News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

“When I was young I used to think that money was the most important thing in life. Now that I am old, I know it is.”

— Oscar Wilde

 

Overnight closes

  • SQ down 34 ¼ at 1358 ¼
  • SX down 19 at 1237 ¾
  • CZ down 3 ½ at 476 ¾
  • WU down 2 ¼ at 651
  • SMQ limit down at 447.80. 807 contracts traded limit down overnight.
  • SMZ down 6.70 at 373.80
  • BOZ down 60 at 4351
  • RRU down 1.50 at 1591

 

Overnight volume

  • SQ 8,432
  • SX 30,844
  • CZ 17,796
  • WU 3,698
  • SMZ 18,127
  • BOZ 10,749
  • RRU 83

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 15-25 lower
  • Corn 3-5 lower
  • Wheat 2-4 lower
  • Meal 5-7 lower
  • Bean oil 50-70 lower
  • Rice 1-2 lower

 

Crude, silver, dollar, and stock market lower. Gold higher

 

Nikkei down 1.143%

Hang Seng down .309%

Shanghai Index down .601%

 

Eurozone delayed decision on 4 billion Euro aid for Greece until Friday .

 

Weekly US jobless claims report came out this morning at +7K to 343K expecting 340K

 

Palm oil down 10. Chinese grain markets lower

 

India’s bean and bean oil futures hit 9 ½ month lows

 

India’s rapeseed futures hit 20 month lows

 

Surveyor SGS estimated Malaysia’s July 1-25th palm oil exports at 1.06 MMT down 6% from a month ago . Expecting 1.08 MMT

 

Surveyor Intertek Agri Services estimated Malaysia’s July 1-25th palm oil exports at 1.09 MMT down 7% from a month ago

 

Indonesia to keep palm oil export tax at 10.5% in August unchanged from July.

 

Chinese industry analysts –  Crush breakdown

  • For the week of July 13-19th total crush volume nationwide at 1,349,650 tons up 8.77% from a week ago
  • For the week July 13-19th total crush capacity utilization at 51.79% up 3.53% from a week ago
  • Total crush volume between October 1st  2012 – July 19th 2013 at 48,071,450 tons up 1.70% from a year ago
  • Total crush volume between January 1st 2013- July 19th 2013 at 32,508,870 tons up 4.34% from a year ago
  • As of July 19th China’s total imported bean stocks are at 5.5907 MMT up 199,300 tons from a week ago
  • Estimated July bean imports at 7.3876 MMT (record)
  • Estimated August bean imports at 5.6 MMT
  • Estimated September bean imports at 4.1 MMT
  • Estimated October bean imports at 3.9 MMT

 

Hearing China bought 1 cargo of US beans for Dec shipment yesterday.

 

Rumors have been in the market this week of China’s government to release 3 MMT of beans from reserves. China’s Sinograin has denied these rumors.

 

Iraq bought 50K Australian wheat

 

Japan bought 107,371 tons of milling wheat for Aug-Oct shipment . Breakdown

  • 28,535 tons of HRW US wheat
  • 32,760 tons of dark northern spring US wheat
  • 22,549 tons of western red spring Canadian wheat
  • 23,527 tons of Australian white wheat

 

South Korea KFA bought 60K Black Sea origin corn for Jan shipment

 

South Korea KFA bought 60K Black Sea origin wheat for Nov shipment

 

South Korea MFG bought 60K Black Sea origin corn for Jan shipment

 

South Korea Kocopia rejected all offers for 70K tons of corn for Nov shipment

 

Syria seeks 200K milling wheat

 

Thailand to sell 250K tons of rice to Iran

 

ProAgro estimated Ukraine 2013 grain crop at 53.7 MMT up 3.1% from their previous estimate and vs. Ukraine government estimate of 54.0 MMT

 

ProAgro estimated Ukraine’s 2013 wheat crop at 20.7 MMT vs. 15.8 MMT a year ago

 

ProAgro estimated Ukraine’s 2013 corn crop at 23.6 MMT vs. 20.9 MMT a year ago

 

ProAgro estimated Ukraine’s 2013 wheat exports at 8.4 MMT up 29% from a year ago

 

ProAgro estimated Ukraine’s 2013 corn exports at a record 15.9 MMT

 

In ‘12/13 Ukraine exported 22.8 MMT of grain

 

Ukraine’s Ag Min said Ukraine exported 746K tons of grain between July 1-23rd

 

USDA attaché in Mexico said drought has damaged grain crops.

 

Favorable crop weather in US Midwest

 

Today is the last day of the US spring wheat crop tour. Final results from the tour comes out this afternoon

 

34 rice receipts canceled yesterday afternoon

 

July 8th low in Nov beans was 1225

 

Dec meal 50 day moving average is 375.70

 

Weekly US export sales report

  • Wheat  ‘13/14 661,400 (expecting 400-600K)
  • Corn ‘12/13 – 27,900 ‘13/14 515,900 (expecting 600-950K)
  • Beans ‘12/13 128,300 ‘13/14 665,200 (expecting 300-350K)
  • Meal ‘12/13 184K ‘13/14 145,600 (expecting 35-150K)
  • Bean oil ‘12/13 3,300 (expecting 0-20K)
  • Cotton ‘12/13 33,900 ‘13/14 96,200

 

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 661,400 MT for delivery in the 2013/2014 marketing year were primarily for China (177,900 MT), Nigeria (122,300 MT, including 46,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,600 MT), the Philippines (64,800 MT), Mexico (64,300 MT), and Jamaica (36,700 MT). Decreases were reported for Malaysia (28,500 MT), Ireland (14,100 MT), and Ecuador (3,400 MT). Exports of 567,900 MT were primarily to Nigeria (129,800 MT), China (71,800 MT), South Korea (60,000 MT), the Philippines (48,800 MT), Japan (48,800 MT), Mexico (47,000 MT), and Chile (32,700 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales reductions of 27,900 MT for 2012/2013 resulted as increases for Japan (29,200 MT, switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (16,300 MT), Venezuela (13,000 MT), Taiwan (10,200 MT), and Guyana (2,900 MT, switched from the French West Indies), were more than offset by decreases for unknown destinations (96,200 MT), the French West Indies (3,000 MT), and Panama (800 MT). Net sales of 515,900 MT for 2013/2014 were primarily for unknown destinations (319,800 MT), Mexico (94,400 MT), and Guatemala (45,000 MT). Exports of 239,900 MT were up 41 percent from the previous week and 19 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (99,600 MT), Mexico (65,100 MT), Venezuela (48,000 MT), and Colombia (16,700 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales of 128,300 MT for 2012/2013 were up 16 percent from the previous week and up noticeably from the prior 4-week average. Increases for unknown destinations (34,900 MT), Indonesia (31,500 MT, including 25,100 MT switched from unknown destinations), Japan (29,800 MT), Taiwan (26,500 MT), and Vietnam (5,500 MT), were partially offset by decreases for Mexico (1,300 MT). Net sales of 665,200 MT for 2013/2014 were primarily for China (426,000 MT) and unknown destinations (165,000 MT). Exports of 82,200 MT were down 32 percent from the previous week and 39 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (34,100 MT), Indonesia (26,100 MT), Japan (6,800 MT), Vietnam (6,600 MT), and Canada (4,400 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales of 184,000 MT for 2012/2013 were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Increases for the Philippines (89,900 MT), Mexico (29,600 MT), Venezuela (27,500 MT), Guatemala (19,300 MT), Canada (7,300 MT), and Spain (6,000 MT), were partially offset by decreases for Nicaragua (300 MT). Net sales of 145,600 MT for 2013/2014 were primarily for unknown destinations (135,000 MT), Mexico (5,200 MT), and the Dominican Republic (5,000 MT). Exports of 58,700 MT–a marketing-year low–were down 73 percent from the previous week and 57 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (19,300 MT), Canada (14,500 MT), Colombia (5,200 MT), the Philippines (5,200 MT), and Algeria (4,500 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 3,300 MT for 2012/2013 resulted as increases for Nicaragua (3,500 MT) and the United Arab Emirates (100 MT), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (500 MT). Exports of 900 MT–a marketing-year–low were down 92 percent from the previous week and 91 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (400 MT) and Canada (400 MT).
  • Cotton – Net Upland sales of 33,900 running bales for 2012/2013 were down 33 percent from the previous week and 22 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for China (11,600 RB), Vietnam (7,700 RB), South Korea (5,700 RB), Egypt (2,200 RB), and Bangladesh (1,800 RB). Decreases were reported for Turkey (700 RB), Japan (500 RB), and El Salvador (300 RB). Net sales of 96,200 RB for 2013/2014 were reported primarily for Turkey (21,300 RB), Mexico (14,700 RB), and China (12,400 RB). Decreases were reported for Morocco (300 RB) and El Salvador (200 RB). Exports of 120,900 RB were down 6 percent from the previous week and 17 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (47,200 RB), Mexico (15,100 RB), Indonesia (13,300 RB), Turkey (9,700 RB), and Vietnam (5,100 RB). Net American Pima sales of 3,400 RB for 2012/2013 resulted as increases for China (2,200 RB) and Thailand (1,400 RB, including 300 MT switched from Japan), were partially offset by decreases for Japan (300 RB). Net sales of 4,000 RB for 2013/2014 were primarily for Indonesia (2,000 RB) and China (1,000 RB). Exports of 10,800 RB were down 3 percent from the previous week and 12 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (5,800 RB), India (1,900 RB), and Thailand (900 RB).

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CZ 571,521 open, up 3,854
  • Total corn 1,172,156 open, up 3,407
  • SQ 27,967 open, up 7,039
  • SX 330,392 open, up 1,564.
  • Total beans 522,576 open, down 4,400
  • SMQ 25,889 open, down 3,907
  • SMZ 25,889 open, down 3,907
  • Total meal 283,594 open, down 31
  • BOQ 36,551 open, down 3,655
  • BOZ 177,913 open, up 2,365
  • Total bean oil 348,289 open, up 1,850
  • WU 191,228 open, down 4,202
  • Total wheat 404,435 open, up 34
  • KC WU 82,013 open, down 925
  • Total KC wheat 141,500 open, up 1,809

 

Upcoming Reports/events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CDT expecting +45 billion
  • Final estimates from the Wheat Quality Council spring wheat tour comes out this afternoon
  • August options expire tomorrow on the close
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CDT
  • Tuesday July 30th is position day for August futures
  • Wednesday July 31st is first notice day for August futures
  • Based on a Reuters poll of 15 analysts . 2013 Canadian crop estimates – Stats Can comes out on Aug 21st with their crop report
    • All wheat average estimate 29.7 MMT , range of estimates are 27.4-30.0 MMT. Vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 29.4 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 26.3 MMT
    • Durum wheat average estimate 5.0 MMY, range of estimates are 4.8-5.1 MMT vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 4.9 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 4.5 MMT
    • Canola average estimate 15.0 MMT , range of estimates are 14.6-15.3 MMT. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 14.1 MMT and Stats Can 5 year average of 13.2 MMT
    • Oats average estimate 3.2 MMT , range of estimates 3.0-3.3 MMT vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 3.2 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 3.1 MMT

 

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg