News From The Grain Floor

Good morning.

 

Until executives go to jail for financial crimes, like inside traders, big banks will continue to manipulate markets for profit and ego.

Bill King

 

Today is position day for August futures. Traders should be out of long positions by the close today or risk taking delivery. Delivery expectations for tonight

  • Beans 0 , 0 receipts registered
  • Meal 0 , 0 receipts registered
  • Bean oil some analysts are saying less than 1,000 and other analysts are saying 1,000 – 4,000. There are 8,600 receipts registered.

 

Egypt is in for wheat for September shipment – US wheat not competitive .

 

USDA announced 290K tons of new crop US beans sold to unknown .

 

Overnight closes

  • SQ up 2 ½ at 1370
  • SX up 3 ¼ at 1223 1/4
  • CZ up 3 ¾ 477
  • WU up 4 ¾ at 656 ¼
  • SMQ up 7.10 at 446.00
  • SMZ up .40 at 372
  • BOQ up 3 at 4250
  • BOZ up 23 at 4305
  • RRU up 12 at 1596

Overnight volume

  • SQ 1,086
  • SX 16,991
  • CZ 11,796
  • WU 5,957
  • SMQ 1,036
  • SMZ 6,224
  • BOQ 2,379
  • BOZ 9,976
  • RRU 33

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 2-4 higher
  • Corn 2-4 higher
  • Wheat 3-5 higher
  • Meal 1-2 higher
  • Bean oil 15-25 higher
  • Rice 10-15 higher

 

Stock market and dollar higher. Gold, silver, and crude lower.

 

Nikkei down 3.27%

Hang Seng down .538%

Shanghai Index up .699%

 

Eurozone confidence hits highest level since April 2012

 

FOMC 2 day policy meeting begins today

 

Palm oil up 48. Chinese grain markets mixed – beans down 11 yuan, meal up 11 yuan, bean oil down 46 yuan, palm oil down 46 yuan, corn up 4 yuan, rapeseed down 7 yuan, rapeseed meal up 10 yuan , and rapeseed oil up 16 yuan

 

Taiwan bought 97,200 tons of US wheat for August Sept shipment , including dark northern spring , western white , and HRW wheat.

 

South Korea NOFI bought 50K tons of Black Sea origin wheat for Jan shipment and are negotiation another cargo for Jan shipment

 

Over the past 2 weeks South Korea has bought 755K tons of corn and wheat

 

Hearing China bought 1 cargo of western Canadian beans for Nov shipment

 

Trade talk Brazil may buy up to 1 MMT of US HRW wheat by mid-December

 

Japan lifts 2 month ban on US western white wheat

 

Japan seeks 178,212 tons of milling wheat for October shipment . Breakdown

  • 89,579 tons of US western white wheat
  • 31,721 tons of US dark northern spring US wheat
  • 23,282 tons of western red spring Canadian wheat
  • 33,630 tons of Australian white wheat

 

Good demand for wheat from Japan, China, and Egypt

 

Brazilian vessel lineup shows 3 corn boats heading to US

 

Favorable crop weather continues in the US

 

16 bean oil receipts canceled yesterday afternoon out of Cargill Ackley IA

 

20 rice receipts canceled yesterday afternoon

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CZ 574,250 open, up 841
  • Total corn 1,169,566 open, down 4
  • SQ 11,915 open, down 5,868
  • SX 311,689 open, up 44
  • Total beans 490,813 open, down 4,695
  • SMQ 10,380 open, down 5,833
  • SMZ 151,375 open, down 392
  • Total meal 265,426 open, down 4,990
  • BOQ 14,591 open, down 6,304
  • BOZ 178,916 open, down 1,092
  • Total bean oil 337,843 open, down 1,260
  • WU 182,512 open, down 1,549
  • Total wheat 402,649 open, up 1,217
  • KC WU 78,837 open, down 729
  • Total KC wheat 138,647 open, down 722

 

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday

 

Corn

  • Condition 63% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago (market was expecting steady – 2% higher) and vs. 24% a year ago and vs. 5 year average of 58%
    • IA down 2% at 53%
    • IN down 2% at 76%
    • MN down 2% at 62%
    • NE down 3% at 63%
    • IL down 1% at 64%
    • OH up 2% at 79%
    • MO up 3% at 49%
    • KS up 2% at 33%
    • TN up 4% at 86%
    • TX up 5% at 55%
  • Silking 71% vs. 43% a week ago and vs. 75% 5 year average
  • Doughing 8% vs. 35% a year ago and vs. 17% 5 year average

 

Beans

  • Condition 63% good to excellent down 1% from a week ago (expecting steady to 2% higher) and vs. 29% a year ago and vs. 5 year average of 57%
    • KY down 8% at 76%
    • IA down 3% at 53%
    • IN unchanged at 74%
    • IL down 1% at 71%
    • MN down 2% at 63%
    • NE up 1% at 64%
    • MO up 2% at 48%
    • KS up 4% at 45%
    • OH up 3% at 70%
    • MI up 4% at 70%
  • Blooming 65% vs. 46% a week ago and vs. 74% 5 year average
  • Setting pods 20% vs. 8% a week ago and vs. 34% 5 year average

 

Spring wheat

  • Condition 68% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago and vs. 63% a year ago

 

Winter wheat

  • Harvested 81% vs. 75% a week ago and vs. 82% 5 year average

 

Rice

  • Condition 69% good to excellent vs. 72% a week ago and vs. 70% a year ago

 

Cotton

  • 45% good to excellent up 1% from a week ago and vs. 44% a year ago
  • Squaring 89% vs. 77% a week ago and vs. 90% 5 year average
  • Setting bolls 39% vs. 27% a week ago and vs. 56% 5 year average

 

Upcoming Reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CDT
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek come out tomorrow with their Malaysian July palm oil export estimates
  • European unemployment comes out tomorrow
  • US 2nd quarter GDP comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT
  • Weekly DOE #s come out tomorrow at 930 am CDT expecting
    • Crude a draw of 2.25 MB
    • Gas a draw of 1.05 MB
    • Distillates a build of 1.0 MB
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT
  • Tomorrow is first notice day for August futures
  • Tomorrow is month end
  • Tomorrow night/Thursday morning European and Chinese July mfg PMI comes out
  • ECB president press conference on Thursday
  • Hearing FC Stone will come out on Thursday with US crop estimates
  • Friday US July unemployment comes out at 730 am CDT
  • Hearing Informa comes out next week with their US crop estimates
  • CONAB comes out on August 8th with their Brazilian crop estimates.
  • USDA crop production report comes out on August 12th
  • Based on a Reuters poll of 15 analysts . 2013 Canadian crop estimates – Stats Can comes out on Aug 21st with their crop report
    • All wheat average estimate 29.7 MMT , range of estimates are 27.4-30.0 MMT. Vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 29.4 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 26.3 MMT
    • Durum wheat average estimate 5.0 MMY, range of estimates are 4.8-5.1 MMT vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 4.9 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 4.5 MMT
    • Canola average estimate 15.0 MMT , range of estimates are 14.6-15.3 MMT. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 14.1 MMT and Stats Can 5 year average of 13.2 MMT
    • Oats average estimate 3.2 MMT , range of estimates 3.0-3.3 MMT vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 3.2 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 3.1 MMT

 

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg