News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

What Good Is Money If It Can’t Inspire Terror In Your Fellow Man?

C. Montgomery Burns

 

Informa comes out today at 1030 am CDT with their 2013 US crop estimates  . Previous estimates from Informa were  

  • All wheat crop at 2.016 BB
  • All wheat yield at 44.1 BPA
  • Corn crop at 14.259 BB
  • Corn yield at 160.0 BPA
  • Bean crop at 3.376 BB
  • Bean yield at 43.9 BPA

 

Overnight closes

  • SX down 7 ¼ at 1174 ¼
  • CZ down 5 ¼ at 458 ¼
  • WU down 3 at 657 ½
  • SMZ down 4.00 at 350.20
  • BOZ down 8 at 4274
  • RRU up 2  at 1582

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 20,885
  • CZ 24,009
  • WU 7,931
  • SMZ 8,631
  • BOZ 6,134
  • RRU 69

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 6-8 lower
  • Corn 4-6 lower
  • Wheat 2-4 lower
  • Meal 3-5 lower
  • Bean oil steady to 10 lower
  • Rice 1-2 higher

 

Dollar higher. Crude, gold, silver, and stock market are lower.

 

Nikkei down 1.439%

Hang Seng up .140%

Shanghai Index up 1.043%

 

Palm oil down 20. Chinese grain markets lower except corn was higher

 

China to auction 500K tons of beans from reserves on Thursday.

 

Hearing China bought 1 cargo of Argentine beans for Aug/Sept shipment on Friday

 

Hearing China bought 1 cargo of Brazilian beans for March shipment on Friday

 

Hearing China bought 2 cargoes of US beans for Nov shipment on Friday

 

Jordan seeks 100K optional origin wheat and 100K optional origin barley for March/April shipment

 

Safras e Mercado said as of Friday Brazil had sold 84% of their old crop beans vs. 95% a year ago and vs. average of 82%

 

Safras e Mercado said as of Friday Brazil has sold 17% of their new crop beans vs. 39% a year ago and vs. 15% average

 

Doane Advisory Services estimated 2013 US corn crop at 14.269 BB vs. USDA estimate of 13.95 BB

 

Doane Advisory Services estimated 2013 US corn yield at 161.2 BPA vs. USDA estimate of 156.5 BPA

 

Doane Advisory Services estimated 2013 US bean crop at 3.333 BB vs. USDA estimate at 3.42 BB

 

Doane Advisory Services estimated 2013 US bean yield at 43.2 BPA vs. USDA estimate of 44.5 BPA

 

Green Plains to temporarily shut down 9 or its 10 corn ethanol plants for maintenance over the next 2 months

 

Abiove estimated Brazil’s ‘13/14 bean exports at a record high 39.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 39.0 MMT

 

Aboive estimated Brazil’s ‘13/14 bean production at a record high 81.6 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

Aboive estimated Brazil’s ‘13/14 bean ending stocks at 2.846 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

German lock workers on strike may block some canals

 

Ukraine to export 200K tons of wheat to Bangladesh in ‘13/14

 

Rainfall in Midwest over the weekend a little disappointing , but good chance for rains over the next two weeks

 

48 bean oil receipts canceled Friday afternoon . 8 out of ADM Decatur IL and 40 out of Cargill Ackley IA

 

Deliveries

  • Bean oil 782 with the date at 8/01/13 – House Bunge stopped 140 , House  DB stopped 57

 

Weekly COT supplemental report from Friday. Large Spec positions as of July 30th. Futures and options combined

  • Wheat short 74,502
  • KC Wheat short 14,755
  • Corn short 181,805
  • Beans long 31,164
  • Meal long 13,746
  • Bean oil short 63,422

 

Open interest as of Friday’s close

  • CZ 607,129 , up 6,265
  • Total corn  1,169,844 open, up 2,463
  • SQ 3,285 open, down 587
  • SX 313,283 open, down 403
  • Total beans 492,135 open, down 278
  • SMQ 3,542 open, down 1,028
  • SMZ 146,048 open, down 1932
  • Total meal 252,417 open, down 5,802
  • BOQ 3,560 open, down 1,351
  • BOZ 180,021 open, down 838
  • Total bean oil 322,959 open, down 5,170
  • WU 166,273 open, down 6,473
  • Total wheat 402,319 open, down 4,523
  • KC WU 73,421 open, down 1,644
  • Total wheat 138,392 open, up 130

 

Upcoming Reports/events

  • Indonesian palm oil markets closed all this week.
  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out today at 10 am CDT
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CDT expecting corn and bean conditions to remain steady to up 1% from a week ago
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CDT
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins Wednesday . Rolling long Sept corn and wheat positions into Dec
  • Malaysian markets closed on Aug 8-9th for holiday
  • CONAB comes out on August 8th with their Brazilian crop estimates. Previous estimates were
    • ‘12/13 bean crop at 81.5 MMT (record)
    • ‘12/13 corn crop at 79.1 MMT (record)
    • ‘13/14 wheat crop at 5.61 MMT
    • ‘12/13 corn exports at 15.0 MMT
    • ‘12/13 beans exports at 37.8 MMT
    • ‘12/13 cotton crop at 1.3 MMT
  • USDA crop production report comes out on August 12th
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services come out with their Malaysian Aug 1-10th palm oil export estimates on Aug 12
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board comes out on August 14th with their July data report. Based on a Reuters survey – estimates for the report
    • Palm oil stocks expecting 1.60 MMT vs. 1.65 MMT in June
    • Palm oil output expecting 1.56 MMT vs. 1.42 MMT in June
    • Palm oil exports expecting 1.45 MMT vs. 1.41 MMT in June
  • Last trading day for August futures is Aug 14th
  • Based on a Reuters poll of 15 analysts . 2013 Canadian crop estimates – Stats Can comes out on Aug 21st with their crop report
    • All wheat average estimate 29.7 MMT , range of estimates are 27.4-30.0 MMT. Vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 29.4 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 26.3 MMT
    • Durum wheat average estimate 5.0 MMY, range of estimates are 4.8-5.1 MMT vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 4.9 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 4.5 MMT
    • Canola average estimate 15.0 MMT , range of estimates are 14.6-15.3 MMT. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 14.1 MMT and Stats Can 5 year average of 13.2 MMT
    • Oats average estimate 3.2 MMT , range of estimates 3.0-3.3 MMT vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 3.2 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 3.1 MMT

 

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg