News From The Grain Floor

 

Good morning

 

A computer lets you make more mistakes faster than any invention in human history – with the possible exceptions of handguns and tequila.

– Mitch Ratliffe

 

Overnight closes

  • SX up 3 ½ at 1277 ½
  • CZ down 5 ¾ at 495
  • WU up 2 at 666 ½
  • SMZ up 1.50 at 384.00
  • BOZ up 13 at 4545
  • RRU down 6 at 1549.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 15,805
  • CZ 24,727
  • WU 3,988
  • SMZ 6,969
  • BOZ 6,189
  • RRU 35

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 2-4 higher
  • Corn 4-6 lower
  • Wheat 2-4 higher
  • Meal 1-2 higher
  • Bean oil 10-20 higher
  • Rice 5-7 lower

 

Dollar and stock market lower. Crude, gold, and silver higher

 

Nikkei up .467%

Hang Seng up .253%

Shanghai Index up .616%

Most world stock markets higher

 

Palm oil up 15. Chinese grain markets higher beans and bean oil lower corn, meal and palm oil

 

Intertek Agri Services estimated Malaysia’s July 1-20th palm oil exports at 798,482 tons down 14% from a month ago

 

SGS estimated Malaysia’s July 1-20th palm oil exports at 794,081 tons down 13% from a month ago

 

Japan bought 300K tons of Ukraine (120K tons) and Brazil corn (180K tons) for Oct/Dec shipment

 

Vietnam bought 20K tons of South American corn for Nov –Dec shipment

 

Iraq bought 50K Australian wheat for August shipment

 

Hearing China bought 2 cargoes of Brazilian beans on Friday for March shipment

 

India’s Farm Minister estimated ‘12/13 Food grain production at 255.36 MMT down 1.5% from a year ago

 

India’s Farm Minister estimated ‘12/13 rice production at 104.4 MMT down .9% from a year ago

 

India’s Farm Minister estimated ‘12/13 wheat production at 92.5 MMT down 2.5% from a year ago

 

Analysts expect India’s ‘13/14 food grain production to be above ‘11/12 record production of 259.3 MMT due to good monsoon rains

 

Brazilian line up shows 3.5 MMT of Brazilian corn to be shipped in August

 

Analysts expect 2013 Brazilian corn exports to be 15-17 MMT . In the 1st half of 2013 Brazil exported 8.4 MMT of corn

 

On Thursday Argentina Ag Min estimated the ‘12/13 corn crop at 32.0 MMT up 23% from previous estimate. Argentina’s Ag Secretary said big jump in corn crop estimate was due to a new and more accurate method of measurement

 

IKAR estimated Russia’s July wheat exports at 1.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 1.0 MMT

 

IKAR said Russia exported 700K tons of wheat between July 1-20th

 

Based on a Reuters poll of 7 analysts estimated South Africa’s 2013 corn crop at 11.134 MMT vs. 11.83 MMT in 2012

 

Vietnam Food Association said Vietnam exported 241,668 tons of rice between July 1-18th and exported 3.73 MMT between January 1-July 18th

 

Analysts estimated 2013 rice exports at 7.5-7.6 MMT vs. 7.72 MMT a year ago

 

Dec corn July 8th low was $4.90

 

Rainfall over weekend less than expected in Iowa

 

Ideal crop weather in forecast for the next 10 days in the corn belt. Cooler temps and rains

 

1 corn receipt canceled Friday afternoon out of CIRM Chicago IL

 

6 bean oil receipts canceled Friday afternoon out of South Dakota Soybean Processors Volga SD

 

10 rice receipts canceled Friday afternoon

 

Nov bean 50 day moving average is 1270 ¾

 

Nov bean 200 day moving average is 1281 ¾

 

China’s June Grain and Oilseed imports – General Administration of Customs

  • Wheat 219,370 tons up 1.21% from a year ago
  • Barley 206,072 tons up 29.52% from a year ago
  • Corn 7,825 tons down 98.52% from a year ago
  • Rice 163,001 tons down 23.32% from a year ago
  • Soybean 6,925,736 tons up 23.1% from a year ago
    • Soybeans from Brazil 5,716,170 tons up 33.37% from a year ago
    • Soybeans from Argentina 915,875 tons up 56.53% from a year ago
    • Soybeans from US 69,773 tons down 90.01% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed 117,480 tons down 65.64% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed oil 132,579 tons up 38.76% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed meal 1,503 tons down 98% from a year ago
  • Bean oil 100,116 tons down 12.11% from a year ago
  • Meal 681 tons down 35.58% from a year ago
  • Palm oil 297,876 tons down 24.12% from a year ago

 

China’s Jan-June 2013 Grain and Oilseed imports – General Administration of Customs

  • Wheat 1,397,103 tons down 36.14% from a year ago
  • Barley 1,031,964 tons down 31.62% from a year ago
  • Corn 1,521,961 tons down 36.72% from a year ago
  • Rice 1,316,869 tons up 11.76% from a year ago
  • Soybean 27,490,796 tons down 5.38% from a year ago
    • Soybeans from Brazil 13.35 M up .51% from a year ago
    • Soybeans from Argentina 916,886 tons down 27.23% from a year ago
    • Soybeans from US 12.522 M down 12.7% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed 1,772,636 tons up 14.94% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed oil 882,814 tons up 80.29% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed meal 10,284 tons down 96.62% from a year ago
  • Bean oil 424,831 tons down 24.67% from a year ago
  • Meal 11,268 tons down 71.9% from a year ago
  • Palm oil 2,848,688 tons up 8.19% from a year ago

 

Argentina Ag Min weekly report from Friday

  • Argentine wheat crop is 80% planted vs. 74% a year ago
  • Argentine corn harvest is 94% complete vs. 92% a year ago

 

Weekly COT supplemental report from Friday . Large spec position as of July 16th futures and options included

  • Wheat short 66,902
  • KC wheat short 19,410
  • Corn short 110,916
  • Beans long 82,690
  • Meal long 34,131
  • Bean oil short 59,217

 

Open interest as of Friday’s close

  • BOZ 172,796 open, up 699
  • Total bean oil 344,289 open, down 1,759
  • CZ 549,392 open, up 2,260
  • Total corn 1,139,653 open, up 11,274
  • KC WU 83,590 open, down 350
  • Total KC Wheat 138,169 open, down 654
  • SX 322,922 open, down 1,809
  • Total beans 520,392 open, down 2,135
  • SMZ 155,070 open, up 1,687
  • Total meal 290,979 open, down 1,340
  • WU 190,549 open, down 2,514
  • Total wheat 399,332 open, down 1,610

 

Upcoming Reports/events

  • Weekly US export inspections comes out today at 10 am CDT
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CDT expecting corn and bean conditions to fall 2-3% from a week ago
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CDT
  • On Wednesday European economic data comes out – Flash PMI
  • August options expire on Friday on the close
    • Aug corn 540 calls have 2,282 contracts open and the puts have 10,372 contracts open
    • Aug bean 1500 calls have 8,485 contracts open and the puts have 759 contracts open
  • Tuesday July 30th is position day for August futures
  • Wednesday July 31st is first notice day for August futures
  • Based on a Reuters poll of 15 analysts . 2013 Canadian crop estimates – Stats Can comes out on Aug 21st with their crop report
    • All wheat average estimate 29.7 MMT , range of estimates are 27.4-30.0 MMT. Vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 29.4 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 26.3 MMT
    • Durum wheat average estimate 5.0 MMY, range of estimates are 4.8-5.1 MMT vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 4.9 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 4.5 MMT
    • Canola average estimate 15.0 MMT , range of estimates are 14.6-15.3 MMT. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 14.1 MMT and Stats Can 5 year average of 13.2 MMT
    • Oats average estimate 3.2 MMT , range of estimates 3.0-3.3 MMT vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 3.2 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 3.1 MMT

 

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg