exports of 773,400 MT were up 23 percent from the previous week and 17 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (180,300 MT), Brazil (121,500 MT), Mexico (100,300 MT), Nigeria (56,900 MT), Japan (54,300 MT), Taiwan (50,700 MT), and the Philippines (43,600 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 290,100 MT for 2012/2013 resulted as increases for Japan (169,000 MT, including 44,400 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 9,000 MT), Saudi Arabia (69,700 MT, including 65,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Venezuela (66,500 MT), Panama (28,000 MT), and Honduras (22,300 MT), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (101,200 MT). Net sales of 220,900 MT for 2013/2014 were primarily for Mexico (96,400 MT), unknown destinations (53,300 MT), Japan (30,300 MT), and Colombia (21,700 MT). Exports of 430,400 MT were up 31 percent from the previous week and 39 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (212,200 MT), Saudi Arabia (69,700 MT), Mexico (67,000 MT), and Venezuela (46,500 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales of 79,400 MT for 2012/2013 were up 1 percent from the previous week and 29 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases reported for Indonesia (23,700 MT), Taiwan (16,400 MT), Malaysia (10,000 MT), Japan (10,000 MT), and Thailand (8,000 MT). Net sales of 1,017,600 MT for 2013/2014 were primarily for unknown destinations (525,000 MT), China (381,000 MT), and Egypt (60,000 MT). Decreases were reported for Thailand (22,500 MT). Exports of 49,500 MT–a marketing-year low–were down 36 percent from the previous week and 45 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (18,800 MT), Mexico (10,600 MT), Vietnam (7,600 MT), Colombia (5,200 MT), and Taiwan (4,300 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales of 66,700 MT for 2012/2013 were up noticeably from the previous week, but down 1 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for the Dominican Republic (13,400 MT), Honduras (11,300 MT), the Philippines (10,500 MT), Canada (10,100 MT), Venezuela (7,700 MT, including 6,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Jamaica (7,000 MT), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (5,800 MT) and Indonesia (2,000 MT). Net sales of 68,900 MT for 2013/2014 were primarily for Mexico (17,100 MT), China (14,000 MT), and Panama (12,500 MT). Exports of 94,100 MT were down 39 percent from the previous week and 29 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Venezuela (31,700 MT), Mexico (20,500 MT), Canada (14,900 MT), the Dominican Republic (9,400 MT), and Japan (4,700 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 300 MT for 2012/2013 resulted as increases for South Korea (1,000 MT), Nicaragua (600 MT), and Panama (100 MT), were partially offset by decreases for Mexico (1,200 MT) and Canada (300 MT). Net sales of 2,200 MT for 2013/2014 were reported for Mexico. Exports of 3,300 MT were up noticeably from the previous week, but down 62 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Canada (1,000 MT)South Korea (1,000 MT), Nicaragua (600 MT), and Mexico (500 MT).

 

Upcoming Reports/events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CDT expecting +79 billion
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CDT
  • USDA crop production report comes out on August 12th
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services come out with their Malaysian Aug 1-10th palm oil export estimates on Aug 12
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board comes out on August 14th with their July data report. Based on a Reuters survey – estimates for the report
    • Palm oil stocks expecting 1.60 MMT vs. 1.65 MMT in June
    • Palm oil output expecting 1.56 MMT vs. 1.42 MMT in June
    • Palm oil exports expecting 1.45 MMT vs. 1.41 MMT in June
  • Last trading day for August futures is Aug 14th
  • NOPA July crush report comes out on Aug 15th at 11 am CDT
  • Based on a Reuters poll of 15 analysts . 2013 Canadian crop estimates – Stats Can comes out on Aug 21st with their crop report
    • All wheat average estimate 29.7 MMT , range of estimates are 27.4-30.0 MMT. Vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 29.4 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 26.3 MMT
    • Durum wheat average estimate 5.0 MMY, range of estimates are 4.8-5.1 MMT vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 4.9 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 4.5 MMT
    • Canola average estimate 15.0 MMT , range of estimates are 14.6-15.3 MMT. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 14.1 MMT and Stats Can 5 year average of 13.2 MMT
    • Oats average estimate 3.2 MMT , range of estimates 3.0-3.3 MMT vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 3.2 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 3.1 MMT

 

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg