News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

The Ministry of Peace concerns itself with war, the Ministry of Truth with lies, the Ministry of Love with torture and the Ministry of Plenty with starvation. These contradictions are not accidental , nor do they result from ordinary hypocrisy: they are deliberate exercises in doublethink.

 

– George Orwell

 

Overnight closes

  • SQ up 3 ¼ at 1361
  • SX up 6 at 1198 ½
  • CZ down 1 at 466
  • WU up 1 ¾ at 659 ¾
  • SMQ up 5.20 at 430.60
  • SMZ up 1.90 at 361.10
  • BOQ up 19 at 4268
  • BOZ up 16 at 4308
  • RRU down 1.50 at 1584

 

Overnight volume

  • SQ 319
  • SX 11,549
  • CZ 11,195
  • WU 5,825
  • SMQ 705
  • SMZ 4,862
  • BOQ 683
  • BOZ 8,367
  • RRU 29

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 5-7 higher
  • Corn steady to 2 lower
  • Wheat 1-2 higher
  • Meal 4-5 higher
  • Bean oil 15-25 higher
  • Rice 1-2 lower

 

Dollar and stock market lower. Silver higher. Crude and gold lower.

 

Nikkei up 3.287%

Hang Seng up .463%

Shanghai index up .015%

 

US July unemployment came out this morning

  • July non farm payroll at +162K expecting +185K
  • July unemployment rate at 7.4% expecting 7.5% and vs. 7.6% in June
  • June non farm payrolls revised to 188K from 195K

 

Palm oil down 2. Chinese grain markets – beans down 3 yuan, meal down 11 yuan, bean oil up 10 yuan, corn down 15 yuan, palm oil up 54 yuan, rapeseed up 1 yuan, rapeseed meal up 1 yuan, and rapeseed oil up 34 yuan

 

Chinese industry analysts – said China beans are lower on talk China will sell beans from reserves next week , said China corn is lower due to high inventories in south ports, said China palm oil is higher due to good demand .

 

China confirmed they will sell 500K tons of 2010 beans from reserves on Thursday.

 

South Korea Nofi canceled tender for 140K optional origin corn for Jan shipment , expecting corn prices to decline further

 

Brazil bought 50-60K tons of US HRW wheat yesterday for August shipment. Brazil has bought about 500K US wheat over the past week

 

China’s COFCO bought 120K Ukraine corn for Oct / Nov shipment

 

Hearing China bought 2 US bean cargoes for Oct/Nov shipment yesterday

 

Hearing China bought 1 Brazilian bean cargo for March shipment yesterday

 

Thailand bought 110K optional origin feed wheat (possibly Black Sea origin) for Oct/Nov shipment

 

Vietnam bought 150K South American corn for Dec shipment

 

Bangladesh bought 40K tons of India wheat

 

Vietnam corn needs are mostly covered through December

 

Pakistan is eyeing Russian wheat

 

South Korea bought 32K tons of Chinese rice for Nov shipment

 

Thai government sold 210K tons of rice in 2 tenders in July. Thailand was hoping to sell 1 MMT of rice in July .

 

Russia’s Grain Union estimated August wheat exports at 2.0-2.5 MMT vs. 1.7 MMT in July

 

Russia’s Grain Union estimated August grain exports at 2.5-3.0 MMT vs. 2.0 MMT in July

 

Kazakhstan Ag Min estimated 2013 grain crop at 16.3 MMT vs. previous estimate of 15.0 MMT

 

Kazakhstan Ag Min said 67% of grain crops are in good condition

 

25 bean oil receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of Cargill Ackley IA

 

34 rice receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon

 

Heavy rains over the past 2 weeks in India have damaged some bean and cotton crops in central and western areas

 

Favorable weather in US Midwest continues

 

Nov bean April 24th low was 1186 ½

 

Dec meal July low was 357.00

 

Dec meal 100 day moving average is 361.00

 

Dec meal 200 day moving average is 363.60

 

FC Stone 2013 US Crop estimates from yesterday – see attachment for FC Stone state by state survey

  • FC Stone estimated 2013 US corn crop at 13.933 BB vs. USDA estimate of 13.95 BB
  • FC Stone estimated 2013 US corn yield at 157.0 BPA vs. USDA estimate of 156.5 BPA
  • FC Stone estimated 2013 US bean crop at 3.309 BB vs. USDA estimate of 3.420 BB
  • FC Stone estimated 2013 US bean yield at 43.0 BPA vs. USDA estimate of 44.5 BPA

 

Brazil Trade Ministry – July exports

  • Beans 5.66 MMT vs. 6.5 MMT in June and vs. 4.13 MMT a year ago
  • Meal 1.60 MMT vs. 1.27 MMT in June and vs. 1.54 MMT a year ago
  • Bean oil 109,900 tons vs. 104,885 tons in June and vs. 152,400 tons a year ago
  • Corn 733,300 tons vs. 276,300 tons in June and vs. 1.70 MMT a year ago

 

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange Weekly Report

  • Argentine corn harvest is 96.5% complete vs. 93.2% a week ago and vs. 95.7% a year ago
  • Argentine ‘12/13 corn crop estimated at 24.8 MMT unchanged from previous estimate vs. Argentine government estimate of 32.1 MMT
  • Argentine wheat planting is 95.3% complete vs. 92.7% a week ago and vs. 94.0% a year ago
  • Argentine ‘13/14 wheat area estimated at 3.9 MH unchanged from previous estimate

 

Deliveries

  • Bean oil 70 with the date at 7/29/13 – ADM house issued 4
  • No beans
  • No meal

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CZ 601,549 open, up 11,333
  • Total corn 1,168,201 open, up 3,317
  • SQ 3,872 open, down 1,680
  • SX 314,292 open, down 1,402
  • Total beans 493,109 open, up 1,274
  • SMQ 4,570 open, down 895
  • SMZ 148,334 open, up 176
  • Total meal 258,643 open, up 1,030
  • BOQ 4,911 open, down 3,299
  • BOZ 180,996 open, down 54
  • Total bean oil 328,400 open, down 5,289
  • WU 173,907 open, down 907
  • Total wheat 409,372 open, up 3,891
  • KC WU 75,654 open, down 2,106
  • Total KC 138,861 open, down 949

 

Upcoming Reports/events

  • Hearing Informa comes out today or early next week with their US crop estimates
  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CDT
  • Indonesian palm oil markets closed all next week.
  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out on Monday at 10 am CDT
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CDT
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins Wednesday . Rolling long Sept corn and wheat positions into Dec
  • Malaysian markets closed on Aug 8-9th for holiday
  • CONAB comes out on August 8th with their Brazilian crop estimates.
  • USDA crop production report comes out on August 12th
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services come out with their Malaysian Aug 1-10th palm oil export estimates on Aug 12
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board comes out on August 14th with their July data report. Based on a Reuters survey – estimates for the report
    • Palm oil stocks expecting 1.60 MMT down 3% from June
    • Palm oil output expecting 1.56 MMT up 10% from June
    • Palm oil exports expecting 1.45 MMT up 3% from June
  • Last trading day for August futures is Aug 14th
  • Based on a Reuters poll of 15 analysts . 2013 Canadian crop estimates – Stats Can comes out on Aug 21st with their crop report
    • All wheat average estimate 29.7 MMT , range of estimates are 27.4-30.0 MMT. Vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 29.4 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 26.3 MMT
    • Durum wheat average estimate 5.0 MMY, range of estimates are 4.8-5.1 MMT vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 4.9 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 4.5 MMT
    • Canola average estimate 15.0 MMT , range of estimates are 14.6-15.3 MMT. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 14.1 MMT and Stats Can 5 year average of 13.2 MMT
    • Oats average estimate 3.2 MMT , range of estimates 3.0-3.3 MMT vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 3.2 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 3.1 MMT

 

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg