News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

Law Number XIX: Although most products will soon be too costly to purchase, there will be a thriving market in the sale of books on how to fix them.

Norman R. Augustine

 

 

Overnight closes

  • SQ down 4 ¾ at 1345
  • SX  down 14 ¾ at 1213 ¾
  • CZ down 2 at 474
  • WU  up 1 ¾ at 652
  • SMQ down 1 at 434.80
  • SMZ down 4.70 at 365.20
  • BOZ down 24 at 4349
  • RRU down 4 at 1584.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SQ 2,003
  • SX 22,457
  • CZ 14,525
  • WU 3,347
  • SMQ 2,237
  • SMZ 6,548
  • BOZ 6,854
  • RRU 40

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 10-15 lower
  • Corn  1-3 lower
  • Wheat 1-3 higher
  • Meal  3-5 lower
  • Bean oil  20-30 lower
  • Rice 3-5 lower

 

Dollar higher . Stock market lower. Crude , gold , and silver higher.

 

Nikkei down 3.318%

Hang Seng down .541%

Shanghai Index down 1.722%

 

Concerns about China’s economy

 

Palm oil down 12. Chinese grain markets sharply lower

 

Egypt FIHC seeks 40K tons of bean oil for Aug – Sept shipment

 

Egypt Meditrade seeks 20K tons of bean oil and 30K tons of sunflower oil for Sept shipment

 

South Korea KFA canceled tender to buy 55K soymeal for November shipment  , expecting prices to fall.

 

South Korea NOFI seeks 140K optional origin corn for Jan shipment

 

Iraq seeks 50K optional origin wheat

 

Jordan seeks 100K tons of optional origin wheat

 

Japanese industry sources said Japan may resume buying US western white wheat this week

 

TALK continues China may sell 3 MMT of beans from reserves

 

TALK continues China eyeing/buying US HRW wheat

 

Ukraine Weather Forecaster estimated Ukraine’s 2013 corn crop at 25.0 MMT vs. 20.9 MMT a year ago

 

Ukraine Weather Forecaster estimated Ukraine’s 2013 corn yield at 5.2 TPH vs. 4.79 TPH in 2012 and v s. 2011 record yield of 6.44 TPH

 

Safras e Mercado estimated Brazil’s ‘13/14 bean crop at 88.17 MMT (record) vs. 81.65 MMT a year ago

 

Safras e Mercado estimated Brazil’s ‘13/14 bean area at 28.95 MH vs. 27.88 MH a year ago

 

Safras e Mercado estimated Brazil’s ‘13/14 corn crop at 77.57 MMT vs. ‘12/13 corn crop estimate of 82.0 MMT

  • 1st corn crop estimated at 29.18 MMT vs. 33.05 MMT a year ago
  • 2nd corn crop estimated at 42.46 MMT  vs. 45.20 MMT a year ago

 

Safras e Mercado estimated Brazil’s ‘13/14 cotton area at 1.116 MH vs. 906K hectares a year ago

 

Hearing Brazil lost 5% of their wheat crop last week due to frost.

 

Favorable US crop weather

 

100 bean oil receipts canceled Friday afternoon out of Bunge North America Decatur IN

 

Dec meal 200 day moving average is 363.90, 100 day is 360.70

 

CME to raise ethanol margins this week

 

FC Stone US crop estimates may come out this week

 

Weekly COT supplemental report from Friday afternoon . Large Spec positions as of 6/23/13 Futures and options combined

  • Wheat short 81,655
  • KC wheat short 16,029
  • Corn short 156,247
  • Beans long 65,914
  • Meal long 27,776
  • Bean oil short 68,207

 

Open interest as of Friday’s close

  • CZ 573,555 open, up 2,528
  • Total corn 1,178,291 open, up 4,943
  • SQ 25,271 open, down 1,175
  • SX 311,926 open, down 6,991
  • Total beans 503,391 open, down 4,115
  • SMQ 17,520 open, down 3,986
  • SMZ 151,866 open, down 1,986
  • Total meal 272,022 open, down 4,997
  • BOQ 21,314 open, down 7,904
  • BOZ 180,016 open, up 1,072
  • Total bean oil 339,551 open, down 4,649
  • WU 185,599 open, down 2,723
  • Total wheat 403,327 open, up 213
  • KC WU 79,875 open, down 392
  • Total KC wheat 139,717 open, up 43

 

Upcoming Reports/events

  • Weekly US export inspection report comes out today at 10 am CDT
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CDT expecting corn and bean good to excellent conditions to remain steady to up 2% from a week ago
  • FOMC 2 day policy meeting begins tomorrow
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CDT
  • Tomorrow  is position day for August futures
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek come out on Wednesday with their Malaysian July palm oil export estimates
  • European unemployment comes out on Wednesday
  • Wednesday night/Thursday morning European and Chinese July mfg PMI comes out
  • US 2nd quarter GDP comes out on Wednesday at 730 am CDT
  • Wednesday is first notice day for August futures
  • Wednesday is month end
  • ECB president press conference on Thursday
  • Friday August 2nd US July unemployment comes out .
  • Based on a Reuters poll of 15 analysts . 2013 Canadian crop estimates – Stats Can comes out on Aug 21st with their crop report
    • All wheat average estimate 29.7 MMT , range of estimates are 27.4-30.0 MMT. Vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 29.4 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 26.3 MMT
    • Durum wheat average estimate 5.0 MMY, range of estimates are 4.8-5.1 MMT vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 4.9 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 4.5 MMT
    • Canola average estimate 15.0 MMT , range of estimates are 14.6-15.3 MMT. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 14.1 MMT and Stats Can 5 year average of 13.2 MMT
    • Oats average estimate 3.2 MMT , range of estimates 3.0-3.3 MMT vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 3.2 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 3.1 MMT

 

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg