News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

Age does not diminish the extreme disappointment of having a scoop of ice cream fall from the cone.

– Jim Fiebig

 

Egypt GASC is in for wheat for Sept shipment

 

Overnight closes

  • SQ down 34 at 1428 ½
  • SX up 1 at 1261 ¼
  • CZ down 2 ¼ at 483 ¼
  • WU up 3 at 656 ¾
  • SMQ down 8.90 at 478.90
  • SMZ up 1.60 at 382.40
  • BOZ down 17 at 4451
  • RRU up 14 at 1591

 

Overnight volume

  • SQ 9,727
  • SX 23,115
  • CZ 16,267
  • WU 4,097
  • SMQ 3,511
  • SMZ 7,952
  • BOZ 8,939
  • RRU 202

 

Opening Calls

  • Beans 1-2 higher
  • Corn 1-3 lower
  • Wheat 2-4 higher
  • Meal 1-2 higher
  • Bean oil 15-25 lower
  • Rice 13-15 higher

 

Gold, silver, stock market, and dollar higher. Crude lower

 

Nikkei down .320%

Hang Seng up .244%

Shanghai Index down .519%

 

Flash July mfg PMIs

  • China’s HSBC 47.7 (11 month low) vs. June final of 48.2
  • German 50.3 expecting 49.2 vs. June final of 48.6
  • Eurozone 50.1 expecting 49.0 vs. June final of 48.8
  • France 49.8 expecting 48.7 vs. June final of 47.2

 

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday

  • Crude draw of 1.4 MB expecting a draw of 2.5 MB
  • Gas draw of 889K expecting a build of 1.1 MB
  • Distillates a draw of 710K expecting a build of 1.9 MB

 

Palm oil down 34. Chinese grain markets lower

 

Chinese industry analysts said Dalian corn futures were down 8 yuan due to weak cash market caused by the reappearance of H7N9 bird flu

 

RUMOR/TALK continues – China’s government may release 3.0 MMT of beans from reserves

 

Hearing China bought 1 cargo of Canadian soybeans for October shipment on Monday night.

 

Algeria bought 400K tons of optional origin milling wheat for Nov shipment possibly from France

 

South Korea FLC bought 120K tons of optional origin corn for Dec/Jan shipment

 

Taiwan TSC bought 23K US old crop corn and 12K tons of US old crop beans for Aug Sept shipment

 

Japan bought 120,360 tons of feed barley via SBS tender for October shipment

 

Egypt FIHC seeks 20K bean oil for Aug-Sept shipment

 

Talk/Reports –  China may buy 10-15 MMT of wheat in ‘13/14

 

Report on Reuters said China’s ‘13/14 wheat imports estimated at 10.0 MMT . ’13./14 wheat imports from Australia estimated at 2-3 MMT vs. average of 500K tons – 1.0 MMT

 

Dow Jones report – Crop damage and stock rebuilding to push China’s grain imports to a 20 year high. Over the past 7 weeks China has bought over 5 MMT of US and Australian wheat and corn.

 

Down Jones report – Over the past week east Asian countries (Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, China, Vietnam , and the Philippines) has bought 1.2 MMT of wheat, corn and meal

 

Japan customs data shows Japan imported 1.78 tons of grain in June down 8.4% from a year ago . Japan imported 831,548 tons of grain from the US down 34.8% from a year ago

 

Japan customs data shows Japan imported 12.98 MMT of grain between Jan-June up .9% from a year ago . Japan imported 5.37 MMT from the US down 36.4% from a year ago

 

Japan customs data shows Japan imported 188,620 tons of beans in June down 27.7% from a year ago . Japan imported 90,340 tons of beans from the US down 16.2% from a year ago

 

Japan customs data shows Japan imported 1.367 MMT of beans between Jan-June down 3.9% from a year ago . Japan imported 936,609 tons from the US down 5.1% from a year ago

 

Russia Grain Producers Union estimated Russia’s 2013 grain crop at 75-80 MMT vs. official estimate of 95.0 MMT and vs. 71.0 MMT in 2012

 

Russia Grain Producers Union estimated Russia’s ‘13/14 exportable surplus at 15-15.7 MMT unchanged from a year ago

 

Russia’s Grain Producers Union estimated Russia’s 2013 wheat crop at 45-48 MMT vs. official estimate of 50.0 MMT and vs. 38.0 MMT a year ago

 

Russia sold 8,235 tons of intervention grain making the total sold since Oct 23 3,706,066 tons

 

SAGIS – South Africa’s June corn ending stocks at 6.1 MMT vs. 3.2 MMT in May

 

Today is the second day of the Wheat Quality Council US spring wheat tour, they will survey spring wheat fields in northern and northwestern ND, tour ends tomorrow.

 

Bureau of Meteorology said Eastern Australia wetter than normal over the next 3 months , may boost grain crops

 

26 bean oil receipts canceled yesterday afternoon out of South Dakota Soybean Processors Volga SD

 

Nov bean 50 day moving average is 1273 ¼ .

 

Nov bean 100 day moving average is 1255 ½

 

Dec meal 50 day moving average is 375.10

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CZ 568,371 open, up 11,136
  • Total corn 1,169,455 open, up 18,133
  • SQ 35,093 open, down 4,123
  • SX 329,131 open, up 543
  • Total beans 527,259 open, down 192
  • SMQ 29,950 open, down 7,076
  • SMZ 156,606 open, down 586
  • Total meal  284,019 open, down 5,921
  • BOQ 40,237 open, down 3,319
  • BOZ 175,560 open, up 3,593
  • Total bean oil 346,477 open, up 3,175
  • WU 195,464 open, up 3,765
  • Total wheat 405,239 open, up 3,239
  • KC WU 82,946 open, up 6
  • Total KC wheat 139,725 open, up 970

 

Upcoming Reports/events

  • Weekly DOE #s come out today at 930 am CDT expecting
    • Crude a draw of 2.8 MB
    • Gas a build of 1.65 MB
    • Distillates a build of 1.85 MB
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out today at 930 am CDT
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services come out on Thursday with their July 1-25th Malaysian palm oil export estimates expecting 1.08 MMT down 7% from a month ago
  • Weekly US jobless claims comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT
  • Final estimates from the Wheat Quality Council spring wheat tour comes out tomorrow afternoon
  • August options expire on Friday on the close
  • Tuesday July 30th is position day for August futures
  • Wednesday July 31st is first notice day for August futures
  • Based on a Reuters poll of 15 analysts . 2013 Canadian crop estimates – Stats Can comes out on Aug 21st with their crop report
    • All wheat average estimate 29.7 MMT , range of estimates are 27.4-30.0 MMT. Vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 29.4 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 26.3 MMT
    • Durum wheat average estimate 5.0 MMY, range of estimates are 4.8-5.1 MMT vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 4.9 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 4.5 MMT
    • Canola average estimate 15.0 MMT , range of estimates are 14.6-15.3 MMT. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 14.1 MMT and Stats Can 5 year average of 13.2 MMT
    • Oats average estimate 3.2 MMT , range of estimates 3.0-3.3 MMT vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 3.2 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 3.1 MMT

 

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg