News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

Takes me back to a time when I wore younger a mans clothes and life was lost in a haze of great music …

Keith Hilton

 

USDA announced 120K US SRW wheat sold to China for ‘13/14 delivery
Overnight closes

  • SX up 1 at 1266 ¾
  • CZ down 5 ½ at 495 ¼
  • WU up 1 at 661 ½
  • SMZ down .60 at 377.30
  • BOZ up 1 at 4540
  • RRU up 6 at 1545

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 15,528
  • CZ 12,886
  • WU 5,845
  • SMZ 5,511
  • BOZ 5,880
  • RRU 50

 

Opening calls

  • Beans old crop 7-10 higher new crop –  steady better – subject to weather
  • Corn 4-6 lower
  • Wheat 1-2 higher
  • Meal .50-1 lower
  • Bean oil steady mixed
  • Rice 5-7 higher

 

Dollar lower, Stock market lower , Crude higher, Silver higher, and Gold higher.

 

Nikkei down 1.476%

Hang Seng up .081%

Shanghai Index down 1.521%

 

Lack of news this morning

 

Palm oil down 34. Chinese grain markets higher except beans were lower

 

Analysts expected Malaysia’s July palm oil ending stocks to reach 1.85 MMT vs. 1.65 MMT in June

 

China bought 600K tons of Australian wheat for Jan- March shipment

 

Hearing China bought 2 cargoes of US beans yesterday 1 cargo for Nov shipment and 1 cargo for Dec shipment

 

South Korea NOFI bought 165K tons of corn from South Africa and Black Sea region for Sept –Dec shipment

 

South Korea NOFI bought 60K tons of feed wheat possibly from Black Sea .

 

NOAA forecasted crop-friendly weather for the US Midwest into autum

 

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said Argentina’s corn harvest is 92% complete

 

BAGE estimated Argentina’s 2013 corn crop at 24.8 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

BAGE said 87.4% of Argentina’s wheat crop has been planted vs. 84% a year ago

 

BAGE estimated Argentina’s ‘13/14 wheat area at 3.9 MH unchanged from previous estimate

 

Nov bean 50 day moving average is 1269 ½

 

Dec meal 50 day moving average is 372.30

 

20 wheat receipts canceled yesterday afternoon out of Andersons Maumee OH

 

5 corn receipts canceled yesterday afternoon out of ADM Ottawa IL
216 bean oil receipts canceled yesterday afternoon out of Ackley IA Cargill

 

121 rice receipts canceled yesterday afternoon

 

Iowa drier Southern IL and MO wetter through Tuesday

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • BOZ 172,165 open, up 1,110
  • Total bean oil 346,106 open , 3,677
  • CZ 547,193 open, up 2,450
  • Total corn 1,128,325 open, up 6,865
  • SX 324,992 open, down 4,250
  • Total beans 522,846 open, down 5,409
  • SMZ 153,449 open, down 2,343
  • Total meal 292,531 open, down 4,083
  • WU 193,108 open, down 1,172
  • Total wheat 401,373 open, down 279

 

Upcoming Reports/events

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CDT
  • G20 finance ministers and central bankers meet today and tomorrow
  • Surveyor Intertek Agri Services comes out on Saturday with their Malaysian July 1-20th palm oil export estimates expecting 792K tons down 15% from a month ago
  • Surveyor SGS comes out on Monday with their Malaysian July 1-20th palm oil export estimates
  • Weekly US export inspections comes out on Monday at 10 am CDT
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CDT expecting corn and bean conditions to fall 1-3% from a week ago
  • Based on a Reuters poll of 15 analysts . 2013 Canadian crop estimates – Stats Can comes out on Aug 21st with their crop report
    • All wheat average estimate 29.7 MMT , range of estimates are 27.4-30.0 MMT. Vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 29.4 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 26.3 MMT
    • Durum wheat average estimate 5.0 MMY, range of estimates are 4.8-5.1 MMT vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 4.9 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 4.5 MMT
    • Canola average estimate 15.0 MMT , range of estimates are 14.6-15.3 MMT. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 14.1 MMT and Stats Can 5 year average of 13.2 MMT
    • Oats average estimate 3.2 MMT , range of estimates 3.0-3.3 MMT vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 3.2 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 3.1 MMT

 

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg