News From The Grain Floor

ood morning.

 

They say that the best weapon is the one you never have to fire. I respectfully disagree. I prefer the weapon you only have to fire once.

Tony Stark

 

USDA announced 220K new crop US beans sold to China.

 

Goldman Sachs roll begins today, ends Tuesday August 13th. They will be rolling long September wheat and corn positions into December.

 

Overnight closes

  • SX up 2 ¾ at 1170
  • CZ up 2 at 461 ¼
  • WU down 2 ½ at 648
  • SMZ up 2.30 at 348.00
  • BOZ down 24 at 4235
  • RRU up 4 at 1573.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 14,977
  • CZ 10,478
  • WU 4,959
  • SMZ 7,161
  • BOZ 8,142
  • RRU 14

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 2-4 higher
  • Corn 2-3 higher
  • Wheat 2-3 lower
  • Meal 1.50-2.50 higher
  • Bean oil 20-30 lower
  • Rice 3-5 higher

 

Crude oil lower. Gold, silver, stock market, and dollar lower.

 

Nikkei down 4.001%

Hang Seng down 1.527%

Shanghai Index down .668%

Most world stock markets are lower.

 

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday afternoon

  • Crude a draw of 3.7 MB expecting a draw of 1.2 MB
  • Gas a draw of 971,000 expecting a draw of 800,000
  • Distillates a build of 1.5 MB expecting a draw of 100,000

 

Lack of fresh news this morning.

 

Palm oil down 34. Talk Malaysia July palm oil production increase more than expected.

 

China grain markets sharply lower except rapeseed was higher.

 

Iraq bought 150K tons of wheat for Aug/Sept shipment . 100K tons from Australia and 50K tons from Canada

 

Japan bought 52,590 tons of feed wheat via SBS tender

 

Japan seeks 120K tons of feed wheat and 200K tons of feed barley via SBS tender

 

South Korea bought 56,049 tons of China, Thailand, and Australian rice for Oct/Dec shipment

 

South Korea seeks 15K tons of optional origin rice for Oct/Dec shipment

 

Cordonnier said late planted US corn is at risk of early frost damage in north and northwest US corn belt due to development delays. If we see early frosts in September we may see corn yield at 150.0 BPA and in an “ideal situation” US corn yields will be about 160.0 BPA. Late developing soybeans are at risk also worst case scenario we can see yields at 40.0 BPA or lower, best case can see yields of 43.5-44.0 BPA – Bloomberg

 

ANZ Banking Group estimated Australia’s ‘13/14 wheat crop at 26.5 MMT vs. USDA estimate of 25.5 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 crop of 22.0 MMT

 

Solvent Extractors Association said India exported 177,011 tons of oilmeal in July down 37% from a year ago

 

Solvent Extractors Association said India exported 107,038 tons of meal in July down 36% from a year ago

 

Solvent Extractors Association said India exported 40,902 tons of rapeseed meal in July down 11% from a year ago

 

Solvent Extractors Association said India exported 21,023 tons of oilmeal to South Korea in July down 71% from a year ago

 

Solvent Extractors Association said India exported 7,689 tons of oilmeal to Vietnam  in July vs. 26,126 tons a year ago

 

Solvent Extractors Association said India exported 1.03 MMT of oilmeal between April 1 – July 31st down 24% from a year ago

 

Manitoba, Canada winter wheat harvest has started. Wheat is good quality with good protein levels . Winter wheat yields of 60-80 BPA being reported.

 

Favorable US weather continues.

 

21 wheat receipts canceled yesterday afternoon by the Andersons

 

105 new ethanol receipts were registered yesterday afternoon

 

34 rice receipts canceled yesterday afternoon

 

I have an appointment this afternoon and will not be putting out an afternoon recap. I apologize for the inconvenience. – Kate

 

Deliveries

  • Bean oil 75 with the date at 8/02/13
  • Ethanol 105 with the date at 8/02/13
  • No beans or meal

 

Estimates for Monday’s USDA report

 

2013 US corn and soybean production estimates (25 analysts surveyed)

  • 2013 US corn crop average estimate 13.980 BB, range of estimates are 13.485 – 14.269 BB. USDA July estimate was 13.95 BB and 2012 US corn crop was 10.780 BB
  • 2013 US corn yield average estimate 157.72 BPA , range of estimates are 154.0-161.2 BPA. USDA July estimate was 156.5 BPA and 2012 US corn yield was 123.4 BPA
  • 2013 US bean crop average estimate 3.338 BB, range of estimates are 3.22-3.40 BB. USDA July estimate was 3.42 BB and 2012 US bean crop was 3.015 BB
  • 2013 US bean yield average estimate 43.472 BPA, rage of estimates are 42.0-44.4 BPA. USDA July estimate was 44.5 BPA and 2012 US bean yield was 39.6 BPA

 

2013 US wheat production estimates

  • 2013 All wheat crop (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate 2.112 BB, range of estimates are 2.025-2.148 BB. USDA July estimate was 2.113 BB and 2012 US all wheat crop was 2.269 BB
  • 2013 All winter wheat crop (18 analysts surveyed) average estimate 1.548 BB, range of estimates are 1.51-1.588 BB. USDA July estimate was 1.543 BB and 2012 US all winter wheat crop was 1.645 BB
  • 2013 HRW wheat crop (14 analysts surveyed) average estimate .792 BB, range of estimates are .764-.803 BB. USDA July estimate was .793 BB and 2012 US HRW wheat crop was 1.004 BB
  • 2013 SRW wheat crop (14 analysts surveyed) average estimate .540 BB, range of estimates are .535-.550. USDA July estimate was 5.39 BB and 2012 US SRW wheat crop was .420 BB
  • 2013 western white wheat crop (14 analysts surveyed) average estimate .217 BB, range of estimates are .205-.248 BB. USDA July estimate was .211 BB and 2012 US western white wheat crop was .222 BB
  • 2013 other spring wheat crop (18 analysts surveyed) average estimate .503 BB, range of estimates are .435-.538 BB. USDA July estimate was .513 BB and 2012 US other spring wheat crop was .542 BB
  • 2013 durum wheat crop (18 analysts surveyed) average estimate .059 BB, range of estimates are .047-.080 BB. USDA July estimate was .058 BB and 2012 US durum wheat crop was .082 BB

 

Global ending stocks estimates

  • ‘12/13 corn ending stocks (10 analysts surveyed) average estimate 124.042 MMT, range of estimates are 122.82 – 126.00 MMT. USDA July estimate was 123.57 MMT
  • ‘12/13 bean ending stocks  (10 analysts surveyed) average estimate 61.417 MMT, range of estimates are 60.25-62.5 MMT. USDA July estimate was 61.52 MMT
  • ‘13/14 wheat ending stocks (11 analysts surveyed) average estimate 171.838 MMT, range of estimates are 168.0-181.11 MMT. USDA July estimate 172.38 MMT
  • ‘13/14 corn ending stocks (11 analysts surveyed) average estimate 151.09 MMT, range of estimates are 148.0-155.0 MMT. USDA July estimate was 150.97 MMT
  • ‘13/14 bean ending stocks (11 analysts surveyed) average estimate 73.591 MMT, range of estimates are 68.48-75.1 MMT. USDA July estimate was 74.120 MMT

 

US ending stock estimates

  • ‘12/13 corn ending stocks (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate .725 BB, range of estimates are .537-.819 BB. USDA July estimate was .729 BB
  • ‘12/13 bean ending stocks (19 analysts surveyed) average estimate .122 BB, range of estimates are .109-.135 BB. USDA July estimate was .125 BB
  • ‘13/14 wheat ending stocks (18 analysts surveyed) average estimate .573 BB, range of estimates are .489-.653 BB. July USDA estimate was .576 BB
  • ‘13/14 corn ending stocks (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate 1.971 BB, range of estimates are 1.498 – 2.431 BB. July USDA estimate was 1.959 BB
  • ‘13/14 bean ending stocks (19 analysts surveyed) average estimate .263 BB, range of estimates are .131-.306 BB. July USDA estimate was .295 BB

 

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CZ 614,025 open, up 2,489
  • Total corn 1,178,103 open, up 2,399
  • SQ 2,296 open, down 314
  • SX 313,269 open, up 1,121
  • Total beans 496,822 open, up 3,034
  • SMQ 2,784 open, down 240
  • SMZ 146,935 open, up 1,767
  • Total meal 253,272 open, up 2,666
  • BOQ 1,630 open, down 463
  • BOZ 181,025 open, up 1,920
  • Total bean oil 321,164 open, down 930
  • WU 161,005 open, down 2,042
  • WZ 170,449 open, down 1,002
  • Total wheat 409,072 open, down 1,006
  • KC WU 70,007 open, down 1,437
  • KC WZ 48,374 open, up 1,149
  • Total KC wheat 138,118 open, up 93

 

 

Upcoming Reports/events

  • Indonesian palm oil markets closed all this week. Trading resumes Monday Aug 12th
  • Weekly DOE #s come out today at 930 am CDT expecting
    • Crude a draw of 1.5 MB
    • Gas a draw of 500,000
    • Distillates unchanged
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production comes out today at 930 am CDT
  • Malaysian markets closed half day Wednesday through Friday. Trading resumes Monday August 12th.
  • China to auction 500K tons of beans from reserves tomorrow.
  • CONAB comes out tomorrow with their Brazilian crop estimates. Previous estimates were
    • ‘12/13 bean crop at 81.5 MMT (record)
    • ‘12/13 corn crop at 79.1 MMT (record)
    • ‘13/14 wheat crop at 5.61 MMT
    • ‘12/13 corn exports at 15.0 MMT
    • ‘12/13 beans exports at 37.8 MMT
    • ‘12/13 cotton crop at 1.3 MMT
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT
  • USDA crop production report comes out on August 12th
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services come out with their Malaysian Aug 1-10th palm oil export estimates on Aug 12
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board comes out on August 14th with their July data report. Based on a Reuters survey – estimates for the report
    • Palm oil stocks expecting 1.60 MMT vs. 1.65 MMT in June
    • Palm oil output expecting 1.56 MMT vs. 1.42 MMT in June
    • Palm oil exports expecting 1.45 MMT vs. 1.41 MMT in June
  • Last trading day for August futures is Aug 14th
  • NOPA July crush report comes out on Aug 15th at 11 am CDT
  • Based on a Reuters poll of 15 analysts . 2013 Canadian crop estimates – Stats Can comes out on Aug 21st with their crop report
    • All wheat average estimate 29.7 MMT , range of estimates are 27.4-30.0 MMT. Vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 29.4 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 26.3 MMT
    • Durum wheat average estimate 5.0 MMY, range of estimates are 4.8-5.1 MMT vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 4.9 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 4.5 MMT
    • Canola average estimate 15.0 MMT , range of estimates are 14.6-15.3 MMT. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 14.1 MMT and Stats Can 5 year average of 13.2 MMT
    • Oats average estimate 3.2 MMT , range of estimates 3.0-3.3 MMT vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 3.2 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 3.1 MMT

 

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg