News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

I can spend somebody else’s money on somebody else. And if I spend somebody else’s money on somebody else, I’m not concerned about how much it is, and I’m not concerned about what I get. And that’s government. And that’s close to 40% of our national income.

Milton Friedman

 

Today is month end .

 

USDA announced 120K tons of new crop US beans sold to unknown .

 

Overnight closes

  • SQ up 2 ½ at 1352 ½
  • SX up 1 ½ at 1204 ½
  • CZ down 2 ¾ at 474 ¾
  • WU unchanged at 655 ¼
  • SMQ down 2.20 at 427.00
  • SMZ down .70 at 363.20
  • BOQ up 84 at 4295
  • BOZ up 22 at 4291
  • RRU up 2.50 at 1592

 

Overnight volume

  • SQ 318
  • SX 16,951
  • CZ 15,074
  • WU 7,677
  • SMQ 414
  • SMZ 5,175
  • BOQ 1,458
  • BOZ 8,743
  • RRU 13

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 1-3 higher
  • Corn 1-3 lower
  • Wheat 2-4 higher
  • Meal 1-2 lower
  • Bean oil 20-30 higher
  • Rice 1-3 higher

 

Stock market lower. Dollar, crude oil, gold, and silver higher.

 

Nikkei down 1.453%

Hang Seng down .320%

Shanghai Index up .186%

 

US 2nd quarter GDP came out this morning at +1.7% expecting +1.0% and vs. 1st quarter GDP of +1.8%

 

European Union June unemployment rate at 10.9% vs. 11% in May . First time rate fell since Jan 2011.

 

Today is the second day of the FOMC 2 day policy meeting. The Feds will make an announcement at 1 pm CDT today.

 

Peoples Bank of China injected 17 billion yuan into markets yesterday

 

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday

  • Crude a draw of 740,000 expecting a draw of 2.3 MB
  • Gas a build of 1.8 MB expecting a draw of 800,000
  • Distillates a draw of 497,000 expecting a build of 300,000

 

Palm oil up 23. Chinese grain markets – soybeans up 38 yuan, meal down 28 yuan, bean oil up 74 yuan, corn up 7 yuan, palm oil up 92 yuan, rapeseed down 11 yuan, rapeseed meal down 15 yuan , and rapeseed oil up 68 yuan.

 

Intertek Agri Services estimated Malaysia’s July palm oil exports at 1.41 MMT up 4% from June (expecting 1.44 MMT)

 

Chinese Industry Analysts – Chinese Crush Breakdown

  • For the week July 20-26 total crush volume at 1,418,500 tons up 5.10% from a week ago
  • For the week July 20-26 total crush capacity utilization at 54.43% up 2.64% from a week ago
  • Total crush volume from Oct 1, 2012 – July 26, 2013 at 49,489,950 tons up 1.96% from a year ago
  • Total crush volume from Jan 1 , 2012 – July 26 2013 at 33,927,370 tons up 4.67% from a year ago
  • As of July 26th total imported bean stocks are at 5.8238 MMT up 233,100 tons from a week ago
  • Estimated July bean imports at 7.39 MMT (record)
  • Estimated August bean imports at 5.6 MMT
  • Estimated Sept bean imports at 4.1 MMT
  • Estimated October bean imports at 3.9 MMT
  • Due to smaller bean imports in August some crushing plants will halt production for a month or two.

 

Brazilian shipments between July 1-30th

  • Beans 5.01 MMT
  • Bean oil 98,000
  • Meal and pellets 1.32 MMT
  • Corn 1.32 MMT
  • Rice 45,000

 

Sinograin Oils estimated China’s ‘13/14 bean imports at 64.0 MMT vs. 59.3 MMT in ‘12/13

 

South Korea NOFI canceled tender for 70K tons of corn for Jan shipment, expecting prices to fall further.

 

India’s PEC bought 24,160 tons of Malaysian or Indonesian origin palm oil for August shipment

 

Egypt FIHC bought 20K bean oil for Aug-Sept shipment

 

Thailand 2013 rice exports estimated at 6.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 6.9 MMT in 2012 and vs. 2011 record of 10.6 MMT

 

Favorable weather continues in the US Midwest

 

Soybeans fell below $12 for the first time since January 2012. The low in November beans overnight was 1194 ¼.

 

26 bean oil receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of Cargill Ackley IA

 

525 new bean oil receipts were registered yesterday afternoon out of South Dakota Soybean Processors Volga SD

 

Total bean oil receipts registered is 9,099

 

Dec meal 200 day moving average is 363.70 and 100 day moving average is 360.90

 

Today is the second day of the Rogers roll. They are rolling long Sept corn and wheat positions into Dec. Rogers roll ends tomorrow.

 

Yesterday Tenco bought 1,000 March corn 400 puts – open interest as of yesterday’s close is 9,520 up 721

 

Yesterday Tenco bought 1,500 March corn 420 puts – open interest as of yesterday’s close is 4,052 up 1,396

 

Yesterday Tenco bought 1,500 March corn 440 puts – open interest as of yesterday’s close is 3,873 up 2,319

 

Deliveries

  • Beans 0 as expected
  • Meal 0 as expected
  • Bean oil 846 (expecting 1,000-3,500, some analysts were saying less than 1,000) Customer JP Morgan stopped 300. CHS issued 525.

 

Reuters poll of 13 analysts. Year-end CBOT spot month prices

  • CBOT soybean price at $11.56. Range of estimates were $10 -$14.05.  Versus January forecast of $11.83
  • CBOT corn price at $4.80. Range of estimates were $4.24 -$6.50. Versus January forecast of $5.47
  • CBOT wheat price at $6.64. Range of estimates were $5.95 – $ 7.80. Versus January forecast of $6.80

 

Lanworth estimates

  • ‘13/14 US corn production estimated at 14.0 BB vs. previous estimate of 13.65 BB
  • ‘13/14 US bean production estimated at 3.31 BB vs. previous estimate of 3.315 BB
  • ‘13/14 Russian wheat crop estimated at 48.4 MMT vs. previous estimate of 50.0 MMT
  • ‘13/14 world corn crop estimated at 965.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 956.0 MMT
  • ‘13/14 world bean crop estimated at 283.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • ‘13/14 world wheat crop estimated at 694 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CZ 576,667 open, up 2,451
  • Total corn 1,168,847 open, down 998
  • SQ 7,015 open, down 4,436
  • SX 313,523 open, up 1,459
  • Total beans 490,596 open, down 146.
  • SMQ 7,334 open, down 2,683
  • SMZ 149,555 open, down 1,845
  • Total meal 262,379 open, down 2,606
  • BOQ 10,192 open, down 4,399
  • BOZ 178,087 open, down 804
  • Total bean oil 334,414 open, down 3,417
  • WU 180,018 open, down 2,566
  • Total wheat 405,363 open, up 2,433
  • KC WU 77,816 open, down 1,008
  • Total KC wheat 138,271 open, down 355

 

Upcoming Reports/events

  • Weekly DOE #s come out today at 930 am CDT expecting
    • Crude a draw of 2.45 MB
    • Gas a draw of 1.5 MB
    • Distillates a build of 450,000
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production comes out today at 930 am CDT
  • Tonight/Thursday morning European and Chinese July mfg PMI comes out
  • ECB president press conference tomorrow
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT
  • Hearing FC Stone will come out tomorrow with US crop estimates
  • Friday US July unemployment comes out at 730 am CDT
  • Hearing Informa comes out next week with their US crop estimates
  • CONAB comes out on August 8th with their Brazilian crop estimates.
  • USDA crop production report comes out on August 12th
  • Based on a Reuters poll of 15 analysts . 2013 Canadian crop estimates – Stats Can comes out on Aug 21st with their crop report
    • All wheat average estimate 29.7 MMT , range of estimates are 27.4-30.0 MMT. Vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 29.4 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 26.3 MMT
    • Durum wheat average estimate 5.0 MMY, range of estimates are 4.8-5.1 MMT vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 4.9 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 4.5 MMT
    • Canola average estimate 15.0 MMT , range of estimates are 14.6-15.3 MMT. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 14.1 MMT and Stats Can 5 year average of 13.2 MMT
    • Oats average estimate 3.2 MMT , range of estimates 3.0-3.3 MMT vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 3.2 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 3.1 MMT

 

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg