News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

“Never allow the fear of striking out keep you from playing the game!”

― Babe Ruth

 

Egypt GASC is in for wheat for August shipment .  Should have results shortly

 

Overnight closes

  • SX down 8 at 1275 ½
  • CZ  down 4 at 498
  • WU  up 1 at 666
  • SMZ down 4.30 at 381.70
  • BOZ up 12 at 4563
  • RRU  up 4.50 at 1532.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 16,353
  • CZ 21,701
  • WU 2,853
  • SMZ 6,387
  • BOZ 7,898
  • RRU 23

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 7-9 lower
  • Corn 3-5 lower
  • Wheat 1-2 higher
  • Meal 4-5 lower
  • Bean oil 10-20 higher
  • Rice 4-5 higher

 

Crude, gold, silver, dollar, and stock market are higher this morning

 

Nikkei up 1.324%

Hang Seng down .125%

Shanghai Index down 1.059%

 

Weekly US jobless claims came out this morning at – 24K to 334K expecting 340K

 

Palm oil up 41. Chinese grain markets lower

 

Oil World estimated ‘13/14 global palm oil output at a record high 58.2 MMT up 4.4% from ‘12/13

 

South Korea Kocopia bought 55K optional origin corn for Nov shipment

 

South Korea millers bought 35,200 tons of Australian wheat for October shipment

 

Brazil seeks 200K US HRW wheat due to tight supplies in Argentina

 

Frost threatens Brazil’s wheat crop

 

There are rumors around of Argentine meal coming into the US,  but nothing shows up in South American lineups

 

Jordan bought 100K optional origin wheat for Dec shipment

 

Japan bought 112,176 tons of milling wheat for Aug/Oct shipment Breakdown

  • 23,392 tons of HRW US wheat
  • 25,579 tons of Dark Northern spring US wheat
  • 36,420 tons of western red spring Canadian wheat
  • 26,785 tons of Australian white wheat

 

Japan bought 13,050 tons of optional origin feed wheat via SBS tender for October shipment

 

Argentine Ag Min estimated Argentina’s ‘12/13 bean crop at 49.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 50.2 MMT

 

Argentine Ag Min estimated Argentina’s ‘13/14 wheat crop at 12.0 MMT vs. ‘12/13 output of 9.0 MMT

 

Argentina Ag Min estimated Argentina’s ‘13/14 wheat area at 4.0 MH unchanged from previous estimate

 

Forecasts for rain in the US corn belt

 

4 bean receipts canceled yesterday afternoon out of CIRM Chicago IL

 

13 bean oil receipts canceled yesterday afternoon out of Cargill Ackley IA

 

13 meal receipts canceled yesterday afternoon out of Louis Dreyfus Claypool IN

 

95 rice receipts canceled yesterday afternoon

 

July 8th low on Dec corn was 490.

 

Nov bean 50 day moving average is 1268 ¾

 

Nov bean 200 day moving average is 1282 ¼

 

Weekly US export sales report

  • Wheat ‘13/14 996,600 tons (expecting 1.0-1.3 million)
  • Corn ‘12/13 152,900 tons ‘13/14 1.59 million tons (expecting 600-950K)
  • Beans ‘12/13 110,600 tons ‘13/14 591,700 tons (expecting 350-700K)
  • Meal ‘12/13 41,600 tons ‘13/14 11,500 tons (expecting 50-150K)
  • Bean oil ‘12/13 10,600 tons (expecting 0-20K)
  • Cotton ‘12/13 50,400 bales ‘13/14 40,100 bales

 

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 996,600 MT for delivery in the 2013/2014 marketing year were primarily for China (420,000 MT), Brazil (124,000 MT, including 50,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 40,200 MT), South Korea (95,000 MT), Chile (69,700 MT), and Indonesia (68,300 MT). Decreases were reported for El Salvador (9,100 MT), unknown destinations (5,800 MT), the Philippines (1,100 MT), and Costa Rica (800 MT). Exports of 726,000 MT were primarily to Brazil (172,000 MT), Mexico (90,300 MT), Peru (90,100 MT), Indonesia (68,300 MT), Guatemala (52,600 MT), Japan (48,000 MT), and Chile (31,700 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 152,900 MT for 2012/2013 were down 61 percent from the previous week and 44 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases for Japan (178,000 MT, including 132,800 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 5,600 MT), Venezuela (70,600 MT, including 63,600 MT switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (68,800 MT), El Salvador (5,200 MT, including 4,800 MT switched from Guatemala), and Taiwan (4,100 MT), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (176,500 MT) and Guatemala (3,600 MT). Net sales of 1,590,800 MT for 2013/2014 were primarily for China (1,263,000 MT), unknown destinations (212,600 MT), and Japan (61,000 MT). Exports of 407,300 MT were up 53 percent from the previous week and 49 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (174,000 MT), Venezuela (102,600 MT), Mexico (50,700 MT), and Costa Rica (27,500 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales of 110,600 MT for 2012/2013 were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Increases for Mexico (69,400 MT), Thailand (20,000 MT), South Korea (13,000 MT), Japan (9,400 MT, including 9,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 300 MT), and Taiwan (5,400 MT), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (9,000 MT) and Indonesia (600 MT). Net sales of 591,700 MT for 2013/2014 were primarily for unknown destinations (257,600 MT) and China (240,500 MT). Exports of 121,300 MT were up 57 percent from the previous week, but down 5 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (75,700 MT), Japan (14,700 MT), Vietnam (10,400 MT), Taiwan (6,200 MT), and Indonesia (6,100 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales of 41,600 MT for 2012/2013 resulted as increases for Mexico (30,900 MT), Venezuela (30,000 MT, including 22,500 MT switched from unknown destinations), Honduras (16,100 MT, including 13,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 300 MT), the Philippines (14,800 MT), Guatemala (9,600 MT, including 8,700 MT switched from El Salvador), and Canada (8,500 MT), were partially offset by decreases for Colombia (50,000 MT), unknown destinations (22,500 MT), and El Salvador (8,300 MT). Net sales of 38,000 MT for 2013/2014 were primarily for unknown destinations (22,000 MT) and Turkey (14,000 MT). Exports of 215,500 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were the Philippines (58,500 MT), Mexico (41,600 MT), Venezuela (27,000 MT), Honduras (20,500 MT), and Canada (16,900 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 10,600 MT for 2012/2013 resulted as increases for Mexico (9,500 MT), Nicaragua (900 MT), and Canada 700 MT), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (600 MT). Exports of 11,200 MT were down 48 percent from the previous week, but up 44 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (7,800 MT), Canada (2,400 MT), Nicaragua (900 MT), and Australia (100 MT).
  • Cotton – Net Upland sales of 50,400 running bales for 2012/2013 were up 54 percent from the previous week and 4 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for China (21,600 RB, including 400 RB switched from Japan), Turkey (6,800 RB), Taiwan (4,500 RB), Bangladesh (4,400 RB), and South Korea (4,300 RB). Decreases were reported for Indonesia (2,500 RB), Japan (1,600 RB), and El Salvador (1,200 RB). Net sales of 40,100 RB for 2013/2014 were reported primarily for Brazil (19,800 RB), Mexico (15,600 RB), and Turkey (12,300 RB). Decreases were reported for Vietnam (11,000 RB) and Morocco (1,400 RB). Exports of 128,700 RB were up 1 percent from the previous week, but down 20 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (35,000 RB), Turkey (28,500 RB), Mexico (15,100 RB), South Korea (9,100 RB), and Vietnam (8,700 RB). Net American Pima sales of 4,800 RB for 2012/2013 resulted as increases for China (3,100 RB) and Thailand (2,600 RB, switched from India), were partially offset by decreases for India (1,300 RB). Net sales of 5,300 RB for 2013/2014 were for China (4,900 RB) and India (400 RB). Exports of 11,100 RB were down 19 percent from the previous week and 29 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (7,200 RB), Peru (1,400 RB), and Indonesia (900 RB).

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • BOZ 171,061 open, down 822
  • Total bean oil 342,439 open, down 2,842
  • CZ 544,806 open, up 5,149
  • Total corn 1,121,416 open, up 6,661
  • SX 329,429 open, up 3,635
  • Total beans 528,599 open, up 5,813
  • SMZ 155,804 open, up 669
  • Total meal 269,659 open, up 507
  • WU 194,296 open , down 764
  • Total wheat 401,963 open, down 901

 

 

Upcoming Reports/events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CDT expecting +65 Billion
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CDT
  • G20 finance ministers and central bankers meet on Friday and Saturday
  • Surveyor Intertek Agri Services comes out on Saturday with their Malaysian July 1-20th palm oil export estimates
  • Surveyor SGS comes out on Monday with their Malaysian July 1-20th palm oil export estimates
  • Based on a Reuters poll of 15 analysts . 2013 Canadian crop estimates – Stats Can comes out on Aug 21st with their crop report
    • All wheat average estimate 29.7 MMT , range of estimates are 27.4-30.0 MMT. Vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 29.4 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 26.3 MMT
    • Durum wheat average estimate 5.0 MMY, range of estimates are 4.8-5.1 MMT vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 4.9 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 4.5 MMT
    • Canola average estimate 15.0 MMT , range of estimates are 14.6-15.3 MMT. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 14.1 MMT and Stats Can 5 year average of 13.2 MMT
    • Oats average estimate 3.2 MMT , range of estimates 3.0-3.3 MMT vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 3.2 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 3.1 MMT

 

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg