News From The Grain Floor

Good morning.

 

…we – you and I, and our government – must avoid the impulse to live only for today…

President Eisenhower

 

August options expire today at 115 pm CDT.

 

USDA announced 220K tons of new crop US beans sold to China

 

USDA announced 211,328 tons of US corn sold to unknown – 8,128 tons of old crop and 203,200 tons of new crop.

 

Overnight closes

  • SQ up 1 ¼ at 1356 ½ – overnight range 1330 ½-1360 ¼
  • SX up 4 at 1228 – overnight range 1207 ¼ -1231 ½
  • CZ up ¾ at 479 ½ – range overnight 476 ¼ -481
  • WU up 5 ½ at 654 ¾  – range overnight 648-657 ½
  • SMQ down 3.10 from yesterday’s settlement , but  up 24.20 from the synthetic settlement at 444.70  – range overnight 427.80 (limit) – 454.60
  • SMZ up 5.50 at 371.00 – range overnight 360.50-373.40
  • BOZ down 23 at 4362 – overnight range 4335-4399
  • RRU down 2 at 1572.50 – overnight range 1567-1574.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SQ 5,982
  • SX 34,250
  • CZ 19,650
  • WU 5,517
  • SMQ 6,889
  • SMZ 15,323
  • BOZ 14,143
  • RRU 24

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 3-5 higher
  • Corn 1-2 higher
  • Wheat 4-6 higher
  • Meal 2-4 higher
  • Bean oil 15-25 lower
  • Rice 2-3 lower

 

Dollar, stock market, crude oil, gold, and silver are lower this morning.

 

Nikkei down 2.973%

Hang Seng up .310%

Shanghai Index down .512%

 

Palm oil up 8. Chinese grain markets sharply lower. Beans down 116 yuan, meal down 92 yuan, bean oil down 132 yuan, corn down 5 yuan, palm oil down 100 yuan, rapeseed down 20 yuan, rapeseed oil down 210 yuan, and rapeseed meal down 67 yuan

 

Hearing China’s Sinograin bought 4 Brazilian bean cargoes on Wednesday for April/May shipment.

 

Hearing Chinese crusher bought 1 cargo of Argentine beans for Aug Sept shipment yesterday

 

Hearing Chinese crush bought 1 cargo of US beans for Jan shipment yesterday

 

TALK continues China will sell 3 MMT of beans from reserves soon (not confirmed)

 

TALK Brazil bought 200,000 tons of US HRW wheat this week

 

South Korea MFG bought 60K optional origin feed wheat for Nov shipment

 

South Korea NOFI bought 65K optional origin (possibly from the Black Sea ) corn for Jan shipment

 

South Korea KFA seeks 55K tons of meal for November shipment . Optional origin excluding China and India

 

South Korea flour millers have bought 705,000 tons of corn and wheat over the past 10 days

 

Philippines bought 100K optional origin (possibly Black Sea) feed wheat for Sept/Oct shipment

 

Malaysia seeks 120K tons of optional origin corn for Oct-Dec shipment

 

Asian buyers corn needs mostly covered through November

 

Ukraine Ag Min said as of July 25 Ukraine has harvested 25.33 MMT of grain on 8.67 MH with an average yield of 2.92 TPH
FranceAgrimer weekly France crop report – 14% of the spring wheat crop has been harvested vs. 3% a week ago and vs. 20% a year ago

 

Corn-based ethanol RINs drop 18% yesterday on speculation Congress will adjust biofuel consumption targets – Bloomberg

 

18 bean oil receipts canceled yesterday afternoon . 8 out of Cargill Ackley IA and 10 bout of South Dakota Soybean Processors Volga SD

 

8 rice receipts canceled yesterday afternoon

 

SMZ 50 day moving average is 376.10 , 100 day is 360.70 , and 200 day is 364.00

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CZ 571,223 open, down 5267
  • Total corn 1,174,081 open, up 1,937
  • SQ 26,482 open, down 1,358
  • SX 319,228 open, down 10,558
  • Total beans 508,156 open, down 13,362
  • SMQ 22,192 open, down 3,559
  • SMZ 154,017 open, down 3,861
  • Total meal 278,605 open, down 4,578
  • BOQ 29,255 open, down 7,266
  • BOZ 179,170 open , up 1,278
  • Total bean oil 344,672 open, down 3,566
  • WU 188,491 open, down 2,609
  • Total wheat 403,702 open, down 98
  • KC WU 80,532 open, down 1,178
  • Total KC Wheat 139,958 open, down 1,170

 

Upcoming Reports/events

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CDT
  • Weekly US export inspection report comes out on Monday at 10 am CDT
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CDT
  • FOMC 2 day policy meeting begins Tuesday July 30th
  • Tuesday July 30th is position day for August futures
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek come out on Wednesday with their Malaysian July palm oil export estimates
  • US 2nd quarter GDP comes out on Wednesday at 730 am CDT
  • Wednesday July 31st is first notice day for August futures
  • Friday August 2nd US July unemployment comes out .
  • Based on a Reuters poll of 15 analysts . 2013 Canadian crop estimates – Stats Can comes out on Aug 21st with their crop report
    • All wheat average estimate 29.7 MMT , range of estimates are 27.4-30.0 MMT. Vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 29.4 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 26.3 MMT
    • Durum wheat average estimate 5.0 MMY, range of estimates are 4.8-5.1 MMT vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 4.9 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 4.5 MMT
    • Canola average estimate 15.0 MMT , range of estimates are 14.6-15.3 MMT. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 14.1 MMT and Stats Can 5 year average of 13.2 MMT
    • Oats average estimate 3.2 MMT , range of estimates 3.0-3.3 MMT vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 3.2 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 3.1 MMT

 

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg