News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

Never dream with thy hand on the helm.

Herman Melville

 

FC Stone comes out today after the close with their US crop estimates.

 

Today is the beginning of the new month

 

Overnight closes

  • SQ up 9 ¾ at 1383 ¾
  • SX down ¾ at 1205 ½
  • CZ down 3 ¾ at 475 ¼
  • WU down 3 ¼ at 661
  • SMQ up 1.90 at 437.00
  • SMZ down 1.20 at 364.00
  • BOQ up 91 at 4300
  • BOZ up 32 at 4302
  • RRU down 7.50 at 1575

 

Overnight volume

  • SQ 605
  • SX 12,312
  • CZ 18,880
  • WU 6,257
  • SMQ 344
  • SMZ 5,066
  • BOQ 3,510
  • BOZ 10,781
  • RRU 167

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 1-2 lower
  • Corn 2-4 lower
  • Wheat 2-4 lower
  • Meal .50-1.50 lower
  • Bean oil 30-40 higher
  • Rice  6-8 lower

 

Dollar, stock market, gold, silver, and crude oil are higher this morning.

 

Nikkei up 2.469%

Hang Seng up .937%

Shanghai Index up 1.773%

Most world stock markets higher

 

July mfg PMI came out last night/this morning.

  • China’s official at 50.3% expecting 49.8% vs. June PMI of 50.1%
  • China’s HSBC final at 47.7% (11 month low) vs. June of 48.2%
  • Eurozone 50.3% expecting 50.1% vs. June of 48.8%
  • German 50.7% expecting 50.3% vs. June of 48.6%
  • UK 54.6% expecting 52.9% vs. June of 52.9%
  • France at 49.7% expecting 49.8% vs. June of 48.4%
  • Italy at 50.4% expecting 49.7% vs. June of 49.1%

 

Weekly US jobless claims came out this morning at – 19K to 326K expecting 345K

 

Fitch downgraded Malaysia’s credit rating

 

Palm oil up 24. Chinese grain markets – bean up 47 yuan, meal up 23 yuan, bean oil up 2 yuan, corn down 2 yuan, palm oil down 10 yuan, rapeseed down 6 yuan, rapeseed meal up 15 yuan, rapeseed oil down 56 yuan

 

Surveyor SGS estimated Malaysia’s July palm oil exports at 1.386 MMT up 5% from June

 

Trade sources said Brazil has bought 400K tons of US HRW wheat for August shipment over the past week.

 

Brazil seeking more US HRW wheat for August shipment

 

Philippines bought 110K tons of US meal for Oct-Dec shi-pment

 

Hearing China bought 2 Argentine bean cargoes yesterday for September shipment.

 

TALK China needs to buy more soybeans for September shipment

 

South Korea Kocopia canceled tender for 55K optional origin corn for Nov shipment due to quality issues.

 

Japan bought 178,212 tons of milling wheat for October shipment . Breakdown

  • 89,579 tons of US western white wheat- 1st time Japan bought western white wheat in 10 weeks.
  • 31,721 tons of US dark northern spring US wheat
  • 23,282 tons of western red spring Canadian wheat
  • 33,630 tons of Australian white wheat

 

Japan bought 1,000 tons of feed wheat via SBS tender

 

Ukraine Ag Min estimated ‘13/14 grain exports at 28.0 MMT, including 9 MMT of wheat and 16 MMT of corn  vs. 23 MMT in ‘12/13 and vs. previous estimate of 26.0 MMT

 

CBH estimated ‘13/14 western Australian grain crop at 9-10 MMT vs. long term average of 10.6 MMT and vs. 9.5 MMT in ‘12/13

 

Canadian attaché estimated 2013 wheat, oats, corn, and barley crop at 54.0 MMT vs. 51.0 MMT in 2012. Canadian wheat crop seen up 8% this year and oat crop seen up 18% this year .

 

Xinhua news agency said China found results in US SRW wheat

 

Czech attaché estimated 2013 total grain output at 6.5 MMT up 16% from a year ago

 

Czech attaché estimated 2013 rapeseed crop at a record high of 1.3 MMT

 

Pakistan ‘13/14 wheat crop estimated at 24.0 MMT vs. 23.3 a year ago (lowest in 4 years) and vs. ‘11/12 crop of 25.0 MMT

 

Pakistan ‘13/14 wheat imports estimated at 800K – 1.0 MMT (most in 5 years) vs. 200K in ‘12/13

 

There are reports circulating about the impact of an early frost.

 

27 bean oil receipts canceled yesterday afternoon out of Ackley IA

 

Favorable US Midwest weather continues.

 

Favorable crop weather in forecast for Northeast Chinese province of Heilongjiang

 

Today is the last day of the Rogers roll.

 

Deliveries

  • Bean oil 611 with the date at 7/29/13 – ADM house stopped 4
  • No beans
  • No meal

 

Weekly US exports sales report

  • Wheat – ‘13/14 596,900 (expecting 500-700K)
  • Corn – ‘12/13 134K , ‘13/14 1.09 M (expecting 475-875K)
  • Beans – ‘12/13 78,500 ‘13/14 1.03 M (expecting 400-800K)
  • Meal – ‘12/13 11,100 ‘13/14 320,300 (expecting 125-275K)
  • Bean oil – ‘12/13 11,300 ‘13/14 200 (expecting 0-20K)
  • Cotton – ‘12/13 33,600 ‘13/14 43,700

 

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 596,900 MT for delivery in the 2013/2014 marketing year were down 10 percent from the previous week and 36 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for China (129,900 MT, including 110,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,400 MT), Nigeria (95,000 MT, including 8,800 MT switched from unknown destinations), Brazil (88,300 MT), Mexico (80,800 MT), and Colombia (70,300 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (122,700 MT), Bolivia (7,000 MT), Indonesia (3,000 MT), and Chile (2,000 MT). Exports of 627,400 MT were up 11 percent from the previous week, but down 7 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were to China (186,300 MT), Mexico (118,200 MT), Nigeria (95,500 MT), the Philippines (55,000 MT), Japan (45,900 MT), Colombia (33,500 MT), and Brazil (33,000 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 134,000 MT for 2012/2013 resulted as increases for Japan (98,000 MT, including 48,400 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,700 MT), Taiwan (39,400 MT), China (25,000 MT), Venezuela (17,800 MT, including 19,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 3,200 MT), and Mexico (15,400 MT), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (59,300 MT) and the French West Indies (4,000 MT). Net sales of 1,091,200 MT for 2013/2014 were primarily for Mexico (393,800 MT), unknown destinations (306,200 MT), China (208,600 MT), and Japan (123,300 MT). Exports of 328,100 MT were up 37 percent from the previous week and 4 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (127,000 MT), Mexico (118,800 MT), Venezuela (62,800 MT), and El Salvador (7,000 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales of 78,500 MT for 2012/2013 were down 39 percent from the previous week, but up 9 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Taiwan (49,800 MT), Mexico (12,000 MT), Indonesia (9,900 MT), Vietnam (3,500 MT), and Japan (2,400 MT). Net sales of 1,030,900 MT for 2013/2014 were primarily for China (558,000 MT), unknown destinations (302,000 MT), South Korea (55,000 MT), and Mexico (46,000 MT). Exports of 77,500 MT were down 6 percent from the previous week and 22 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (33,100 MT), Mexico (26,900 MT), Taiwan (6,900 MT), Vietnam (4,700 MT), and Indonesia (2,900 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales of 11,100 MT for 2012/2013 resulted as increases for Canada (69,400 MT), the Dominican Republic (12,200 MT), Guatemala (12,200 MT, including 10,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 700 MT), Colombia (10,000 MT), El Salvador (9,000 MT, including 4,600 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Trinidad (6,000 MT), were more than offset by decreases for the Philippines (78,000 MT), Venezuela (15,000 MT), and Peru (15,000 MT). Net sales of 320,300 MT for 2013/2014 were primarily for the Philippines (168,400 MT), unknown destinations (68,000 MT), and Egypt (36,000 MT). Exports of 152,900 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and 33 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Ecuador (26,300 MT), Mexico (25,600 MT), Guatemala (23,200 MT), the Dominican Republic (19,300 MT), and Canada (18,800 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 11,300 MT for 2012/2013 resulted as increases for Germany (6,000 MT), Norway (5,000 MT), and Mexico (500 MT), were partially offset by decreases for Canada (400 MT). Net sales of 200 MT for 2013/2014 were reported for Mexico. Exports of 1,100 MT were up 25 percent from the previous week, but down 89 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Canada (500 MT), Mexico (300 MT), and the Dominican Republic (200 MT).
  • Cotton – Net Upland sales of 33,600 running bales for 2012/2013 were down 1 percent from the previous week and 11 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Vietnam (18,000 RB, including 200 RB switched from Japan), China (8,100 RB), Mexico (3,600 RB), Ecuador (1,600 RB), and Guatemala (900 RB, switched from El Salvador). Decreases were reported for El Salvador (900 RB) and Indonesia (800 RB). Net sales of 43,700 RB for 2013/2014 were primarily for Indonesia (27,300 RB), Mexico (19,100 RB), and Turkey (8,100 RB). Decreases were reported for China (34,400 RB). Exports of 96,100 RB were down 21 percent from the previous week and 33 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (37,400 RB), Vietnam (11,100 RB), South Korea (6,800 RB), Bangladesh (6,700 RB), and Mexico (5,700 RB). Net American Pima sales reductions of 1,300 RB for 2012/2013 resulted as increases for Thailand (100 RB, switched from Japan), were more than offset by decreases for China (1,300 RB) and Japan (100 RB). Net sales of 6,300 RB for 2013/2014 were primarily for China (4,000 RB), India (900 RB), and Bangladesh (600 RB). Exports of 7,100 RB were down 34 percent from the previous week and 31 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (4,100 RB), Indonesia (1,500 RB), and Egypt (400 RB).

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CZ 589,496 open, up 12,653
  • Total corn 1,164,868 open, down 4,171
  • SQ 5,554 open, down 1,461
  • SX 316,003 open, up 2,725
  • Total beans 492,244 open, up 1,990
  • SMQ 5,465 open, down 1,869
  • SMZ 148,410 open, down 1,365
  • Total meal 257,660 open, down 4,588
  • BOQ 8,210 open, down 1,816
  • BOZ 181,160 open, up 3,186
  • Total bean oil 333,805 open, down 325
  • WU 175,090 open, down 4,727
  • Total wheat 406,607 open, up 1,588
  • KC WU 77,764 open, down 17
  • Total KC Wheat 139,822 open, up 1,640

 

Upcoming Reports/events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CDT  expecting +57 B
  • US July unemployment comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT
  • Hearing Informa comes out tomorrow or early next week with their US crop estimates
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CDT
  • CONAB comes out on August 8th with their Brazilian crop estimates.
  • USDA crop production report comes out on August 12th
  • Based on a Reuters poll of 15 analysts . 2013 Canadian crop estimates – Stats Can comes out on Aug 21st with their crop report
    • All wheat average estimate 29.7 MMT , range of estimates are 27.4-30.0 MMT. Vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 29.4 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 26.3 MMT
    • Durum wheat average estimate 5.0 MMY, range of estimates are 4.8-5.1 MMT vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 4.9 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 4.5 MMT
    • Canola average estimate 15.0 MMT , range of estimates are 14.6-15.3 MMT. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 14.1 MMT and Stats Can 5 year average of 13.2 MMT
    • Oats average estimate 3.2 MMT , range of estimates 3.0-3.3 MMT vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 3.2 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 3.1 MMT

 

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg