News From The Grain Floor

Good morning – Due to technical difficulties this morning my morning wire is abbreviated I will send additional news shortly. Analysts on the trading floor are saying the rally is due to short covering and north central US Midwest is too dry . Light showers yesterday and heavier showers are in the forecast for today and tomorrow . 6-10 day forecast drier for north central and eastern areas and 11-15 day is wetter for northwest areas. IL, IN, KA, and NE could use more rain.

 

As democracy is perfected, the office of the President represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day, the plain folks of the land will reach their heart’s desire at last and the White House will be occupied by a downright fool and complete narcissistic moron.
H.L. Mencken

 

Overnight closes

  • SX up 23 ¼ at 1275 ½
  • CZ up 11 at 511 ½
  • WU up 14 ¾ at 677 ¾
  • SMZ up 9.30 at 377.50
  • BOZ up 19 at 4608
  • RRU up 9.50 at 1490

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 23,098
  • CZ 29,805
  • WU 9,269
  • SMZ 8,645
  • BOZ 7,542
  • RRU 83

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 20-25 higher
  • Corn 10-15 higher
  • Wheat 12-15 higher
  • Meal 8-10 higher
  • Bean oil 15-25 higher
  • Rice 7-10 higher

 

Dollar and stock market higher . Gold and silver higher. Crude lower.

 

Nikkei down 1.367%

Hang Seng down 1.30%

Shanghai index up .374%

 

China’s June CPI +2.7% expecting +2.5% and vs. +2.1% in May

 

China’s June PPI – 2.7% – 16th straight month of decline

 

Argentine markets are closed for holiday today.

 

Palm oil up 23. Chinese grain markets higher except palm oil was lower.

 

Deliveries

  • KC wheat 17 with the date at 7/02 – House Term stopped 4, House ADM stopped 11
  • Chicago wheat 2 with the date at 5/01/13
  • No corn , meal, bean oil , Minneapolis wheat and beans

 

 

Weekly COT supplemental report from yesterday. Large Spec positions as of 7/02/13 futures and options combined

  • Wheat short 72,283
  • KC Wheat short 19,123
  • Corn short 91,833
  • Beans long 68,556
  • Meal long 34,909
  • Bean oil short 91,814

 

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday

 

Corn

  • Condition 68% good to excellent up 1% from a week ago (as expected) and vs. 40% a year ago
  • Silking 6% vs. 3% a week ago and vs. 20% 5 year average

 

Beans

  • Condition 67% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago (Market was expecting conditions to go up 1%) and vs. 40% a year ago and vs. 5 year average of 59% good to excellent
  • Emerged 95% vs. 91% a week ago and vs. 97% 5 year average
  • Blooming 10% vs. 42% a year ago and vs. 24% 5 year average

 

Spring Wheat

  • Condition 72% good to excellent up 4% from a week ago and vs. 66% a year ago
  • Emerged 98% vs. 93% a week ago and vs. 99% 5 year average
  • Headed 45% vs. 18% a week ago and vs. 53% 5 year average

 

Winter Wheat

  • Condition 34% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago
  • Harvested 57% vs. 43% a week ago and vs. 64% 5 year average

 

Rice

  • Condition 69% good to excellent up 3% from a week ago and unchanged from a year ago
  • Headed 9% vs. 7% a week ago and vs. 14% 5 year average

 

Cotton

  • Condition 44% good to excellent down 3% from a week ago and vs. 44% a year ago
  • Squaring 51% vs. 37% a week ago and vs. 63% 5 year average
  • Setting Bolls 10% vs. 6% a week ago and vs. 18% 5 year average

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CN 7,137 open, down 3,146
  • CZ 540,333 open, down 3,255
  • Total corn 1,114,090 open, down 6,106
  • SN 5,101 open, down 1,230
  • SX 327,237 open, down 3,003
  • Total beans 520,166 open, down 2,421
  • SMN 4,235 open, down 1,508
  • SMZ 153,175 open, down 465
  • Total meal 289,428 open, down 862
  • BON 2,186 open, down 911
  • BOZ 162,237 open, down 42
  • Total bean oil 339,825 open, up 2,428
  • WN 931 open, down 197
  • WU 208,727 open , down 1,092
  • Total wheat 411,837 open, down 1,951

 

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CDT
  • Weekly DOE numbers come out tomorrow at 930 am CDT expecting
    • Crude a draw of 3.1 MB
    • Gas a build of 1.0 MB
    • Distillates a build of 1.0 MB
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT
  • On July 10th Brazilian dockers will stop operations in major ports on July 11th port workers will strike on all Brazilian ports
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services come out with July 1-10 Malaysian export estimates on July 10th
  • Malaysia Palm Oil Board comes out on July 10th with their June data report. Based on a Reuters survey here are estimates for the report
    • Palm oil output average estimate is 1.47  MMT vs. May output of  1.384 MMT
    • Palm oil stocks average estimate is 1.74 MMT vs. May stocks of 1.816 MMT
    • Palm oil exports average estimate is 1.45 MMT vs. May exports of  1.412 MMT
  • FOMC to read minutes from 6/18-6/19 meeting on Wednesday
  • USDA July supply and demand and crop production report comes out July 11th at 11 am CDT – USDA does not release survey of corn and bean output until August report – surveys for the report will come out later in the day today
  • Last trading day for July futures is July 12th at noon CDT

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg