News From The Grain Floor

Good morning.

 

In honor of last night’s  All-Star Game we offer a true classic – yes longer than most quotes but worth it.

 

“Ray. People will come, Ray. They’ll come to Iowa for reasons they can’t even fathom. They’ll turn up your driveway not knowing for sure why they’re doing it. They’ll arrive at your door as innocent as children, longing for the past. “Of course, we won’t mind if you look around”, you’ll say, “It’s only $20 per person”. They’ll pass over the money without even thinking about it: for it is money they have and peace they lack. And they’ll walk out to the bleachers; sit in shirtsleeves on a perfect afternoon. They’ll find they have reserved seats somewhere along one of the baselines, where they sat when they were children and cheered their heroes. And they’ll watch the game and it’ll be as if they dipped themselves in magic waters. The memories will be so thick they’ll have to brush them away from their faces. People will come Ray. The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. America has rolled by like an army of steamrollers. It has been erased like a blackboard, rebuilt and erased again. But baseball has marked the time. This field, this game: it’s a part of our past, Ray. It reminds us of all that once was good and that could be again. Oh…people will come Ray. People will most definitely come.”

― James Earl Jones

 

USDA announced 165K tons of beans sold to China for ‘13/14 delivery

 

Overnight closes

  • SX down 4 at 1282 ¼
  • CZ down 3 ¾ at 507
  • WU up 1 ¼ at 670 ¾
  • SMZ down 2.40 at 386.20
  • BOZ down 2 at 4526
  • RRU down 3.50 at 1522.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 13,404
  • CZ 15,111
  • WU 3,055
  • SMZ 5,682
  • BOZ 8,304
  • RRU 10

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 3-5 lower
  • Corn 3-5 lower
  • Wheat 1-2 higher
  • Meal 1-2 lower
  • Bean oil steady lower
  • Rice 2-4 lower

 

Dollar higher. Stock market, silver, gold, and crude lower.

 

Nikkei up .109%

Hang Seng up .279%

Shanghai  Index down 1.005%

 

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday

  • Crude a draw of 2.6 MB expecting a draw of 2.0 MB
  • Gas a build of 2.6 MB expecting a draw of 500K
  • Distillates a build of 3.8 MB expecting a build of 1.9 MB

 

Palm oil up 24. Chinese grain markets higher except corn was unchanged and palm oil was lower

 

August meal made a new contract high overnight of 471.40. Yesterday’s high was 470.70

 

TALK/RUMORS of US importing meal from South America

 

Brazilian bean cargo to Port of Wilmington NC is on its way

 

Hearing China has bought up to 350K South American bean oil for Sept shipment

 

Hearing Egypt bought 30,500 sunflower oil for Aug shipment

 

South Korea flour mills bought 42,300 tons of US wheat for Sept shipment including soft white, HRW, and DNS.

 

South Korea KFA bought 60K Black Sea origin corn for Dec shipment

 

South Korea flour mills bought 40K Australian wheat Oct/Nov shipment

 

Article on Reuters – North China wheat damaged by frost and rains, more damage seen than originally expected. 20 MMT or 16%  of China wheat crops have been downgraded to animal feed . Analysts estimated China’s ‘13/14 wheat imports at above 10 MMT vs. USDA estimate of 8.5 MMT. China may top Egypt as biggest as biggest wheat buyer . Egypt buy about 9.0 MMT of wheat annually  . China has bought 3.0 MMT of wheat so far this season

 

China seeks 500K new crop Australian wheat for Jan March shipment

 

Taiwan BSPA makes no purchase in tender for 60K Brazilian beans  for October shipment

 

Article on Reuters reads storms have damaged some crops in Manitoba, Canada but Canadian grain crop looks good overall

 

Increased coverage for rain this weekend in Midwest favoring Northern and northwest

 

Concerns about dryness in Iowa

 

144 wheat receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of The Andersons Maumee OH

 

31 ethanol receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon

 

77 bean receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon

  • 11 out of ADM Ottawa N IL
  • 22 out of ADM Creve Coeur IL
  • 11 out of ADM Hennepin IL
  • 22 out of ADM Lacon IL
  • 11 out of CIRM Chicago IL

 

27 bean oil receipts canceled yesterday afternoon

  • 6 out of Cargill Ackley IA
  • 21 out of Cargill Buffalo IA

 

1 meal receipt canceled yesterday afternoon out of Louis Dreyfus Claypool IN

 

200 day moving average in Nov beans is 1282 ½

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • BOZ 171,916 open, down 1,602
  • Total bean oil 345,450 open, up 197
  • CZ 539,820 open, down 1,022
  • Total corn 1,114,846 open, down 1,155
  • SX 325,960 open, up 853
  • Total beans 523,056 open, up 3,159
  • SMZ 155,171 open, up 1,578
  • Total meal 296,666 open, up 5,173
  • KCWU 87,419 open, up 23
  • Total KC wheat 142,254 open, up 265
  • WU 195,080 open, down 1,734
  • Total wheat 403,080 open, down 1,876

 

 

Upcoming Reports/events

  • Weekly DOE #s comes out today at 930 am CDT expecting
    • Crude a draw of 1.875 MB
    • Gas a draw of 1.95 MB
    • Distillates a build of 650K
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production comes out today at 930 am CDT
  • Weekly US jobless claims comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT
  • G20 finance ministers and central bankers meet on Friday and Saturday
  • Based on a Reuters poll of 15 analysts . 2013 Canadian crop estimates – Stats Can comes out on Aug 21st with their crop report
    • All wheat average estimate 29.7 MMT , range of estimates are 27.4-30.0 MMT. Vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 29.4 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 26.3 MMT
    • Durum wheat average estimate 5.0 MMY, range of estimates are 4.8-5.1 MMT vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 4.9 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 4.5 MMT
    • Canola average estimate 15.0 MMT , range of estimates are 14.6-15.3 MMT. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 14.1 MMT and Stats Can 5 year average of 13.2 MMT
    • Oats average estimate 3.2 MMT , range of estimates 3.0-3.3 MMT vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 3.2 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 3.1 MMT

 

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg